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Top stories

Mike Pence Urges Senate to Enact Secondary Sanctions on Russia, Calls on Trump to Toughen Policy Amid Ukraine Conflict

US Foreign Policy

Mike Pence Urges Senate to Enact Secondary Sanctions on Russia, Calls on Trump to Toughen Policy Amid Ukraine Conflict

Authors

5

9 months ago

Prediction markets for Eastern Europe

Where will the next Pokémon region be inspired by?

Apr 24, 6:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

206527

OptionProbability

South-East Asia

Oceania

South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

North America

Mexico / Central America / Caribbean

South America

Northern Europe (Nordics and British Isles)

Eastern Europe / Central Asia (Former USSR)

Western Europe (France to Poland)

Southern Europe (Iberian Peninsula, Italy, Balkans, Greece)

Middle East & Northern Africa

East Asia

98

25

4

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.87%chance

234991

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5409

2578

Will the American Bullfrog (Aquarana catesbeianus) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 28, 11:28 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

2.18%chance

41155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1654

352

Next Commission president from Eastern Europe?

May 20, 2:16 AMDec 30, 3:04 AM

28.83%chance

5949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1571

636

WW3 begins in 2026

Jan 6, 7:33 PMJun 6, 9:59 PM

8.47%chance

10534

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

83

If the US buys Greenland and makes it a state, will it vote for a Democrat in the subsequent presidential election?

Dec 6, 8:43 PMNov 19, 9:59 PM

78.32%chance

11528

OptionVotes

NO

YES

190

53

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.06%chance

8279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

103

Will there be a ceasfire in Ukraine at the end of 2027?

Mar 16, 6:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.6%chance

9151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

141

71

When will freedom.gov go live?

Mar 4, 5:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2141

OptionProbability

May 1, 2026 – August 31, 2026

September 1, 2026 – Dec 31, 2026

Jan 1, 2027 +

On or Before April 30, 2026

63

18

15

4

Poland: Will Daniel Obajtek be jailed by 2030?

Dec 21, 3:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.24%chance

482

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

36

Will a Global South pavilion win the Golden Lion at Venice 2026?

Feb 16, 11:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.84%chance

280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

926

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