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Prediction markets for Education

Will the US eliminate the Department of Education through law or presidential reorganization before 2026?

Jan 23, 12:35 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6%chance

5285194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

37235

5859

Will we have an AGI as smart as a "generally educated human" by the end of 2025?

Aug 7, 9:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

23.86%chance

26967658

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

1051

Will the US Department of Education cease to exist during the Trump administration?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMFeb 21, 4:59 AM

19.09%chance

7621508

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1566

92

Treasury shuts off Congressionally authorized payments to Department of Education by December 31, 2025

Feb 4, 4:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.74%chance

258597

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10639

9487

If elected, will Donald Trump dismantle the department of education as promised?

Jun 26, 4:34 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

71.3%chance

487487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1576

634

Department of Education abolished by July 4, 2026

Nov 21, 7:57 AMJul 4, 12:00 AM

15.09%chance

325579

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2372

422

Will ChatBots become an indispensable tool for most children's K-12 grade education in the United States before the end of the decade (<2030)?

Jan 3, 2:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

433878

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1160

731

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4193

4124

Will evolutionary psychology be adopted into mainstream psychology education by 2050?

Apr 8, 9:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

77.03%chance

19567

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1413

831

Will the cost of higher education in the US maintain an average growth rate above 3% until 2040?

Apr 16, 9:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.88%chance

13540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1338

666

There will be no restrictions on Chinese citizens ability to access education or healthcare in any city with more than 10 million people based on rural Hukou by the end of 2025

Sep 8, 12:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.88%chance

14518

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1068

958

Will the next leader of Russia after Putin have gotten a western education [in US or Europe (EU)]?

Oct 25, 7:40 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

31.41%chance

16398

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

930

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