OptionProbability
Elon Musk
Bill Gates
Jeff Bezos
Other
Barack Obama
Mr. Beast
Robert Caro
Donald Trump
Kamala Harris
JD Vance
Sam Altman
Gwern Branwen
roon
Geoffrey Hinton
Leonardo DiCaprio
Ilya Sutskever
Jensen Huang
Peter Thiel
No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific
Sarah Paine
Satya Nadella
Justin Trudeau
Brian Shaw (_biggest_ guest yet?)
Narendra Modi
Xi Jinping
Dalai Lama
Buffett
Taylor Swift
Joe Biden
Lebron James
GPT-5
Bill Clinton
A basketball player
Vladimir Putin
Benjamin Netanyahu
Jesus Christ
Rona Wang
Jose Luis ricon
Kettner Griswold
James Koppel
Sam Bankman-Fried
Nancy Pelosi
Rishi Sunak
Keir Starmer
Satoshi Nakomoto
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Jimmy Carter
George W Bush
Al Gore
Michael Jackson
your mom
Mitt Romney
one or both of his parents
A new OpenAI AI model not called "GPT-5"
Connor Duffy
MBS
pope Francis
Scott Alexander
The Mountain (Icelandic strongman)
RFK Jr
Sydney Sweeney
growing_daniel
greg16676935420
Deadpool
Terence Tao
Shaq
Oprah Winfrey
Yoshua Bengio
Sundar Pichai
Scarlett Johansson
Paul McCartney
[duplicate]
Neel Nanda
King Charles
Kim Jong Un
Gavin Newsom
Royal Palace
[cancelled option]
Daniel Yergin
Peter Singer
Gabe Newell
Neil Gorsuch
Stephen Breyer
Dmitry Medvedev
JK Rowling
Shrek
Sam Hyde
[invalid answer] Multiple people e.g. a team from OpenAI
Marques Brownlee
Vivek Ramaswamy
Donald Trump Jr.
Ben Shindel
Javier Milei
Dylan Patel
Joe Rogan
Marc Andreessen
Tim Cook
Mike Tyson
Jake Paul
Matt Gaetz
32
15
12
9
4
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
call someone retarded through text or speech
Take control of the army National Guard of a state (not just announcement)
A literal red line on the ground/floor
complete 50% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Initiates low intensity conflict with Venezuela
Weaponize Federal Procurement: Launch a DOJ criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell’s $2.5B renovation probity, while simultaneously accepting $400M in private corporate donations for the White House 'State Ballroom'.
refuse to accept results of 2026 midterms in at least one state
repeal or reform the dietary guidelines
request and successfully redraw 1 or more state districts
explicitly conditions FEMA aid to a blue state on unrelated ideological issue
pass 500 or more executive orders
Stays alive
complete 66% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
request and successfully redraw 2 or more state districts
intervenes to stop a federal criminal investigation into a high ranking republican
Pardons an officer for a crime committed on the job enforcing immigration laws
Military against drug cartells on venezuelas ground
Eliminate the two-person train crew safety regulations (DoT request from Project 2025)
new blockade of a country
request and successfully redraw 3 or more state districts
sends USA troops to enter Mexico without permission
put his name on a ship in the navy
have any governmental officials visit Taiwan formally or informally
order the arrest of a governor by name even if it does not happen
forcibly shuts down a windmill farm power plant or revokes permits etc
declare war and send troops to aggressively enter any new country
have a journalist arrested
Pardon himself
Trump will pardon those involved before the sentencing - medical fraud schemes
Revoke ten or more citizenships
issue circulation coin or bill with his image or pass laws to do that in the near future
Causes Tina Peters' early release
Call for the banning of HRT (hormone replacement therapy)
ten or more protestors killed during term
sells 100 square miles or more of federal property to private owners or other countries
Mandate teaching Arabic numerals in East (American) Samoan schools
closes 1 or more national parks (63 as of question creation)
File lawsuit against a congressperson
complete 75% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
Uses the US military or National Guard to prevent at least one legal voter from casting a ballot during 2028 election
Nominate a family member to high office
Enforce the Comstock Act at least once
Remove tax exempt status from one or more universities
Dep
Appoint a crony, such as Bondi, or his personal lawyers, to SCOTUS
call for twitter / x to ban account of a democrat politician
Orders an agency under federal control to arrest a congressperson
Sunset the Office of Accountability and Whistleblower Protection (Veteran Affairs)
add a new federal holiday in his honor
Weaken regulations on baby formula as per project 2025
Bans / restricts guns for trans people (or tries to)
Raise the retirement age for social security
stops all sanctions on Russia
Raise contribution limits (FEC)
Lessen child labor regulations to allow "teenage workers" to work "inherently dangerous jobs". (DoL)
Order the arrest of a sitting member of congress
Actually privatizes at least part of the USPO
resume buying oil from Russia
revoke broadcasting licenses of a media company he does not like
force a former president to testify before Congress
have the DOJ "classify educators and public librarians" who discuss "transgender ideology" with minors as "sex offenders." as per project 2025
Gets angry with Putin and renews (also indirect) nuclear threat.
get ukraine to agree to give up ALL of the donbas AND crimea to russia
classify "transgender ideology" as "domestic terrorism," as per The Daily Wire
Accept a gift of an airplane to *himself personally* (not a gift to the US government)
His name is on the ballot for the 2028 Republican primaries in any state/territory
Call for the death penalty of any former president by name
have FBI DOJ or other agency charge a congressperson with treason
Postpone the elections due to emergency
Closes or makes radical ideological changes to The National Museum of African American History and Culture
Enact price controls on groceries
Have USA test a nuclear bomb anywhere
Kidnap *another* head of state (after Maduro)
call someone a pedophile explicitely by name through text or speech
remove a major non NATO ally from the current list
Pardons a private citizen for an act in opposition to an anti-trump protest
repeal the Federal Sugar program (USDA) as suggested by project 2025
Add a citizenship question to the census
End congressional review of arms transfers to foreign countries (DoD)
host putin at mar a lago
Airstrikes or bombs Mexican territory (drone artillery etc count)
federalize a city or area currently under control of another state (not DC)
complete 90% of project 2025 as reported by project2025.observer
repeal the federal mandate to label genetically engineered food (as per project 2025)
Eliminate ACA's requirement to cover the morning after pill
expand the borders of the usa
Call for the default of the United States sovereign debt
Pardons someone acting as a private citizen for an act in support of immigration enforcement (not an on duty officer)
Prosecute someone for flag burning
department of defense renamed to Dept of war
delete Juneteenth as a federal holiday
Deports at least one athlete during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Pardon a convicted pedophile
appoint a family member to lead any federal agency
declare he has officially undone a past presidential pardon
Impose time-limits on how long low-income people can receive Medicaid in their lifetime
force a census to happen when it normally wouldnt
Get rid of Noaa.
Says 6 7 (or variant)
enact special taxes or tariffs on a subset of states he does not like
Causes derek chauvin's early release
Deploy US troops into any of 83 Federal subjects of Russian Federation (or announce that)
Call for the end of the House of Reps
Deports at least one Olympic athlete during the 2028 Summer Olympics
Pass a federal "Parents' Bill of Rights" with regard to Education
take control of a part of greenland
Gets influence on Gaza strip to make investment deals with real estate or buys land.
All 10 of the 10 largest protests in the USA happen under trump
Eliminate the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis
repeal Obamacare
pardon derek chauvin
admin stops reccomending fluorinated water entirely
Privatize the FEMA National Flood Insurance Program
federally mandate ten commandments or Bible in classrooms
debank a congressperson governor or mayor
expand the supreme Court and appoint someone new
Prohibit use of aborted fetal cells in research for new medical applications as per project 2025
Eliminate the U.S. Trade and Development Agency
Remove all federal funding for SNAP/food stamps
Threatening to attack a US defence pact ally (e.g. NATO, Rio Pact etc.) with nuclear weapons
actually disinter bodies from another country
Call for the end of child marriage
Four or more protestors/bystanders killed by national guard/military in one day
Repeal of the Antiquities Act of 1906
Eliminate the Federal Reserve mission of full employment
Eliminate all administrative proceedings within the SEC
orders arrests of any Biden family member
Annex any part of Mexico
cause Fox, nbc CNN MSNBC or another main news channel to shut down
announce that a part of Canada belongs to the USA
Remove all unions in the Dept. of Homeland Security
Prevent the VA from covering abortion services
Replace his Vice President
confiscate 1 million or more from the Democratic party itself
Dissolve/shut down/abolish NASA
Eliminate the Office of Children’s Health Protection
ends black history month
Calls himself a dictator or unambiguous synonym (without equivocating)
Salute Putin
Eliminate the Office of Enforcement and Compliance Assistance (EPA)
cancel the 2028 election / it doesnt happen for any reason
remove tax exempt from only certain religions
have a supreme court justice impeached and/or removed
declares a white history month
threaten to disinter bodies from another country
Require all schools that receive federal funding to give students the military entrance test.
Mandate time-and-a-half compensation on a Sabbath (project 2025 request)
change it so that presidents can serve 3 or more terms again
fauci in jail at least one week
take control of a part of ukraine
confiscate 1 million or more from an individual Congress person
add a new state
pardon george santos
take state ownership in an airline
Attack a NATO ally.
Pardon p diddy
Repeal the Global Change Research Act of 1990
changes the logo or name of a previously offensive sport team (pressures until they actually do it)
Implement a federal age of consent
Eliminate the DOE Loan Program
Delist the grizzly bear AND gray wolf from the Endangered Species Act
Call for the assassination of the leader of an allied nation
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Four or more protestors (or bystanders) killed by national guard
New restrictions on SSRIs (including a ban)
Sides with Putin because he has compromising information against Trump regarding the Epstein files.
Call for the end of gay marriage
Announce he’s running for a third term
Pardon ghislaine maxwell
Fully or partially privatize Social Security
make statements that are negative about labubu
Call for the abolition of the voting rights act or the 15th amendment
breaks ground on a trump building in Gaza
fully nationalize an airline
Call for the end of the Senate
Implement a federal abortion ban
Wind down and privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Does Nazi / Roman salute with same passion as Elon's gesture
ban trans people from holding federal offices
stop California from hosting the Olympics
Deports all the athletes of at least one nation during the 2028 Summer Olympics
ban all new incoming students from china and/or india
change or add a face on Mount Rushmore
change the borders of a state
breaks ground on a trump building in Russia
Detonates a nuclear weapon as an act of war
repeal an amendment
Withdraw from NATO
give sell or otherwise transfer a part of Alaska to Russia
Abolish the Federal Reserve and move to a "free banking" system
enter a mutual defense partnership with russia or north korea
Call for the end of interracial marriage
After the ballroom he starts building a palace for the future Trump-Monarchy
bans anime
bans 6 7
all time high unemployment reached
Wearing a white dress after labor day
Ban construction of new windmills in the USA for power generation
Dept of defense renamed to dept of peace
100
100
100
100
100
95
89
88
88
84
84
83
83
81
76
76
76
75
75
74
71
71
71
70
70
69
69
67
66
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63
63
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60
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57
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9
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8
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8
7
7
7
7
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7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
3
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
Bond will be a man
Gunplay
Bond drives a car
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Car chase scene
Urban scene
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
Bond tells ≥1 joke
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Bond drinks a martini
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Sex scene
World capital other than London appears on screen
Hacking electronics of some form
Q appears
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The main theme song will be sung by a female
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
Someone in the movie says the title
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
At least a portion filmed in Canada
Blue-eyed Bond
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Casino game scene
>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Bond gets slapped
Prison/jail scene
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Black market trafficking
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
Skydiving
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
A scene shows James Bond naked
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
Death of a Bond love interest
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
Bond drives a boat
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Oral sex
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Desert scene
Nazis (neo- counts)
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond has facial hair
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Bond wears a mask
Sharks
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond will be in a submarine
Bond goes to space
Bond is LQBTQ+
Bond rides an animal
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Mexico is shown on screen
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
An EMP device plays a central role.
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
At least one named character below 18 years old
Canada is shown on screen
Orgy
Will feature something that can turn invisible
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Underwater combat
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Bond is blond
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)
A pinball machine will appear.
Pirates
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
Assplay
Bond plays Russian roulette
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
Bond won't be Caucasian
A hamburger appears on screen
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
Nuclear explosion
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Gay sex scene
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
Feature Nightcore music
Supernatural entities
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
Bond uses chopsticks
Released in 2026
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Vampires
Bond vapes
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
The fourth wall is broken
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
98
98
97
95
95
94
93
92
91
90
90
90
89
86
86
85
85
84
83
83
82
82
81
80
77
76
75
72
72
70
69
69
69
68
68
66
63
62
62
60
60
59
58
57
57
56
56
55
55
55
54
54
53
53
53
53
52
51
51
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50
50
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49
48
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46
45
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45
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32
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28
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27
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26
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25
25
25
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23
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22
22
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21
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20
20
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17
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12
12
12
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11
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
2030 and later
2026
2027
2028
2029
2024
2025
53
13
13
9
9
1
1
OptionProbability
Wolves
Burnley
West Ham
At least one of the 10 teams not otherwise listed
Leeds
Brentford
Fulham
Everton
Bournemouth
Crystal Palace
Sunderland
96
90
58
54
39
6
5
3
2
2
1
OptionProbability
Thomas Frank (Tottenham Hotspur)
TBC (Manchester United)
Nuno Espírito Santo (West Ham United)
Oliver Glasner (Crystal Palace)
Rob Edwards (Wolverhampton Wanderers)
Arne Slot (Liverpool)
Sean Dyche (Nottingham Forest)
Scott Parker (Burnley)
Mikel Arteta (Arsenal)
Unai Emery (Aston Villa)
Andoni Iraola (Bournemouth)
Keith Andrews (Brentford)
Fabian Hurzeler (Brighton)
TBC (Chelsea)
David Moyes (Everton)
Marco Silva (Fulham)
Daniel Farke (Leeds United)
Pep Guardiola (Manchester City)
Eddie Howe (Newcastle United)
Regis Le Bris (Sunderland)
46
10
8
6
6
5
4
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Arsenal
Man City
Other
Newcastle
Liverpool
Chelsea
Tottenham
Man United
45
20
19
7
5
2
1
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
988
950
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1439
947
OptionVotes
YES
NO
455
22
OptionVotes
NO
YES
112
89

