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Indonesia’s Mount Lewotobi Sends 18-Kilometre Ash Plume, Flights Cancelled

1 day ago

Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?

Apr 13, 10:30 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

23.49%chance

18021021808

OptionVotes

YES

17864

9273

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71.75%chance

464679780

OptionVotes

YES

17782

9207

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.05%chance

941600472

OptionVotes

YES

11197

8835

Which will be Manifold's largest revenue driver at the end of 2025?

Aug 11, 10:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

127565977

OptionProbability

Other

Mana purchases (or spread between sweeps purchase & redemption)

Fees from subsidizing or promoting markets

Subscription plan

On-site advertising

B2B income (e.g. setting up internal corporate markets)

Transactions fees from trades

Interest on held cash

Selling data / API access / colocation

House rake on games (e.g. poker)

Donations (e.g. Wikipedia)

Job board / hiring program

Sales of digital goods

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

29.63%chance

793419120

OptionVotes

YES

25141

17457

Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2025?

Jun 22, 11:41 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10%chance

531364457

OptionVotes

YES

2742

461

Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Oct 5, 1:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.04%chance

489137124

OptionVotes

YES

3134

2099

Will the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030?

Sep 1, 11:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

62.22%chance

441121733

OptionVotes

YES

3797

2487

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Jun 10, 7:37 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

70%chance

227113753

OptionVotes

YES

1528

655

Will Meta have a "mid-level" AI engineer that can write code by the end of 2025?

Jan 13, 7:06 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

15.68%chance

7147255

OptionVotes

YES

22945

4656

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.67%chance

9243679

OptionVotes

YES

1050

916

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Feb 7, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.92%chance

113578

OptionVotes

YES

13205

7968

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Aug 2, 2025
Aug 2, 2025
Indonesia
Natural Disasters
Environment
Indonesia’s Mount Lewotobi Sends 18-Kilometre Ash Plume, Flights Cancelled
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1 day ago

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Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Which will be Manifold's largest revenue driver at the end of 2025?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2025?

Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Will the majority of new cars sold be electric vehicles by the end of 2030?

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Will Meta have a "mid-level" AI engineer that can write code by the end of 2025?

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Latest stories

Join our channels

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Telegram