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Erie News

Erin Stock (Permanent)

Nov 5, 8:16 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

44293239

OptionProbability

YES

NO

2090

1762

Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2025?

Jan 5, 3:25 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

4025415

OptionProbability

New Glenn

H3

Long March 5

LVM3

Nuri

Zhuque 2

Zhuque 3

Tianlong 3

Long March 12A

Kinetica-2

Proton M

Ceres-2

Isar Spectrum

Pallas 1

Chollima 1

Qased

Kairos

Nebula-1

Hyperbola-3

Starship

Falcon Heavy

Ariane 64

Rocket Lab Neutron

Stoke Space Nova

ABL RS1

Astra Rocket 4

Skyrora XL

Gilmour Space Eris

Orbex Prime

Vikram 1

RFA One

Long March 10

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

49

47

34

32

30

9

7

7

7

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Eric Adams switches party affiliation from Democrat before January 1, 2026

Dec 4, 3:07 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

4.79%chance

2915172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4459

224

Eric Adams no longer identifies as a Democrat by December 31, 2025

Apr 12, 8:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.41%chance

273509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1974

506

Levy Rozman (Gotham Chess) or Eric Rosen becomes a GM by 2035

Jan 24, 10:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.21%chance

433114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

825

In what order will humans walk on these solar system bodies?

Apr 19, 1:14 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

141026

OptionProbability

Phobos

Deimos

Ceres

Vesta

Europa

Callisto

Ganymede

Titan

Pallas

Enceladus

Iapetus

Tethys

Miranda

Triton

Mercury

Pluto

Charon

Titania

Io

Venus

Eris

64

57

55

52

49

47

44

43

34

34

27

27

27

27

25

21

21

18

14

13

5

Which will be the first hybrid-propellant rocket to reach orbit?

Apr 4, 1:46 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

7729

OptionProbability

Eris (Gilmour Space)

None reach orbit by EOY 2035

Other

Kestrel V (ATSpace)

Aurora (Reaction Dynamics)

SL1 (HyImpulse)

61

18

7

6

5

4

Will there be HD real images (e.g. telescope, probe) of the dwarf planet Eris by 2030?

Jan 9, 3:47 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

12.5%chance

18649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

886

Will there be a successful orbital rocket launch from UK soil this decade? (Eric Berger prediction)

Feb 13, 7:22 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

50.64%chance

11550

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

987

Will a crossing of the Bab-el-Mandeb, between Yemen and Djibouti or Eritrea, have started construction by 2040?

Jul 4, 8:28 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

21.22%chance

13326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1122

944

Will Erik Hoel create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 5:21 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

64%chance

16307

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1060

959

Will the Eritrean government collapse before or within 5 years of Isaias Afwerki's death?

May 26, 3:54 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57.22%chance

3160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

865

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