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Erie News

Erin Stock (Permanent)

Nov 5, 8:16 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

44293258

OptionProbability

YES

NO

2070

1794

JD Vance and Erika Kirk run for president and VP in 2028?

Nov 17, 3:41 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

4%chance

196841

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4904

204

Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2026?

Feb 3, 3:57 PMDec 31, 3:15 PM

285510

OptionProbability

Falcon Heavy

Ariane 64

Proton M

H3

Long March 5

Zhuque 2

Zhuque 3

Pallas 1

Vikram 1

Kinetica-2

Long March 10B

Isar Spectrum

Long March 12A

Starship

Nuri

LVM3

Tianlong 3

Chollima 1

Agnibaan

Kairos

Long March 10A

Gilmour Space Eris

Ceres-2

Nebula-1

Epsilon S

Antares 330

RFA One

Hyperbola-3

Miura 5

GYUB

Skyrora XL

Qased

Stoke Space Nova

Terran R

Eclipse

Soyuz 5

Daytona 1

Astra Rocket 4

Rocket Lab Neutron

Orbex Prime

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

99

86

77

66

45

30

24

21

12

12

11

10

10

10

10

9

8

8

8

6

6

4

4

4

4

3

2

1

1

Levy Rozman (Gotham Chess) or Eric Rosen becomes a GM by 2035

Jan 24, 10:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.21%chance

433114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

825

In what order will humans walk on these solar system bodies?

Apr 19, 1:14 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

141026

OptionProbability

Phobos

Deimos

Ceres

Vesta

Europa

Callisto

Ganymede

Titan

Pallas

Enceladus

Iapetus

Tethys

Miranda

Triton

Mercury

Pluto

Charon

Titania

Io

Venus

Eris

64

57

55

52

49

47

44

43

34

34

27

27

27

27

25

21

21

18

14

13

5

Which will be the first hybrid-propellant rocket to reach orbit?

Apr 4, 1:46 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

8789

OptionProbability

Eris (Gilmour Space)

None reach orbit by EOY 2035

Other

Kestrel V (ATSpace)

Aurora (Reaction Dynamics)

SL1 (HyImpulse)

54

28

6

5

4

4

Will there be a successful orbital rocket launch from UK soil this decade? (Eric Berger prediction)

Feb 13, 7:22 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

55.73%chance

14789

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1122

891

Will there be HD real images (e.g. telescope, probe) of the dwarf planet Eris by 2030?

Jan 9, 3:47 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

12.5%chance

18649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

886

Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?

Nov 2, 4:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.7%chance

14622

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1157

406

Will Erik Hoel create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 5:21 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52.03%chance

18555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1159

782

Will the Eritrean government collapse before or within 5 years of Isaias Afwerki's death?

May 26, 3:54 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.59%chance

4410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1115

897

Will a crossing of the Bab-el-Mandeb, between Yemen and Djibouti or Eritrea, have started construction by 2040?

Jul 4, 8:28 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

22.1%chance

15338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1079

956

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