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Erie News

Erin Stock (Permanent)

Nov 5, 8:16 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

44293239

OptionProbability

YES

NO

2090

1762

JD Vance and Erika Kirk run for president and VP in 2028?

Nov 17, 3:41 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

4%chance

196841

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4904

204

Levy Rozman (Gotham Chess) or Eric Rosen becomes a GM by 2035

Jan 24, 10:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.21%chance

433114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

825

In what order will humans walk on these solar system bodies?

Apr 19, 1:14 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

141026

OptionProbability

Phobos

Deimos

Ceres

Vesta

Europa

Callisto

Ganymede

Titan

Pallas

Enceladus

Iapetus

Tethys

Miranda

Triton

Mercury

Pluto

Charon

Titania

Io

Venus

Eris

64

57

55

52

49

47

44

43

34

34

27

27

27

27

25

21

21

18

14

13

5

Which will be the first hybrid-propellant rocket to reach orbit?

Apr 4, 1:46 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

7739

OptionProbability

Eris (Gilmour Space)

None reach orbit by EOY 2035

Other

Aurora (Reaction Dynamics)

Kestrel V (ATSpace)

SL1 (HyImpulse)

60

20

6

5

5

4

Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2026?

Feb 3, 3:57 PMDec 31, 3:15 PM

10733

OptionProbability

Falcon Heavy

Starship

Ariane 64

Long March 12A

Proton M

LVM3

Vikram 1

Long March 5

H3

Nuri

Zhuque 3

Tianlong 3

Kairos

Kinetica-2

Long March 10A

Agnibaan

Soyuz 5

Rocket Lab Neutron

Zhuque 2

Isar Spectrum

Orbex Prime

RFA One

Ceres-2

Nebula-1

Hyperbola-3

Long March 10B

Miura 5

Epsilon S

Antares 330

Eclipse

Pallas 1

Qased

Chollima 1

Terran R

Daytona 1

Skyrora XL

GYUB

Stoke Space Nova

Astra Rocket 4

Gilmour Space Eris

94

93

83

83

76

76

76

72

66

66

66

66

66

66

66

66

66

60

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

34

34

24

24

24

20

17

15

11

11

Will there be HD real images (e.g. telescope, probe) of the dwarf planet Eris by 2030?

Jan 9, 3:47 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

12.5%chance

18649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

886

Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?

Nov 2, 4:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.46%chance

14587

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

442

Will there be a successful orbital rocket launch from UK soil this decade? (Eric Berger prediction)

Feb 13, 7:22 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

50.64%chance

11550

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

987

Will a crossing of the Bab-el-Mandeb, between Yemen and Djibouti or Eritrea, have started construction by 2040?

Jul 4, 8:28 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

21.22%chance

13326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1122

944

Will Erik Hoel create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 5:21 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

64%chance

16307

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1060

959

Will the Eritrean government collapse before or within 5 years of Isaias Afwerki's death?

May 26, 3:54 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57.22%chance

3160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

865

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