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Erie News

Erin Stock (Permanent)

Nov 5, 8:16 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

44293258

OptionProbability

YES

NO

2070

1794

Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2026?

Feb 3, 3:57 PMDec 31, 3:15 PM

297539

OptionProbability

Falcon Heavy

Ariane 64

Proton M

H3

Long March 5

Zhuque 2

Zhuque 3

Pallas 1

Vikram 1

Kinetica-2

Long March 10B

Starship

Nuri

Isar Spectrum

Ceres-2

Long March 12A

LVM3

Tianlong 3

Chollima 1

Agnibaan

Kairos

Long March 10A

Epsilon S

RFA One

Hyperbola-3

Miura 5

GYUB

Qased

Terran R

Eclipse

Soyuz 5

Daytona 1

Stoke Space Nova

Skyrora XL

Antares 330

Rocket Lab Neutron

Astra Rocket 4

Gilmour Space Eris

Orbex Prime

Nebula-1

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

99

99

99

99

86

58

30

24

21

12

12

10

9

8

8

8

6

4

4

4

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

JD Vance and Erika Kirk run for president and VP in 2028?

Nov 17, 3:41 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

4%chance

196841

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4904

204

Levy Rozman (Gotham Chess) or Eric Rosen becomes a GM by 2035

Jan 24, 10:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.21%chance

433114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

825

Will the Eritrean government collapse before or within 5 years of Isaias Afwerki's death?

May 26, 3:54 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

56.09%chance

81119

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1130

885

In what order will humans walk on these solar system bodies?

Apr 19, 1:14 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

141026

OptionProbability

Phobos

Deimos

Ceres

Vesta

Europa

Callisto

Ganymede

Titan

Pallas

Enceladus

Iapetus

Tethys

Miranda

Triton

Mercury

Pluto

Charon

Titania

Io

Venus

Eris

64

57

55

52

49

47

44

43

34

34

27

27

27

27

25

21

21

18

14

13

5

Which will be the first hybrid-propellant rocket to reach orbit?

Apr 4, 1:46 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

8789

OptionProbability

Eris (Gilmour Space)

None reach orbit by EOY 2035

Other

Kestrel V (ATSpace)

Aurora (Reaction Dynamics)

SL1 (HyImpulse)

54

28

6

5

4

4

Will there be a successful orbital rocket launch from UK soil this decade? (Eric Berger prediction)

Feb 13, 7:22 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

55.73%chance

14789

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1122

891

Will there be HD real images (e.g. telescope, probe) of the dwarf planet Eris by 2030?

Jan 9, 3:47 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

12.5%chance

18649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

886

Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?

Nov 2, 4:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.7%chance

14622

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1157

406

Will Erik Hoel create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 5:21 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

52.03%chance

18555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1159

782

Will a crossing of the Bab-el-Mandeb, between Yemen and Djibouti or Eritrea, have started construction by 2040?

Jul 4, 8:28 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

22.1%chance

15338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1079

956

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