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Prediction markets for Eritrea
OptionProbability
98
97
97
96
94
92
90
90
90
87
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85
83
80
80
80
80
79
78
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77
76
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71
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66
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60
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9
8
8
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5
5
4
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Which countries will legalize homosexual behavior by 2030( can Add countries)
OptionProbability
93
90
69
59
55
55
45
43
35
31
20
20
20
20
20
20
17
17
16
16
13
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
Which of the following parties will be in office on December 31, 2028?
OptionProbability
97
94
93
83
82
78
69
67
60
55
50
50
47
43
38
38
35
34
32
30
29
28
27
Which fully recognized United Nations member country will be the first one to stop existing?
OptionProbability
23
15
6
6
5
5
4
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
Who would win if Ethiopia went to war against Eritrea and its ally,The Tigray Defense Force (TDF) ?
OptionProbability
68
20
12
What will be the next capital city to be occupied by a foreign military?
OptionProbability
55
8
6
5
4
4
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will armed conflict break out between Ethiopia and Eritrea by December 31, 2026?
OptionVotes
213
47
Will the Eritrean government collapse before or within 5 years of Isaias Afwerki's death?
OptionVotes
1130
885
Will there be sustained armed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea by end of December 31, 2026?
OptionVotes
153
65
Will a crossing of the Bab-el-Mandeb, between Yemen and Djibouti or Eritrea, have started construction by 2040?
OptionVotes
1079
956
Scenario #2: Which of the countries will the Sudan's war spillover after Ethiopia in 2026?
OptionProbability
26
23
21
10
10
10
Which country will Sudan's conflict spillover in 2026? Scenario #1
OptionProbability
27
27
27
19