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Prediction markets for Essen

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:41 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31%chance

9431008

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1369

1063

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-3 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

13.3%chance

3813776

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1263

918

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?

Apr 14, 12:45 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

11.49%chance

286165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1245

940

Under which party will Eric Adams appear on the 2025 NYC mayoral election ballot?

Nov 12, 7:48 PMNov 5, 4:59 AM

81758

OptionProbability

Independent

Democrat

Republican

99

1

0

will this tweet hold up: I predict that chess will be essentially fully solved (like checkers) within 10 years.

May 13, 4:45 PMMay 14, 6:59 AM

10.75%chance

251444

OptionVotes

NO

YES

972

782

Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for the human brain before 2040?

Jul 3, 5:13 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

21%chance

231248

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

985

Benchmark Gap #2: Once we have an algorithm with human level sample efficiency for major RL benchmarks, how many years will it be before there is an algorithm with human level sample efficiency on essentially all AAA video game tasks?

Nov 9, 9:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

1.6%chance

7578

OptionProbability

YES

NO

924

375

Will the protein folding problem be essentially solved before 2040?

Mar 17, 1:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

68.73%chance

18421

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

942

Will OSHA still exist in essentially its current form at the end of 2025?

Feb 5, 1:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.93%chance

6125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

152

66

Will someone convince me of ANYTHING that contradicts my (essentially mainstream) knowledge of COVID before 2026?

Jan 1, 1:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

70.24%chance

598

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

66

This is banking in essence?

Aug 22, 2:35 AMAug 22, 8:59 PM

00

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