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Top stories

UK and NATO Allies Commit to 5% GDP Defence Spending by 2035; Starmer Targets 4.1% by 2027 Amid £30 Billion Gap; Carney Addresses Trump’s 35% Tariff Threat

UK and NATO Allies Commit to 5% GDP Defence Spending by 2035; Starmer Targets 4.1% by 2027 Amid £30 Billion Gap; Carney Addresses Trump’s 35% Tariff Threat

Authors

18

1 month ago

Prime Minister Carney Pledges Canada to Meet NATO Five Percent GDP Defence Target by 2035 Amid $92B Deficit and $147B Borrowing

Prime Minister Carney Pledges Canada to Meet NATO Five Percent GDP Defence Target by 2035 Amid $92B Deficit and $147B Borrowing

Authors

7

1 month ago

Prediction markets for Estonia

Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before 2030?

Feb 26, 7:09 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.1%chance

6015105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1417

906

Will Russia attack Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia) by 2030?

Jan 21, 1:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.3%chance

5810342

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

718

What is the next country to invoke NATO Article 4?

Nov 15, 8:52 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

211909

OptionProbability

Lithuania

Estonia

Poland

Turkiye

---no Article 4 before 2030---

Greece

Finland

Ukraine

Other

Latvia

Bulgaria

Czech Republic

Romania

Slovakia

United States of America

Sweden

United Kingdom

Norway

32

20

17

12

9

3

3

2

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Russian attacks or invades Estonia by mid 2026

Mar 1, 11:42 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

5.58%chance

121715

OptionVotes

YES

NO

623

114

Will a tunnel between Finland and Estonia have started construction by 2035?

Jul 5, 9:25 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

43.08%chance

341582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1302

662

Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2025?

May 5, 5:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.78%chance

201494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

743

13

Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2026?

May 5, 5:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.11%chance

171119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

558

18

Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2027?

May 5, 5:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.89%chance

131018

OptionVotes

YES

NO

441

23

Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before the end of 2028?

May 5, 5:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.99%chance

16700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

365

27

How many seats will be won by EKRE (Conservative People's Party of Estonia) in the next Estonian parliamentary election?

Mar 31, 9:11 AMMar 8, 11:59 PM

5100

OptionProbability

More than 15

More than 18

More than 21

More than 24

69

50

33

12

Will Taiwan open a Representative Office in Estonia by the end of 2025?

Nov 6, 8:50 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

30.77%chance

345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

75

33

Will a new Taiwanese Representative Office in Estonia use the word 'Taiwan' in the name?

Nov 6, 8:54 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

42.21%chance

233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

59

43

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