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Top stories

Koh-Lanta Veteran Gérard ‘Gégé’ Icardi Dies at 79

Koh-Lanta Veteran Gérard ‘Gégé’ Icardi Dies at 79

Authors

6

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Eure

How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe?

Jun 27, 4:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38121725

OptionProbability

increased sanitation / hygiene / clean air+water

all other cuases

vaccines and antibiotics

medical ex-vaccines/antibiotics

improved diet

reduced war / homicide / execution / child abandonment

27

22

21

19

18

15

Will Kesha represent the US at Eurovision 2026?

Aug 14, 6:11 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

3.43%chance

1947633

OptionVotes

YES

NO

53039

1885

Will the US participate in Eurovision 2026?

Aug 14, 6:09 AMJan 1, 12:59 AM

4.46%chance

2146895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

46270

2161

What will be the dominant unit of economic power used by humans in 2040?

Nov 4, 4:21 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

7139573

OptionProbability

US Dollar (USD)*

Chinese Renminbi (CNY)*

Euro (EUR)*

Bitcoin (BTC)*

Unit of Computation (FLOP/IOP, etc.)

Energy-based Unit (Joule/Wh, etc.)

Ethereum (ETH)*

Gold (Au)

Reputation-based Currency (e.g., Whuffie points)

Emission-Linked Financial Instrument (e.g., carbon coin)

Worldcoin (WLD)*

Paperclips

Utilitarian Value-based Currency (DALY, QALY, dead children, etc.)

TRUMP

Manifold Mana

57

32

24

8

8

8

7

6

6

6

5

4

4

4

2

Air Baltic defaults on 2024 14.5% EUR bond before August 14, 2029?

Apr 22, 8:31 PMAug 13, 11:59 PM

49%chance

123516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

980

Will a European country ban selling meat by 2100?

Aug 14, 11:40 AMAug 14, 10:59 PM

71.65%chance

613410

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1607

712

Will signs of past or present life be found on the Jovian moon Europa by 2050?

Oct 2, 6:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.36%chance

402335

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1129

556

What will be the world's RESERVE CURRENCY by 2035?

Jun 3, 3:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

422315

OptionProbability

US dollar

XAU - Gold

BTC - Bitcoin

CNY - Chinese Yuan

Euro

a new BRICS currency

EUR - European Union Euro

ETH - Ethereum

JPY - Japanese Yen

GBP - British Pound

USDC

Other

Bitcoin

USDT (Tether)

Dai

West African CFA franc

56

19

14

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

Will Sweden adopt the Euro before 2032?

Jul 7, 3:11 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.68%chance

151550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1901

526

Will there be a Wikipedia article about a "Euro-American split" by the end of 2028

Mar 6, 12:15 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40.31%chance

101108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3585

2721

Which of the following indexes and (crypto)currencies will grow more in 5 years from today?

May 16, 6:56 AMMay 16, 9:59 PM

15539

OptionProbability

S&P 500

NASDAQ Composite

BTC

Dow Jones Industrial Average

ETH

SOL

USD

EUR

JPY

32

22

20

11

8

4

1

1

1

Will USD decrease 10% by the end of 2025 relative to EUR?

Sep 7, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.75%chance

12463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

392

89

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