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Top stories

Ukraine Tests 3,000-Km ‘Flamingo’ Missile, Plans Production Surge

Ukraine Tests 3,000-Km ‘Flamingo’ Missile, Plans Production Surge

Authors

18

5 months ago

Russia's Ust-Luga Port to Operate at 350,000 Barrels Daily After Ukrainian Drone Attacks; Oil Redirected as Kremlin Continues Strikes

Russia's Ust-Luga Port to Operate at 350,000 Barrels Daily After Ukrainian Drone Attacks; Oil Redirected as Kremlin Continues Strikes

Authors

12

5 months ago

Prediction markets for European Russia

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?

Dec 14, 5:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.03%chance

518941

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1277

784

Will Ukraine cede land to russia?

Dec 19, 4:47 AMDec 31, 5:02 AM

42%chance

272674

OptionVotes

YES

NO

118

85

Was a western-aligned party (such as the US or Ukraine) responsible for the Nord Stream attack?

Oct 3, 9:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

94.66%chance

162343

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3146

739

How many G7 countries recognize Palestine by end of 2026?

Jul 29, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21970

OptionProbability

Above 0

Above 1

Above 4

Above 6

100

100

60

4

Will a European country will re-establish a monarchy in the 21st century?

May 4, 12:36 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

16.92%chance

15924

OptionVotes

NO

YES

996

931

Will russia attack and/or occupy european NATO area until EOY2029? And if so, where will that happen first?

May 23, 4:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8715

OptionProbability

Not on NATO area/Not at all

Estonia

Alaska

Other

Finland

Lithuania

Latvia

51

26

7

7

4

2

2

Will Vladimir Putin visit the Vatican City before 2027?

May 20, 3:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.78%chance

15684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

371

27

Will Europe fall before Bitcoin?

Dec 12, 7:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.2%chance

8669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

455

Which European country will be the next to lose territory?

Jan 18, 2:27 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18374

OptionProbability

Other

Russia

Moldova

Armenia

Denmark

Spain

United Kingdom

Albania

41

21

13

12

6

3

3

2

Will Russia join the European Union by 2050?

Jun 3, 6:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.51%chance

12226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1153

956

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

Which European countries will deploy naval vessels to the Pacific in 2026 and/or 2027?

Jan 13, 4:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2103

OptionProbability

Russia

UK

France

Germany

Netherlands

Italy

Spain

Denmark

Turkey

Portugal

Norway

Belgium

Greece

Poland

100

100

100

76

72

71

50

50

50

43

36

34

31

24

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