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Top stories

Ukraine Tests 3,000-Km ‘Flamingo’ Missile, Plans Production Surge

Ukraine Tests 3,000-Km ‘Flamingo’ Missile, Plans Production Surge

Authors

18

1 year ago

Russia's Ust-Luga Port to Operate at 350,000 Barrels Daily After Ukrainian Drone Attacks; Oil Redirected as Kremlin Continues Strikes

Russia's Ust-Luga Port to Operate at 350,000 Barrels Daily After Ukrainian Drone Attacks; Oil Redirected as Kremlin Continues Strikes

Authors

12

1 year ago

Prediction markets for European Russia

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?

Dec 14, 5:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.75%chance

8214012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2506

400

Which countries in Europe will switch to compulsory military service (2027)?

Apr 22, 3:02 AMJun 30, 1:59 PM

403020

OptionProbability

Croatia

Poland

Serbia

Germany

Hungary

Portugal

France

Czechia

Slovenia

UK

Spain

88

74

69

40

35

22

20

20

19

12

10

Was a western-aligned party (such as the US or Ukraine) responsible for the Nord Stream attack?

Oct 3, 9:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

94.66%chance

162343

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3146

739

Will a European country will re-establish a monarchy in the 21st century?

May 4, 12:36 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

18.74%chance

16944

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1016

838

Will russia attack and/or occupy european NATO area until EOY2029? And if so, where will that happen first?

May 23, 4:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12884

OptionProbability

Not on NATO area/Not at all

Estonia

Lithuania

Other

Latvia

Finland

Alaska

70

11

5

5

4

3

3

Ukraine joins EU before 2029?

Dec 23, 11:52 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

9.18%chance

14719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

314

32

Will Europe fall before Bitcoin?

Dec 12, 7:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.2%chance

8669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

455

Will Aughinish announce production curtailment or major layoffs by end-2026?

Aug 8, 1:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.38%chance

2351

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1351

740

Will there be an armed conflict between Russia and the European Economic Area before 1 January 2028?

Sep 14, 4:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.33%chance

6326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

89

Will Russia join the European Union by 2050?

Jun 3, 6:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.93%chance

13276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1203

948

Mearsheimer prediction: Will Russia attack European countries that are not Ukraine?

Jul 12, 5:43 PMJul 10, 10:59 PM

14%chance

11224

OptionVotes

YES

NO

248

40

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

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