Fars News

Will Manifold agree that Dwarkesh's upcoming guest is "by far [his] biggest yet"? (Resolves to poll)

Aug 22, 4:55 PMAug 20, 6:59 AM

26.13%chance

8412010

OptionVotes

YES

812

118

Impeach the Judge who blocked DOGE from accessing U.S. Treasury records? How far will this go?

Feb 9, 9:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

203245

OptionProbability

Initiation and Investigation: A member or committee of the House of Representatives begins impeachment proceedings. The House Judiciary Committee investigates the allegations of misconduct

Charges: If the committee finds sufficient evidence, it acts as a prosecutor and brings charges against the judge.

The U.S. Court of Appeals or the Supreme Court overturns Judge Engelmayer's ruling to block Executive cabinet and staffers from accessing U.S. Treasury records, and no impeachment proceedings are initiated by May 9, 2025.

House Votes YES to Impeach: The entire House of Representatives votes on the impeachment. A simple majority is required to impeach the judge.

Senate Trial and Removal: If impeached, the case is referred to the Senate for a trial. A two-thirds majority vote in the Senate is required to convict and remove the judge from office.

100

If a Macron-backed candidate fails to be elected president in 2027, will a far-right candidate win?

Mar 27, 1:43 PMJul 1, 2:59 AM

66.11%chance

252643

OptionVotes

YES

978

974

Will German far-right party AfD be banned by the German government?

Sep 3, 8:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

15%chance

242275

OptionVotes

YES

1020

459

Will far-UVC or a successor technology be ubiquitous by 2033?

Sep 29, 1:23 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

20.45%chance

422271

OptionVotes

YES

1191

922

Will Far-UVC Become a Partisan Issue in the US by 2027?

Mar 14, 9:24 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

14.66%chance

91692

OptionVotes

YES

2412

415

Will a precolonial city be found in the Amazon rainforest that is larger than any city found there thus far?

Sep 15, 7:14 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

31.97%chance

201084

OptionVotes

YES

1459

686

Will the CDU in eastern german states try to form a government with the far-right AfD after the next election?

Jan 18, 11:03 AMDec 31, 7:25 AM

9.23%chance

7529

OptionVotes

YES

381

Will any government in the US/EU/UK/Canada/Australia mandate installing far-UVC lamps in any public space before 2030?

Mar 6, 3:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

70.34%chance

15405

OptionVotes

YES

1105

942

Will Proud Boys, Three Percenters, or members of similar far-right groups kill at least 10 people in the US in 2025?

Nov 7, 9:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.68%chance

9325

OptionVotes

YES

1286

778

Assuming the series makes it far enough, will the One Piece live action cast Vin Diesel as Edward "Whitebeard" Newgate?

Sep 12, 4:20 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

7.19%chance

5190

OptionVotes

YES

282

Will ACGIH raise the threshold limit values of the far-UVC (200-230 nm) range again before 2026?

Feb 24, 9:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.02%chance

3146

OptionVotes

YES

165

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Will Manifold agree that Dwarkesh's upcoming guest is "by far [his] biggest yet"? (Resolves to poll)

Impeach the Judge who blocked DOGE from accessing U.S. Treasury records? How far will this go?

If a Macron-backed candidate fails to be elected president in 2027, will a far-right candidate win?

Will German far-right party AfD be banned by the German government?

Will far-UVC or a successor technology be ubiquitous by 2033?

Will Far-UVC Become a Partisan Issue in the US by 2027?

Will a precolonial city be found in the Amazon rainforest that is larger than any city found there thus far?

Will the CDU in eastern german states try to form a government with the far-right AfD after the next election?

Will any government in the US/EU/UK/Canada/Australia mandate installing far-UVC lamps in any public space before 2030?

Will Proud Boys, Three Percenters, or members of similar far-right groups kill at least 10 people in the US in 2025?

Assuming the series makes it far enough, will the One Piece live action cast Vin Diesel as Edward "Whitebeard" Newgate?

Will ACGIH raise the threshold limit values of the far-UVC (200-230 nm) range again before 2026?

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