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Top stories

Regional Fed Gauges Signal July Manufacturing Rebound

Regional Fed Gauges Signal July Manufacturing Rebound

Authors

11

6 days ago

Prediction markets for Federal Reserve

Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?

Jan 22, 11:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13%chance

270530822

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23353

6200

How many net rate cuts will the Fed (Federal Reserve) do in 2025?

Jan 6, 6:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4318778

OptionProbability

2 cuts (Target 3.75-4.00)

1 cuts (Target 4.00-4.25)

3 cuts (Target 3.50-3.75)

0 cuts (Target 4.25-4.50 or higher)

4 cuts or more (Target 3.25-3.50 or lower)

45

32

16

5

1

Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September 2025?

Jul 15, 7:53 PMSep 15, 11:59 PM

75.56%chance

326147

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1758

569

Federal Reserve upper bound at least 5.00% on December 31?

Apr 23, 2:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.02%chance

93738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4349

230

Who will be the next Chair of the Federal Reserve?

Feb 2, 3:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

121363

OptionProbability

Chris Waller

Other

Kevin Warsh

Judy Shelton

Scott Bessent

Kevin Hassett

Stephen Miran

Larry Kudlow

Arthur Laffer

Mary Daly

Austan Goolsbee

Susan Collins

Lisa Cook

Jim Cramer

Andrew Hussie

22

14

11

11

11

8

7

6

3

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will Jerome Powell be appointed to a third term as Chair of the Federal Reserve?

Aug 19, 10:00 PMJun 1, 3:59 AM

2.15%chance

18914

OptionVotes

YES

NO

675

15

Will Jerome Powell get a third consecutive term as chair of the Federal Reserve?

Apr 10, 3:10 PMApr 1, 2:59 AM

3.67%chance

16841

OptionVotes

YES

NO

695

31

Will the Federal Reserve exist and retain it's current level of independence by the end of Trump's term.

Nov 11, 3:49 PMFeb 19, 6:59 AM

47.28%chance

18728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

95

Will Jay Powell still be chair of the Federal Reserve on January 20th, 2026?

Apr 23, 5:49 AMJan 21, 11:59 PM

84.07%chance

12561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

230

44

Will the Federal Reserve announce an increase in interest rates at any point in 2025?

Jul 25, 10:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.32%chance

8461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

356

28

Will the Federal Reserve end quantitative tightening in 2025?

May 22, 4:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.61%chance

5415

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1384

727

Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates before 2028?

Jun 26, 5:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

85.96%chance

7200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

247

40

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