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Prediction markets for Ferma

Could Fermat have had a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem?

Jun 21, 5:36 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM

4.92%chance

3110485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3583

686

Will we have a formalized proof of Fermat's last theorem by 2029-05-01?

May 2, 1:38 AMMay 2, 4:59 AM

71.5%chance

445719

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1354

788

Will a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem simple enough for Fermat to have possessed be found by 2027?

Aug 12, 5:27 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

2.45%chance

465096

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3123

877

Are there infinitely many composite Fermat numbers?

Oct 28, 3:16 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

98.43%chance

31218

OptionVotes

NO

YES

510

24

Will we have a formalized proof of Fermat's last theorem by 2049-05-01?

Nov 26, 10:24 PMMay 2, 4:59 AM

91.14%chance

19813

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1298

944

Is 65537 the largest Fermat prime?

Oct 28, 3:13 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

93.26%chance

9758

OptionVotes

NO

YES

445

110

Will fermats last theorem be formalized in lean down to the axiom in 5 years.

Feb 14, 6:58 PMFeb 22, 6:29 PM

48.71%chance

17579

OptionVotes

YES

NO

211

204

Are there infinitely many Fermat primes?

Oct 28, 3:14 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4.11%chance

4205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

295

50

When will we have a fully formalized proof of Fermat's Last Theorem?

Dec 16, 3:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8179

OptionProbability

2029 to the end of 2033

before the end of 2028

2034 to the end of 2038

2039 to the end of 2043

not by the end of 2043

37

35

11

11

6

Will Kevin Buzzard successfully fulfill his grant specs of formalizing Fermat's Last Theorem in Lean within 5 years?

Nov 2, 12:01 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

55.86%chance

5135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1125

889

Are all Fermat numbers squarefree?

Oct 28, 3:19 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

91.1%chance

2110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

180

36

Looking to better understand the proof of Fermat's Last Theorem by Andrew Wiles. Recommend me a good resource

Apr 3, 12:58 AM

00

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