Flip Out News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

New James Bond actor is presented

"The New Norm" ends

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

trump gets hospitalized

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

Fair elections in 2028

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

The US leaves the World Health Organization

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Approval < 35%

A new supreme court justice appointed

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Vances have another kid

USA experiences a recession.

US Invasion of any North/South American country

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

New

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Dow rises above 65,000

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

Joe Biden dies

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

US national bitcoin reserve created

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

A major war in Asia occurs

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

New national park created

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Trump gets covid (again)

Trump says a racial slur

Trump visits Africa

Tesla

Trump announces he is tired of winning

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

The department of education gets desolved

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

Trump and Obama shake hands

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

Constitutional Amendment

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

Record level unemployment

Repeal obamacare

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

JD Vance elected President

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

10% fewer government agencies

Another pandemic

55 or more Republican senate seats

54 or more Republican senate seats

American Manned Lunar Landing

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

Starship lands on Mars

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Trump dies

Approval < 25%

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Laura Loomer gets any government role

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

Trump runs for a third term

Trump is seen shirtless

south park is canceled/discontinued

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Trump gets shot

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Cannabis is federally legalized

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

BTC falls below $38,000

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Trump extends his term past 4 years

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

A national ban on gender-affirming care

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Constitutional Amendment

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Trump bans abortion nationwide

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

"covfefe" posted again

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump is assassinated

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

New US national anthem

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Trump loses the fake tan

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump and Melania divorce

SpaceX is nationalized

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

A hurricane will be nuked

Jimmy Carter dies

Richard Hanania

Sam Altman

Growing Daniel

Robin Hanson

Elon Musk

Dave Chapelle

Cersei Lannister (from Game of Thrones)

Lelouch Lamperouge (from Code Geass)

Light Yagami (from Death Note)

Polymarket

Evil

Donald Trump

Men

Polygamous Mormons

Thanos

United States of America

UK

Diogenes

Monday

Engineering

Donald Trump (2004)

The Pivot

Scientology

Sauron

Hitler

Techno-solutionism

Bryan Caplan

Facebook

Twitter

Israel

Putin

Iran

Russia

SCOTUS

Aragorn

Queen Elizabeth II

Willingness to start Nuclear War

Japan

South Korea

Christianity

Islam

Zionism

God

Roman Empire

Voldemort

Libertarianism

Burning books

Censorship

Mercantilism

Windows

iOS

Effective Accelerationism

Emmanuel Macron

The Stock Market

Tax Fraud

Slytherin

Gryffindor

Nuclear Power

Gender-Critical Feminists

The Azov Brigade

The Butlerian Jihad

The Torment Nexus

The Second Amendment to the Constitution of the United States of America

John "Johnny Rotten" Lydon

𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘳𝘴𝘩𝘪𝘱 𝘛𝘳𝘰𝘰𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴 by Robert A. Heinlein

The Rule of Law

Nick Land

Conspiracy Theory

Dolores Umbridge

Pickup Artistry

Racism

Sexism

Deontological Ethics

Virtue Ethics

The Roman Empire

The Roman Republic

Meritocracy

Racial Colorblindness

Idiocracy (2006)

Dementors (in Harry Potter)

Karl Lagerfeld

Francisco Franco

Victual Brothers

Project MKUltra

Hearts of Iron IV

Warhammer 40K

Having an Anime Avatar on Twitter/X

4chan

Eternal Love

Cryptocurrencies

Theocracy

Pronatalism

Havelock Vetinari

Philosemitism

Friedrich Nietzsche

Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel

Carl Jung

Neo-Luddism

Antisemitism

Europa Universalis IV

House Harkonnen

House Atreides

House Corrino

Immanuel Kant

Frequentism

Elsevier

Ingsoc (1984)

Aviation

O'Brien from 1984

Michael Scott (from The Office)

Catholicism

The Kelly Criterion

The U.S. Founding Fathers

Julius Caesar

Napoleon Bonaparte

The average between Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Elon Musk in 2019

The most right-wing effective altruist you (the trader) personally know

having more than three children

private members clubs

Eagle

APAs (beer)

Minions

Travis Kelce

NIMBYism

RFK Jr.

Watching sports

Gambling on Sports

fast food

franchising

Dogs

The Senate Filibuster

strength training

The Twenty-Fifth Amendment to the US Constitution

Mosquitoes

Bears 🐻

The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact (the alliance between the USSR and Nazi Germany)

Defense

NATO

The Meiji Restoration

Fortnite

David Fincher

Purple

Rammstein (the band)

Grass

Marvin the Martian

US politics

Microsoft

The police (the actual police, not the band)

not putting the toilet seat down after peeing

Great Britain

The British Empire

The Great Basil Empire

the Steam Engine

dogecoin

Chesterton's Fence

Neoliberalism

Extraversion

Antidisestablishmentarianism

Recommending state sponsored euthanasia to people because they're poor

Ordo Templi Orientis

One-party system

Working

Religion

Casinos

Mr. House (Fallout New Vegas)

Dr. House

Antisemitism in 2024

Logging

Queens (the sovereigns)

House M.D.

Protoss (star craft universe)

labeling everything into right-wing and left-wing

"Conspicuous consumption"

Flipping a coin

To kill (your own) dog. [IMPORTANT, PLEASE NOTE: Dog, not puppy.]

Queens (the chess pieces)

Being off the grid

Libria (from Equilibrium, the movie 2002)

Darwin Awards

Oscar Mayer Wienermobile

Using sweepstakes rules as an end-run around gambling regulation

Doomsday prepping

Predatory animals

Eating meat

Aggression

Hunting

The majority of people in the world

Economics

Victimizing others for political power

The wing that has caused the most deaths, *net of any lives it might have saved*

Saying "y'all"

Paganism, like in the Roman Empire

Paganism, like executing Socrates

Standardized academic testing

Homeschooling

The Mafia

Private charity

Diabetes

Motorcycle (instead of a car)

Magic: the Gathering (Azorious)

Magic: the Gathering (Grixis)

Magic: the Gathering (Orzohv)

Magic: the Gathering (Spike)

Political Centerists

Mustache (only, as opposed to bearded or clean shaven)

Clean shaven face

Cocaine and Hookers (as a single concurrent activity, as opposed to serverally or individually)

Nature, as opposed to Nurture

corruption

nepotism

The classification of objects

The average person

The average American

Patents

Embryo selection for IQ

Authority

Debt-trap diplomacy

Kiki

Polygenic Embryo Selection for Intelligence/IQ/g

Polygenic Embryo Selection for Height

Polygenic Embryo Selection for Attractiveness

Polygenic Embryo Selection against Autism

Creating options on this martet that are lowkey the same thing as an already existing option

Hereditary rule

Wealth inheritance

Gold

Eugenics

Progress studies

Everything is communism

monarchism

Good faith voting that prioritizes capitalist over populist interpretation of the market

Bodybuilding

The secret group behind everything

Tall

Wide

Choosing the man over the bear

Looking for a man in finance, trust fund, 6’5, blue eyes

a man in finance, trust fund, 6'5, blue eyes

Finance

thinking 4 is a smaller number than -10

Hunks

Bears

J.R.R. Tolkien

Hobbits

Corpulence

Twunks

Uppers

Downers

Ice Hockey

Believing people on the right are fundamentally good.

The Austrian School

Believing people are fundamentally bad.

Believing that the world is an evil illusion which our greatest hope is to escape from.

Believing that everything happens for a reason.

Believing that ending sentences with prepositions is something up with which we should not put.

The honorific "Mrs."

Ineffective charities

Saying « I’m not racist, but… »

Karens

Net-negative counterfactual impact charities

Saying « I’m not gay, but… » while actually being gay

Believing that guns are fundamentally good.

Believing that knives are fundamentally good.

Believing that contraceptives are fundamentally bad.

Appeasing Russia

Magpies

Corsets

Walternate (character from Fringe, alternate timeline version of Walter Bishop)

American tourists

Preference for Dinousars looking scaly, as opposed to feathery

Eating

Drinking

Capitalism

Mercantilism

Anarcho-capitalism

Moneylending

« Your mom » jokes

« Ur gay » jokes

« If…, then you’re gay » jokes

Fundamental (or absolute) morality

thinking that the Eastern Bloc countries (until 1990) were indeed left wing

watching national competitions (world cups etc) instead of professiona club competitions/individual competitions (for instance, UEFA Eurocup (national representations) in football instead of UEFA Champions league (professional sport teams))

Authoritarianism

Game shows

Talk shows

Reality shows

9/11 Conspiracy Theories

Effective political campaigning and coalition building

Independent Voters

The Supreme Court of the United States of America

Ronald Reagan

αρετη

θυμός

στοργή

Becoming a lord with the lord title company thingy

Believing humans have heritable physical traits

Believing humans have heritable cognitive traits

The person who shot at Trump

Believing that you need to believe things that aren't true in order to be a good person

Believing that you should have a good life if and only if you're a good person

Voting for the winner of every US presidential election since 2000

E/Acc

Use of stone tools

Farming

Domestication of animals

Backyard chickens

Sailing

The right of gay men to protect their marijuana farm with guns.

Believing illegal immigrants have heritable cognitive traits

Libtard

Generalist

The cool kids

Gamers

Joe Manchin

Straight non-white Latino women aged 18-24 from a suburb in Texas who are Catholic or Orthodox and took some college classes

Straight white men aged 55-64 from rural Florida who are atheist and who were educated toward high school

Lesbian white women aged 18-24 from rural Alaska who are Evangelical and who were educated to high school

JD Vance

doping for body performance

the "culture war"

The decisions corporate executives/ upper management make at work

How corporate executives/ upper management vote personally

Transmedicalism

People in 2024 who enjoy the film White Chicks

The YouTube political content creators that get more views.

New money

Bashar al-Assad

Hamas

Homeowner in the hood (D+80, minority-majority precinct) owns two pickup trucks parked on the driveway and has an American flag hanging off the porch. No other banners/ signs.

The belief that a largely unmoderated social media platform should not face boycotts or government censorship

Lex Fridman

"Yes"

Looking for a good deal

"Your right to free speech ends just where my ears begin"

Elites

Nobles

Small business

Heroes

"Sex work is bad because it's sex"

"Sex work is good because it's how I get sex"

long live the queen

Youtube recommendation algorithm

Hard-working, devout Catholic, traditional-value-minded, entrepreneurial undocumented immigrants

Gay Mormon tax

Bearish Bulls

The original Constitution of the United States, without any amendments

The Constitution of the United States, with the first 10 amendments (Bill of Rights)

The current Constitution of the United States, with its 27 amendments

English Americans

Saddam Hussein

Anarcho-Egoism

Eco-Fascism

Fourth political theory

People in 42024 BCE who enjoyed Grugh the Caveman's painting, "Grugh kill bison with spear, Fronk weak caveman no help"

Legalizing gambling on politics

Futarchy

The works of Christopher Nolan

X should be legal because freedom is more important than Y consequence.

Beating your kids

Requiring your kids to accept hugs/kisses from relatives when they don't want to

Legacy admissions - getting into a university because your parents are alumni

Economic literacy

Killing your neighbor's pet and eating it

Killing your neighbor's pet but not eating it

The madonna/whore complex

Feeling threatened by too much power being put into Representatives of The People

Alcohol prohibitionism

Subsidiarity

Anarcho-cannibalism

Attacking Karl Popper with a fireplace poker

Thomas Jefferson's relationship with Sally Hemings

Living in a town where everyone votes for the same political party

Living in a town where everyone goes to the same church

Living in a town where everyone works for the same employer

Living in a town where everyone's kids go to the same school

Homeschooled kids, like Rebecca Black ("Friday" singer) or Cady, the main character from Mean Girls

“The national debt is now $xx trillion, we need to stop borrowing against our grandchildren”

Borrowing against our grandchildren, thereby ruining the economy for them

Thinking you or other people speak without an accent, as if that is even possible lol

speaking with the same accent as the median TV presenter

Overpollution and burning fossil fuels, thereby ruining the environment for our grandchildren

Not charging emitters for the social cost of carbon, causing overpollution and fossil fuel use

Having an independent central bank

Trying to take an average over a space that has no well defined average

Political violence

Disliking the American Constitution because it’s a product of the Enlightenment

the madhi coming to the world this century

Having no central bank.

WVO Quine

Phosphorus

Allowing actors to profit from the positive externalities they create

Free banking

Having a currency board

Floating exchange rates

Enclosure of the commons

Inventing insulting nicknames for your political opponents (e.g. "Sleepy Joe")

Turning the names of politicians you oppose into rude words (e.g. "santorum")

"Parental Advisory: Explicit Lyrics" warning labels.

Changing the name of a food on your menu to make it more American/patriotic (e.g. "freedom fries")

Changing the name of a drug that you sell to make it more American/patriotic (e.g. "freedom kush", "red white and blue tar heroin")

The Hidden-Variable Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics

The "All About the Math, No Interpretation" of Quantum Mechanics

Concorde

Using LLMs for linguistic analysis in court cases

Using category theory to analyze the Christian Doctrine of the Trinity

Bias

Substack

Being undecided in the 2024 election

“The west is the best” (said in 2016)

“The west is the best” (said today)

Committing a financial crime

sugar

Being neither left wing nor right wing

Hating the West Wing (in 2002)

Hating the West Wing (today)

Shit talking on internet communities, then pretending they didn't

Adultery

Nude Africa

Liking Harry Potter in 2021

The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) striking at this point of the presidential race

Saying “Persia” instead of “Iran”

Plastic surgery

@SteveSokolowski

Thinking the one person we select as President is more important than the 1,000s of government positions they will appoint new members to after they are elected.

Voting in line with Blackrock, Raytheon, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Pfizer, Moderna and the rest of the corporate industrial complex.

Believes corporate personhood is the largest issue in this election.

Gender-confirming conspicuous consumption

Gender-confirming consumption

Vice signaling: performatively doing something "bad" to show defiance of someone you disapprove of

Sydney Sweeney's boobs

Watches over $500

Think tanks

Coming from wealth

Black ethnonationalism

White ethnonationalism

Jewish Ethnonationalism

Arab ethnonationalism

Christian nationalism

Being pro-choice for race-selective abortions

Running ads on an alt-right website because the ads are cheap and then going "oops" when your audience becomes notably less tolerant of others

Political rallies

Embracing tradition for utilitarian reasons

The Uyghur genocide

Honor killings

Political extremism

Opposing xenogenders

Believing all spirits not in ingroup are demons

Believing you cannot be “plural” without having a dissociative disorder

Copyright law

Compulsory heterosexuality

Virginity == purity

Hormone-activated pheramone perfume

Kegel exercises

Missionary sex with lights off

Thinking "righty tighty, lefty loosey" is about politics

Eating chicken without seasoning

jk Rowling

white freezies

Boiling chicken

Frying chicken

Grilling chicken

Roasting chicken

The average first-wave feminist by today’s standards

Portuguese retirees

Bimetallism

British politics

first past the post voting

Party Switchers (new ideology relative to old)

The belief that vaccines cause autism

Gollum

Smeagol

Boromir

Blohm & Voss P 194

Disliking Trump but not thinking he is a fascist

Calling China “West Taiwan”

Not using tone tags

Not using trigger warnings

Being a virgin

making a big thing out of being a virgin

The concept of virginity

Thinking "AI art" is art

Block Plurality (“plurality-at-large”) Voting

The One Ring

The Philippines

Tariffs

Free trade

The fortnight before the US election

Lisa Murkowski

Spending the night before the election in a US fort

Dubai

Election fraud

Voter fraud

Worrying about voter fraud

Worrying about election fraud

Airstrikes in Beirut

Calling Mongolia "North Taiwan"

Pennsylvania

Calling Japan "Northeast Taiwan"

Calling Kazakhstan "West West Taiwan"

Balloon animals

Breeding cats

CrossFit

Ross Perot

Malty beer

Watery beer

Sparta

Beef jerky

Water polo

Spray tans

Vriska Serket

The winner of the 2024 United States presidential election

Skipping leg day

Garbage

Christmas

Batman/Bruce Wayne

Statues

Statutes

Pink capitalism

Der Ring des Nibelungen in 2024

National bolshevism aka nazbol

Killing Harambe The Gorilla

Gorilla Grodd

Poll Denialism

Killing countless animals in the process of factory farming

The year 1984

George Orwell shooting that elephant in Burma

Trans-Exclusionary Radical Feminism

Supporting Genghis Khan in the US today

mars

the sun

going to space

Accelerationist My Little Pony fanfic communities

Elvis

fillers (cosmetic)

Orcs

Dwarves

AI (not al)

Baby

Hillbilly Capitalism

Genocide

Opposing Al (not ai)

Manhattan-like Project for AGI

Opposable thumbs

Humans

Girls in white dresses with blue satin sashes

Doorbells and sleigh bells and schnitzel with noodles

Cream-colored ponies and crisp apple strudels

Brown paper packages tied up with strings

Bright copper kettles and warm woolen mittens

The Inca civilisation

Liechtenstein

Reducing the deficit

people who call themselves "classical liberals"

people who actually fit the definition of a classical liberal

Tulsi Gabbard (in 2020)

Treating "the definition" of a word as if it was anything other than how people actually use it

Treating "the grammar" of a language as if it was anything other than how people actually use it

The future of the US Democratic Party, relative to its current position

The future of the US Republican Party, relative to its current position

National Treasure

Survivor (the reality show)

Thanksgiving

Feminazism i.e. violent mass enslavement and genocidal extermination of men

Populism

Centrism

Andrew Jackson

Being apolitical

Microstates

non-geographic nations

Writing in Hailey Welch for president

Unintentionally spoiling your ballot

Ea-nāṣir

Seventh Day Adventists

Criticizing anything left-wing

Italy

Tucking in your shirt

Hats (male)

Hats (female)

Shoes with laces

Eggman's announcement https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9XyEosgoGgg

Adaptive fitness

Making the world worse to maximize applicability of your adaptive fitness

Being a stupid human

Syria's Sednaya Prison, "Assad's human slaughterhouse"

Protectionism

The average American ten years ago, compared to the average American today

Plato

Aristotle

Toonocalypse

Federalist Party

The San Francisco Freedom Club

People who don’t vote

Gambling

Lucio Russo

Back to office policies

Sam's Club

George Washington

Taking 'Roko's Basilisk' Seriously

Mohammed

Strasserism

This market continuously closing and reopening

Buying a Tesla

John Adams

The unbearable slowness of being

Reality itself

Thomas Jefferson

Siding with India in the India-Pakistan conflicts of 2025

Playing tennis

Anime

Working for the FBI

Working for the CIA

Duke Nukem (Character)

Proud Boys

Letting a cat outside

Scambaiting

The Iranian regime's use of rape, torture, sexual assault to suppress women's protests in 2022-23

War

Consequences despite integrity

Lying to conform to the group

Falun Gong

Hitman: World of Assassination (2021)

Baroque Architecture

Political purges (targeted, systematic removal of opponents)

Druze people

Bedouin people

drone shows

fireworks

Wild-caught salmon

Wild-caught bacon

Wild-caught diseases

Having other countries and/or people pay for your security

Lard

Medical-bill bankruptcy

Sam Dalrymple

Crude oil

Game shows with no monetary prize

Rape

Murder

Holodomor denial (by the Russian government)

Gaza genocide denial

Patriotism

Getting someone fired because they said something inappropiate (outside of work hours / work duties)

fire

Antarctic cruises

High heels

Micronations

Pardoning convicted narcoterrorists

Antipathy towards white women

Times New Roman font

JFK Jr. (edit: meant RFK Jr.)

macOS

Bro try herhood

International Intrigue - Your cheeky guide to a complicated world. Get the 5-minute newsletter designed by former diplomats at https://www.internationalintrigue.io

Having a pet cow

Biltong

Michigan

Taking sides in a conflict between two deeply right wing countries

FreeBSD

NetBSD

OpenBSD

Ilya Prigogine

Alois Mundo

ChatGPT

Scott Alexander

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Gordon Ramsay

Destiny

Noah Smith

Matt Yglesias

Severus Snape (from Harry Potter)

Walter White (from Breaking Bad)

Harry-James-Potter-Evans-Verres (from HPMOR)

Dobby (from Harry Potter)

@Bayesian

Manifold Markets

Kalshi

Good

Steven Pinker

Sam Harris

Einstein

Jreg (Satirical anti-centrist)

Artificial Intelligence

This market

Richard Dawkins

Women

Sisyphus

Elon Musk in 2014

Mao

Stalin

Friday

Humor

Gandalf

Participating in this market

The Ivy League

Reddit

Xi Jinping

China

Software Engineering

North Korea

Europe

Atheism

Buddhism

Judaism

Effective Altruism

Metaculus

Books

Linux

Android

Skibidi toilet

Rationalussy

Satan

Pastafarianism

Taxes

Sam Bankman-Fried

Magnus Carlsen

Hufflepuff

Ravenclaw

Chess.com

Lichess

AGI

Albus Dumbledore

Minerva McGonagall

Hermione Granger

Taylor Swift

Sirius Black

Harry Potter (as a character)

Ron Weasley

Luna Lovegood

Trotskyists

Gay White Cis Men

Solarpunk

The Buddhadharma

Freedom of Speech

𝘚𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘳 𝘪𝘯 𝘢 𝘚𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦 𝘓𝘢𝘯𝘥 by Robert A. Heinlein

Nick Bostrom

Class-First Socialist Analysis

Wikipedia

Solar power

Wind power

Geothermal power

Hydropower

SpaceX

Tesla

The Rawlsian Veil of Ignorance

Consequentialist Ethics

You, The Trader On This Market

The Future

Surprise

Zootopia (2016)

MrBeast

Patroni (in Harry Potter, plural form of Patronus)

Keep the Aspidistra Flying

hermit crabs

The Baltic Way

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Minecraft

Project Blue Book

Roblox

Lawlessness

Drugs

International

The First Amendment to the Constitution of the United States of America

Antinatalism

Geoengineering

Youtube

The Nineteenth Amendment to the Constitution of the United States of America

Bayesian Reasoning

Sci-Hub

Bernard Marx (from Brave New World)

Karl Marx

Guy Montag (from Fahrenheit 451)

Coolfold self-immolation

Robin Hood

Pope Francis

Transaction fees [shares*prob*(1 - prob)*0.07]

Manifold poker nights

The concept of the left-right political spectrum

The Artemis program

Jesus

Squidward

Ozempic

Georgism

The most left-wing effective accelerationist you (the trader) personally know

Ghosting

Traffic lights

The colour red

Soccer

The Marx Brothers

All votes in this market are equal regardless of mana (left), but the creator is making a big profit (right)

Parrots

Chupacabra

academia

YIMBYism

A healthy diet

Cats

cardio

Proportional representation

Ants 🐜

The United Nations

GMOs

Squirrels 🐿️

organic food

Renaming something to avoid bad PR

The protestors at Tiananmen Square

Curiosity

The Allies in World War 2

The Entente in World War 1

Disease

Video Games

Québec Separatism

Nanotechnology

Speedrunning

Boobs

Unity

Scott Pilgrim

TV shows

Cable TV

Greek Letters

Amnesia

Dyson Spheres

Time travel

Ordinary Least Squares Regression

Borgs (Star Trek )

The Police (the band, not the actual police)

The People's Front of Judea

Taylor Swift

Selena Gomez

Justin Bieber

Kurt Cobain

Rafael Nadal

Roger Federer

Soup

Having sex in the fields to make the crops grow

Liberalism

mind control

Changing your mind

Spelling mistakes

Memes

The minimum wage in Nordic countries

The level of wealth inequality in Sweden

Ernst Thälmann

Lactation cookies

The Warsaw pact

Resisting the ayatollahs' regime, like Saddam did in the 80s

Kibbutzim

Golden rice (vitamin A enriched to prevent blindness in the Third World)

Open borders, a Koch brothers proposal

The internet

protesting

Instagram

Politics (in general)

Making sure you understand options before voting for them

Tiktok

Dungeons and Dragons

Sex work to pay your own way through medical school

Needing a license to cut hair

Having the proper amount of esteem for Jews - not too much, not too little

White-collar jobs

Anarchism

The Bronx

People holding elected office

Queens (the borough)

Chess

Queens (the men who dress as women)

Opposing Zionism, like Saddam always did

Resisting the imperialistic American invasion of Iraq, like Saddam did

Rejecting the absolute monarchy of Kuwait, like Saddam did in 1990

still greeting people with fist bump (despite COVID is in the past)

no gluten diet (in people without gluten related intolerance or disease) as a hobby

The Khmer Rouge

Two-state solution

Jonathan Swift

Holodomor

Asking ‘Would You Rather?’

Prey animals

Pro Immortalism

Vegetarianism

Veganism

Passivity

Exploiting the victim stance for political power

Gemini star sign

Believing your views are evidence-based even as you label an entire domain of human knowledge as the opposing wing

Paganism

Mistakes

the Judean People's Front

Autodidacticism

Phonics

Catdog (portmanteau referring to a cat and a dog joined at the waist facing away from each other, each with their own two front paws for a total of four legs)

Believing that the world would end during our lifetime

Magic: the Gathering (in person, paper magic)

Magic: the Gathering Arena (Hearthstone client imitation)

Magic: the Gathering Online (before pretty pretty Arena, there was MTGO)

Magic: the Gathering (Timmy)

Magic: the Gathering (Johnny)

Magic: the Gathering (Vorthos)

Tax exemptions for non-profit status

501(c)(3) entities (the most common 501 tax exempt entity by tax identification)

Coffee

Beards (facial hair, excluding mustache only, as opposed to clean shaven face)

NPR (National Public Radio)

AP (Associated Press)

Benjamin Franklin (the historical figure, not the various currency)

Aptitude for Mathematics in general

Aptitude for Science in general

Aptitude in S.T.E.M. in general

Aptitude for History in general

Aptitude for Political Science in general

Aptitude for Entertainment in general

Aptitude "in Bed" in general

Aptitude for Languages in general

Aptitude for Writing in general

Nurture, as opposed to Nature

Ineptitude, in general

Trust

Double standards

Privacy

Honesty

The truth

Hope

Big Government

Obamacare

Sheeple

The greater good

The ideal person

The ideal American

Equal opportunity for all

Equal opportunity for all, but more equal for some

Bouba

The bettors on this market

Dying with dignity

Abortion of Down's Syndrome Fetuses

Abortion

IVF

Polygenic Embryo Selection

Monogenetic Embryo Selection in IVF

Pineapple on pizza

Overdosing on drugs

Polygenic Embryo Selection for Educational Attainment

Polygenic Embryo Selection for general health

Polygenic Embryo Selection against cancer risk

Creating passive-agressive options on this market

Voting on options for this market based on whether you like them instead of what side of the political spectrum they actually fit on

Human Cloning

Cloning John von Neumann

Voluntary Eugenics

Manifest (the event hosted by Manifold)

Everything is fascism

republicanism (opposition to monarchy, support of self-governance)

Twinks

Camille Paglia

Coziness

Slenderness

Field Hockey

Air Hockey

Believing people are fundamentally good.

Believing that responsible stewardship of animals, plants, and natural resources is a fundamental duty of humankind.

Pope Francis' encyclical letter Laudato si'

Virtue signaling

Saying « I’m not a rationalist, but… »

Saying « I’m not gay, but… »

Saying « I’m not gay, but… » while actually not being gay

Believing that guns are fundamentally bad.

Believing that knives are fundamentally bad.

Believing that contraceptives are fundamentally good.

Believing that contraceptives are fundamentally good.

thinking 0+4i is a smaller number than -10

modified newtonian dynamics

Walter Bishop (character from Fringe, main timeline version)

Olivia Dunham (character from Fringe, main timeline version)

Bolivia/Fauxlivia (character from Fringe, alternate timeline version of Olivia Dunham)

Peter Bishop (character from Fringe)

Mother's Day

Queerbaiting

Dermatillomania

Femboys

Sour patch kids

Being attracted to overweight men

Being attracted to overweight women

Believing that AI should be regulated

Anarchism

Making things worse in order to hasten the arrival of the necessary conditions for socialist revolution (socialist accelerationism)

Furthering the goals of the right wing in order to hasten the arrival of the necessary conditions for socialist revolution (socialist accelerationism)

Touching grass

Relative morality

Invention of television.

Invention of the phone.

Invention of the wheel.

Emergence of social media in the internet/information age.

Big data

thinking that the Eastern Bloc countries (until 1990) were actually right-wing and not communist countries

Max Stirner's defintion of a "spook."

Not realizing eastern bloc countries were victims of Soviet imperialism

Soviet imperialism

the Holodomor

forced labor in the gulag

Progress

Alternative medicine

Authoritarian Socialism

Communist governments imprisoning or executing citizens for not espousing communist orthodoxy

Communist governments imprisoning or executing citizens for espousing right-wing ideas

“Biden should drop out”

Podcasts

spitting on people

Body dysmorphia

Anorexia

Continental philosophy

Analytic philosophy

The right to use anything as your name that you choose as long as it isn't for purposes of fraud

αγάπη

φιλία

ερως

Becoming vegetarian because Jesus loves animals

Believing non-human animals have heritable physical traits

Believing non-human animals have heritable cognitive traits

The Giver

Pottery

Writing

Control of fire

Lack of significant body hair compared to other primates

Behavioral modernity

Bipedalism

Specialist

Joe Biden

2024 Summer Olympics Opening

Kyrsten Sinema

Ideal philosophy student of perfect emptiness

Straight Asian women aged 18-24 from a suburb in Texas who are Catholic or Orthodox and took some college classes

Kamala Harris

Hillary Clinton

Bill Clinton

Josh Shapiro

Mark Kelly

Anonymous

THE International System of Units

interpreting everything as " it's just a slavery with extra steps ... "

doping for mental performance

Good little Biden

Any presidential candidate doping for mental performance :)

Betting objectively negative options on this market towards the side of the political spectrum you don’t identify with

People in 2004 who enjoyed the film White Chicks

Banksy

Being American but liking Hamas

Thinking Ted Cruz is the Zodiac Killer

The belief that a bookstore that carries objectionable content should not face boycotts or government censorship

"No"

"Maybe"

"Sex work is bad because it's work"

"Sex work is good because it's how I get work"

Student section at college football games

Land value tax

Gay Mormons

The metric system, like "see ya in a megasecond" or "ugh, 295K weather is fine but 300K is just unbearable"

The original Constitution of the United States, without any English

the state of Kerala in India

Muammar Gaddafi

People in 1424 who enjoyed "The Canterbury Tales"

People in 2024 who enjoy "The Canterbury Tales"

A tax imposed on, collected by, and funding Gay Mormons

The Bee Movie

Jazz

Feeling threatened by too much power being put into one corporation/network of corporations

Feeling threatened by too much power being put into one person

Madonna (the musician)

Putting too much power in Representatives of The People

"Footloose" starring Kevin Bacon

Eating dog meat

Putting the adequate amount of power in Representatives of The People

Charitably listening to the concerns of the other party.

Women's Suffragettes

John Brown (19th century abolitionist)

Pitbull (singer)

Naivety

David Ben-Gurion

Thomas Jefferson's letter to the Danbury Baptists

Living in a town where everyone goes to the Unitarian church

Living in a town where everyone's kids go to the Montessori school

Living in a kibbutz where everyone works for the same employer

Wittgenstein’s Tractatus

Wittgenstein's Philosophical Investigations

Sleep

Complaining about your grandparents' generation ruining the economy for you

Richard Rorty

Having an accent

Allowing polluters to pay to pollute (i.e. "carbon tax")

Richard Even Rortier

Gavagai

"Possible Girls" by Neil Sinhababu

"Can There Be Vague Objects?" by Gareth Evans

Hesperus

The Duhem-Quine Thesis

Potlucks

Making actors bear the cost of the negative externalities they create

Currency pegs

Capital controls

Hilary Putnam (1977)

Hilary Putnam (1994)

The Principle of Sufficient Reason

Manifold comments in the past few weeks

Empirio-criticism

The Copenhagen Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics

The Many-Worlds Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics

Knowing a ton about Islam despite neither believing nor being raised in it.

Postmodernism

Creating an option in this market and then accidentally betting it in the wrong direction

Philosophical realism

Algebraists

Analysts

Scientific realism

Scientific antirealism

Liking IRV over first past the post, but not liking approval, STAR voting, or Condorcet methods

Being capable of steelmanning the opposition.

Intuitionism (in mathematics)

Justice

Open marriages

Reading nasty people who diaagree with u just for the dopamine hit

Liking Harry Potter in 2019

ASI

Monophysitism

The indictment of NYC Mayor Eric Adams

Emitting CO2 to produce solar panels to be sold on an open market

Gender-confirming medical treatments

Minoxidil

Enlightenment Now

short-selling crude oil

Statistical election models

Being aware of the influence special interest has pumped into social media recommendation/search bias.

Value signaling consumption

Value signaling outfit

Microdosing

Visiting the opera

Being pro-choice for sex-selective abortions

Writing in Joe Biden for president

"Holy hempers" - people who say its okay to smoke weed because Jesus also smoked weed

"Crackheads for Christ" - people who say its okay to smoke crack because Jesus also smoked crack

Going to church without believing it

Driving a hybrid minivan to accommodate your 3+ children

Decree 770

Doodling

Thinking AI art is theft

Thinking going to church without believing in it is an example of embracing tradition for utilitarian reasons

Responsive and spontaneous desire

Kink support/accountability groups

Using mindfulness meditation for better seggs

3d printed, anatomically correct depictions of larger clitoral network

Enthusiastic consent

consent smell aromatherapy candles

Individualised medicine offering pleasure mapping to discover eroggenous zones

A seggs dungeon with a focus on aftercare

A lubricant sommelier certification course

A seggsual fantasy based on consent negotiations

Pro state massage

Hands-on, self-motivated sex

Quick learner with a passion for processes and multitasking in bed

Detail-oriented and organized sex

Missionary sex with lights on

Keir Starmer

Holodomor denial

orange popsicles

Not buying olives with stones

Asking “why?” over and over like 4 yr olds do

Going camping

Cities

Trekking

Mountaineering

Breaking the law

Jill Stein

First time voters.

Home vegetable gardens

Femcels

Voting

Frodo

Sam Gamyi

Legolas

Stealing from a bank

Wiping from front to back

fiction

News

Marxism-Rodgerism

Independent journalism

Magic

Today's Vietnam

National parks

Autarky

Playing Fortnite before the US Election

Non-partisan elections

Biden dropping out

NIH grants

Cybersecurity

This market crashing on mobile because there are too many options

Being broke

Early voting

Dan Osborn

Fingerboarding

Podiatry

Hacky sack

Stray cat trap, neuter, and release

Hoppy beer

Skunky weed

Fruity weed

Grassy weed

Libertarian Progressivism

Progressive Libertarianism

Coloring

Doing Zumba

Playing tuba

Driving Ubers

Ballot initiatives

Doing the one block vertical jump for the beef

Being anxious about the election

Halloween

Making Election Day a holiday

Anarcho-communist homosexual-fascism aka ancom homofash

Killing Peanut The Squirrel

Killing Gorilla Grodd

First Quantization

Second Quantization

1984 by George Orwell

Saying “literally 1984”

The number 1984

Vatican II

earth

the moon

'That 1 friend whose politics makes no sense' in the latest Man Carrying Thing video

Space

Elves

Elfs

Universes Beyond

Waiting in line

election day doomscrolling

doomscrolling (general)

DnD 1e

DnD 5e

Al (not ai)

Al (Yankovic)

Nothing

Time

We Didn’t Start the Fire (song by Billy Joel)

This Land Is Your Land (song by Woody Guthrie)

Opposing AI

Punk

Opposing Force (Half-Life expansion pack)

Opossums

BDSM

Manifold’s average user base

Liberal Democrats (UK)

Silver white winters that melt into springs

Snowflakes that stay on my nose and eyelashes

Wild geese that fly with the moon on their wings

Raindrops on roses and whiskers on kittens

Teachers who swear in class

Pahoehoe

Aa

The Cucuteni-Trypillia culture

Treating your grandma poorly

Safe Sex

Labor unions

UAW

Misandry i.e. hate and discrimination against men

Germany's Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) party

“Y.M.C.A.” by Village People

Twitter (in 2021)

New social medias created because of perceived problems in an existing one (e.g. Truth Social or Bluesky)

Sonic the Hedgehog

Shoes with velcro

Shoes with zips

Wearing trousers as a woman

Skolem's paradox

The Onion

Community Notes on Twitter

Free Trade, in 2024

Donald Trump at whatever time in his life he was most left-wing

Lilith (Diablo 4)

Socrates

Abraham Lincoln

Philip K. Dick

Luigi Mangione

Yourself (reader) ten years ago, compared to yourself today

The Young Turks (news show) in 2016

The Young Turks (news show) today

Jesse Singal

People who don’t vote out of protest

League of Legends

Costco

dath ilan

Scientists

People who don’t vote because they can’t

Ubiratan d’Ambrosio

Ernst Mach

Ratatouille (film)

Ratatouille (dish)

Juche

Voting for Jill Stein

Octopus

Buying a Tesla (in 2019)

Being a lawyer

Needing a lawyer

The Matrix

Battlestar Galactica

Ursula Le Guin

President Xi Jinping

Manifest 2025

Astronauts

Working for NASA

Male vs Female boxing fights

Integrity despite consequences

Siding with the Iranian regime

modal realism

Boxbox riven cosplay

Classical music

being a public intellectual with ostensibly left-leaning views, but whose career would be obsolete without family wealth/connections

Indoor air quality nerds

One night stands

Botox raven cosplay

Moving in together after the second date

The Sinclair method

Being poor while paying massive taxes towards "free" healthcare

Olive oil

Sesame oil

Canola oil

Opinion columnists

The New York Times, as of 7/30/2025

Sam Kriss

Rapeseed oil

Jaywalking

Mario (the Nintendo character)

Mario (the Nintendo games)

The Chinese government (ignoring aesthetics)

Homestuck

Angela Merkel

Dragons

Labubu