Flip Out News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

A major war in Asia occurs

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

Trump visits Africa

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

The US leaves the World Health Organization

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

New James Bond actor is presented

"The New Norm" ends

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Fair elections in 2028

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

US national bitcoin reserve created

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

Approval < 35%

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

A new supreme court justice appointed

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

USA experiences a recession.

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Vances have another kid

trump gets hospitalized

US Invasion of any North/South American country

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

N/A this please, pressed by mistake

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

McDonald's reopens in Russia

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

New

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Trump and Obama shake hands

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

Dow rises above 65,000

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Trump says a racial slur

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

Tesla

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Joe Biden dies

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

10% fewer government agencies

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

BTC falls below $38,000

Trump gets covid (again)

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

New national park created

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Trump announces he is tired of winning

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Constitutional Amendment

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

NATO invokes Article 5

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Trump suggests that there should be a crusade (including jokes)

American Manned Lunar Landing

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

Trump gets shot

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

Anthony Fauci is indicted

JD Vance elected President

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Another pandemic

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

The department of education gets desolved

Starship lands on Mars

Record level unemployment

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

War is declared against another nation

Trump dies

Laura Loomer gets any government role

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Approval < 25%

Trump loses the fake tan

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

south park is canceled/discontinued

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump runs for a third term

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump extends his term past 4 years

54 or more Republican senate seats

Trump is assassinated

Cannabis is federally legalized

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture with both hands at once

55 or more Republican senate seats

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

A national ban on gender-affirming care

"covfefe" posted again

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump threatens Israel with military action

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Repeal obamacare

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Constitutional Amendment

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump and Melania divorce

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump bans abortion nationwide

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump accurately quotes a Bible verse with its Book Chapter:Verse citation, verbally and without reading from a script/notes/autocue, excluding Genesis 1:1

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Anthony Fauci is convicted

New US national anthem

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

A hurricane will be nuked

Jimmy Carter dies

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

YES

Lionel Messi to score at least one goal

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 200

The Golden Boot winner to score 6+ goals

Someone scores 5+ goals within group stage

USA survives group stage

2+ red cards in any match

Any player scores at least a goal 3 matches in a row

Goal from last kick of the game

Cristiano Ronaldo to score a goal

Mexico survives group stage

Canada survives group stage

3+ red cards in any match

6+ yellow cards in any match

Red card issued for mouth covering

Team with 0 wins in Group Stage

Black player gets the red card

Bicycle kick attempt

Team scores after being down to 10 men

Both teams score in stoppage time

Player scores against country of birth/heritage

Player bleeding on camera during match

Team loses possession from delay throw-in

Player scores a hat-trick

Over 9.5 own goals scored

Over 7.5 goals scored in a single group stage match

Over 202.5 goals scored in group stage

US scores in every single group stage match

Play suspended for more than 1.5 hours in a single match

Teenager scores a goal (non penalty shoot-out)

Team finishes match with 9 players

French-born player scores against France

Team makes it to Round of 32 with no goals conceded

Goal scored directly from a free-kick

A coach is sacked before the end of the tournament

Team is undefeated for the entire tournament (only wins & draws)

Team ends Group Stage with a clean sheet

Player not born in the country they are playing for scores 2+ goals

“Puto” chant at match

Referee falls down

Match has a dedicated moment of silence

Any host places 1st in their group

Curaçao scores a goal

Haaland scores over 3.5 goals

Messi scores a goal at 39 years old

Neymar plays in a match

Vuvuzela spotted in the stadium stands

At least two Mohammeds (all variants) score ≥1 goal

gruesome leg/ankle/arm injury

Will either Bosnia and Herzegovina or Qatar advance to the next round?

Will Cristiano Ronaldo Score Atleast A Goal In Next Match Against Uzbekistan

Will any group finish with either all draws or zero draws?

Will both brothers of any pair score at this World Cup?

Foam spray is used on field to mark penalty / free kick

Cape Verde scores a goal

Will any more team(s) from Europe finish 4th in the group?

Messi to score a free kick

Pride flag at Egypt v Iran match

Austria Pays Its Debt to Algeria? (Austria loses or draws with Algeria AND both teams qualify. Inspired by the 1982 “Disgrace of Gijón”)

3+ penalty shootout

Player is complaining about the Trionda ball / blames it for the losing

Trump still alive at end of final match

Messi is top Argentinian goal-scorer

Fan hospitalized for heat related illness

Vorzinha concedes a goal by Argentina player in regular play

Kylian Mbappe & Harry Kane to Score 9+ Goals Combined

Player tears their ACL

Trump attends match

Unauthorized person gets on the pitch during match

Over 10.5 red cards

This World Cup Market reaches 500 traders

Players cleat falls off their foot

Emmanuel Macron attends match

Penalty shootout goes 6+ rounds

3 or more coaches resign or are fired before end of World Cup

South American team reaches semi-final

VAR to overturn at least 20 decisions

Bottle thrown on field

Champion is a first place group stage winner

A penalty shootout contains a missed winning kick (Matchball)

Champion is unbeaten

Single top goalscorer in tournament (not tied)

Ronaldo to cry at the world cup

2+ European countries reach top 4

20+ penalty goals

Golden Glove Winner wears Senda, Rinat, RG, Voit or Adidas brand glove

Another match day ending in all draws (regular time)

Ronaldo gets in referee face

Over 289.5 total goals scored*

Messi scores more goals than Mbappe

Penalty shootout to decide a quarter-final match

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 310

Gianni Infantino travels more than 50K miles during the tournament by airplane

Any host nation in quarter final

Asian player misses penalty kick

Crowd jump registers on local seismic sensor

Penalty shootout goes 7+ rounds

No red cards issued in the Final match

Both teams in final have red on their flag

Any country ranked outside FIFA Top 10 to reach semifinals (as of 6/11)

Players from any other league outscore PL players in the tournament

The ballon d’or is awarded to a player from World Cup winner

Trump kicks or holds a soccer ball at any time during tournament

A fully southern hemisphere team (Australia, NZ, South Africa, Uruguay or Argentina) makes semi finals.

The Golden Boot winner to score 8+ goals

Coaches of both teams in final match are wearing suits

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 300

The Golden Ball is awarded to a player from tournament winner

More own goals than red cards in tourney

US goes further than Mexico

Visible debris thrown during corner kick attempt

Messi gets a yellow card

Over 6.5 matches ending 0-0 (regular time only)

First team to lead goes through in 24+ knockout matches? (penalties count)

Flipping Coinflips – Do teams shooting first win more penalty shootouts?

Someone escorted off field shirtless

Elon Musk attends match

Golden Boot Winner wears Nike branded cleats

Player with the heat stroke / heat related illness

Penalty shootout to decide semi-final match

USA to reach the Quarter-finals or further

Over 14.5 own goals scored

2 UEFA teams in final

Unofficial drone is reported flying over a stadium

Freddy attends the final match

Laser pointer on goalie during match

A player or their teams gets sanctioned by FIFA (i. e. a fine, an overturned result, a suspension) for a goal celebration with a political or politics-adjacent message

Team loses after leading 2-0

France becomes finalist

Goal scored within 1st minute

15+ minutes of the stoppage time

Spain goes further than France

Last penalty shoot-out kick of tournament is missed/saved

16+ knockout matches to be won by 2+ goals inc. Extra Time (no Penalties)

VAR overturns second yellow card

Flares in stands during match in USA

Betting scandal reported

France, Mexico, and Argentina all make it to the quarter finals

Any one of Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe, or Erling Haaland to score a hattrick

5+ hat tricks

USA player gets the red card

Hooligans light the fireworks at night by team hotel for disruption

Winning team has a foreign manager

Team captain gets red card

Final is a rematch of a previous World Cup

Trump acts innapropriate with trophy at final

Team particpates in 3+ penalty shoot-outs

Youngest player of the tournament scores a goal

Bald person gets the red card

Messi scores on every game he plays

Weather postponement or delay for greater than 3 hours

Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce attend match

Over 30.5 penalties scored (excludes shoot-outs)

Over 395.5 yellow cards

Both players in this photo* play each other in a match

Record for hottest WC match ever played broken (>101°)

Player blames an injury on poor stadium grass

Team reaches the quarter-finals through draws and penalties

Asian player gets the red card

A penalty shootout to decide the Final match

Canada goes further than US

Final features a team that has never made it to the final before

First penalty shootout kick of tournament is missed/saved

Champion is a first time World Cup winner

Belgium plays against The Netherlands

30+ penalty goals

Palestinian or Israeli flag on field during match

Salt Bae attending a match

Freddy shown during a match broadcast

Goalkeeper attempts shot in PKs

Smoke bomb during match in USA

The Golden Boot winner is decided by # assists

Player gets spat on during match

25+ people arrested at stadium

17+ knockout matches to be won by 2+ goals - Regular time only!

Any match is canceled or postponed

Game is turned around in stoppage team (one team leads at 90:00, the other team scores twice or more in stoppage time to win it)

Golden boot & golden ball won by the same player

Team USA fans pull off a decent Tifo

England loses on penalties

Animal (not birdy) is on field during match

King Charles attends match

Any two brothers play against each other (Both must be on the pitch at the same time)

ICE makes a capture at the stadium

Over 8.5 penalties missed (excludes shoot-outs)

World Cup winner to never trail in a match

Player throws captains armband

Headbutt during match

Player wearing a face mask in semi-final match

Haaland scores on every game he plays

Ronaldo does not start

Knockout Stage (incl 3rd/4th) to match or exceed Group-Stage scoring average

Play suspended for more than 2.5 hours in a single match

World Champion's goals > total goals of all teams out in group stage

An African nation to reach the Semi-finals

Coach on camera during match smelling finger(s)

Any player injured in opening group match & out for rest of tournament

Fans invade field during match

Scorigami (a match ends in a score that has never happened at a World Cup; for the purpose of this answer refers only to result before extra time / shootout)

Will any player be seen drinking gatorade during a hydration break?

Will Merlin the duck correctly predict both remaining MEX group stage matches?

The Netherlands reaches half-final

Voodoo doll or alive chicken in stands

Player walks off pitch protesting referee

Football is coming home?

Disruption at Iran match

15+ cards in any match

Asia team reaches semi final

Trump attends 3 or more games

Pulisic top Team USA goal scorer

Player wearing oxygen mask on sideline

Bonnie Blue attending a match

Erling Haaland to win the Golden Boot

Over 1.5 of the visible penis in world cup tourney (during match, on pitch)

Major security incident

The fastest goal of the tournament is scored within 30 seconds

Another match with 3+ red cards

10+ goals in any match

Player bit during match

Goal scored from own half

Goalkeeper scores a non-penalty goal

Team wins a match without making a single substitution

Match is forfeited

Trump dancing at match

Messi and Ronaldo play in the same match

An over-enthusiastic goal celebration results in a shattered corner flag

Players / members of team attempt to defect

Team gets removed or disqualified

Player arrested / detained at any time of tournament

Player suffers cardiac arrest

Someone from Trump administration celebrating in locker room

Oldest player in tournament gets a yellow card

German Freddy is uncovered to be the marketing stunt

Olimpico goal (goal scored directly from corner kick, counts if corner taker is credited as the goalscorer by FIFA)

Team finishes third in group and makes it to final

Shooting incident (non-ball) at stadium

Total goals in the tournament to exceed 400

Match delayed due to homophobic crowd chant

Omar Artan is at a World Cup match

Confirmed case of Ebola at the match

Team gets to final on all penalty shoot-outs in knockout rounds

Ronaldo does jerkin move

Player shits in the pants during match

Match delayed due to anti-Trump crowd chant

Fastest goal record beaten (11 seconds)

Player drinking Liquid Death at hydration break

Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei attending a match

Player dies during World Cup

5+ group stage winners advance with 9 points (3 wins)

The Netherlands does not survive group stage

All 3 host countries win the opener

All 48 teams score at least 1 goal

Ronaldo scores before Messi

All teams concede at least 1 goal in group stage

Team makes it to Round of 16 with zero yellow cards

4+ Corners in Every Group Stage Match

USA plays Iran

Mohamed Salah (Egypt) scores 5+ goals during Group Stage Fixtures (Round of 64)

A group-stage match is decided by a freak "Olympico" goal scored directly from a corner

6+ teams with negative goal difference advance from the group stage

A third-placed team is eliminated with 4+ points

Any team with <3 points advances from the group stage

Coding agents will close the loop

Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

Coding agents will flip the initiative

The multi-agent paradigm will win

The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

“Live learning” will be standard

YES

YES

US/Israeli announce Iran navy annihilated. All surface ships bigger than 10 tons. Small subs also not counted

Regular opposition broadcasts hacking Iran TV 3 more times. Like the State TV/IRIB satellite hack.

A brigade or base commander in any city switches sides

Interim council fractures, or all current dead or one member defects publicly

One or more Town(s), city(s), declare as free of iran regime control for over 2 days

NO

NO

NO

2

3

4

0

1

Dems flip TX or OH

Reps flip GA or MI

neither