OptionProbability
Before trial begins: all 4 charges dropped, or whole case dismissed
Before a verdict of guilt for any of these charges: all 4 charges dropped, or whole case dismissed
Trial begins before 2031
Trump serves “house arrest” for any of the 4 alleged violations
Convicted of “Conspiracy to Defraud the United States”
Convicted of “Conspiracy to Obstruct an Official Proceeding”
Convicted of “Obstruction of and Attempt to Obstruct an Official Proceeding”
Convicted of “Conspiracy Against Rights”
Convicted of all 4 alleged violations
Trump goes to prison for any of the 4 alleged violations
99
49
46
31
10
7
Other
2028
2029
2027
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2026
2025
45
6
4
2
NO
YES
491
409
OptionVotes
157
143
120
102
