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Prediction markets for French State

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

3.1%chance

8225584

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4756

624

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

May 29, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.44%chance

473985

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1439

695

Will France recognize Palestine by EOY2025?

Apr 10, 2:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

88.76%chance

422785

OptionVotes

NO

YES

281

36

France recognizes Palestine by end of September?

May 26, 9:52 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

85.87%chance

372078

OptionVotes

NO

YES

247

41

Will any European country formally recognize a Palestinian state between June and December 2025?

Jun 6, 12:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.74%chance

161605

OptionVotes

NO

YES

544

18

What will be the next capital city to be occupied by a foreign military?

Oct 8, 12:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

451538

OptionProbability

Yemen: Sana’a

Other

Fiji: Suva

Taiwan: Taipei

Estonia: Tallinn

Moldova: Chișinău

Rwanda: Kigali

Ramallah

Kiev

Armenia: Yerevan

Belarus: Minsk

Lithuania: Vilnius

Latvia: Riga

Haiti: Port-au-Prince

USA: Washington DC

Russia: Moscow

Ethiopia: Addis Ababa

DRC: Kinshasa

Georgia: Tbilisi

Iraq: Baghdad

Venezuela: Caracas

Afghanistan: Kabul

Myanmar: Naypyidaw

North Korea: Pyongyang

Iran: Tehran

Nicaragua: Managua

Warsaw, Poland

Beirut, Lebanon

Jerusalem

Eritrea: Asmara

Syria: Damascus

Somalia: Mogadishu

South Sudan: Juba

Khartoum, Sudan

Niger: Niamey

71

6

5

4

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will a Druze state exist by the end of 2030?

Feb 26, 12:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

28.8%chance

14953

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3444

2686

Will there be an ISIS terrorist attack in France in 2025?

Sep 13, 6:17 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.54%chance

10527

OptionVotes

YES

NO

141

71

Will a peacekeeping force of at least 10,000 non-Ukrainian European soldiers be stationed in Ukraine by years' end?

Feb 20, 4:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.11%chance

10326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

193

52

Will any part of French Polynesia be a sovereign state before 2040?

Jun 18, 7:29 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

28.48%chance

462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

47

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