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Prediction markets for Frontier
When will Frontier Airlines first offer transatlantic flights?
Nov 16, 7:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
1297277
OptionProbability
44
24
22
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
Will a Chinese-made AI beat o3's December score on Frontier Math by the end of 2025?
Dec 23, 1:32 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM
30.25%chance
9837981
OptionVotes
1519
659
Will any AI model achieve > 40% on Frontier Math before 2026?
Jan 17, 9:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
71.49%chance
4814161
OptionVotes
1584
631
Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?
May 20, 2:41 PMJan 8, 7:59 AM
44.8%chance
302531
OptionVotes
1110
901
OptionVotes
1035
966
OptionVotes
1195
837
Before 2026, will frontier AI models get much better at expressing calibrated uncertainty in their answers?
Feb 6, 12:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
65.35%chance
8758
OptionVotes
1373
728
Will the US require a license to develop frontier AI models by 2028?
Apr 28, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
50.02%chance
20553
OptionVotes
1211
711
Will there be a significant advancement in frontier AI model architecture by end of year 2026?
Aug 14, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
39%chance
6277
OptionVotes
1251
800
Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?
Nov 19, 2:42 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM
56.51%chance
4140
OptionVotes
1140
877
Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?
Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
52.7%chance
3117
OptionVotes
1056
947
Before 2027, will an AI product from an American frontier lab readily identify Fetal Alcohol Syndrome in faces?
Sep 15, 11:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
49.69%chance
390
OptionVotes
1006
994