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Top stories

China Urges Israel to Scrap Gaza City Takeover, Calls for Ceasefire

China Urges Israel to Scrap Gaza City Takeover, Calls for Ceasefire

Authors

10

5 days ago

Prediction markets for Fu

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.32%chance

387910107104

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10888

10453

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

84%chance

1301057730

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

745

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.99%chance

874488045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16267

11413

Manifest 2025 Startup Pitch Competition - Will at least 3 companies get funding?

May 9, 3:23 PMAug 31, 10:59 PM

10.9%chance

79222374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170510

16369

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?

Jun 11, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47%chance

149118941

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10619

9417

Did Trump have sexual relations with an underage girl? (based on 2025 evidence, according to future poll)

Jul 23, 2:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.82%chance

350109960

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1066

938

Will there be a functional Tesla bot in Mars by 2034?

Jan 23, 12:10 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

25%chance

6662788

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1157

907

Will fusion provide >2% of US electrical power before 2050?

May 27, 9:10 PMDec 31, 7:11 PM

32.81%chance

6762104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1027

949

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83%chance

11419905

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4405

1278

Will I be diagnosed with high-functioning autism before 2025?

Jun 2, 6:13 PMApr 15, 6:59 AM

46.41%chance

169425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

21548

12824

Will Germany have a nuclear fission power plant again before fusion?

May 27, 7:34 PMMay 28, 7:19 PM

54.99%chance

211304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11052

9048

If I play Kung Fu Chess against someone who's rated at least 1800 in regular chess, will I win?

Jan 31, 11:42 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

32.78%chance

7242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

167

162

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