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Prediction markets for Ga

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.5%chance

553464228

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2901

2279

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.03%chance

384144778

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7726

6753

Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025?

Jun 2, 4:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.66%chance

6021073

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13006

6885

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.39%chance

196976

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13522

7406

Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for Sale General Availability (GA) by 2026?

Jan 16, 5:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10%chance

193534

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2734

514

Who will win GA-01 in the 2026 midterms?

May 28, 1:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11573

OptionProbability

Other

Buddy Carter

91

9

Which senate flip is more likely? Dems take TX or OH, or Reps take GA or MI?

Jul 28, 3:27 PMNov 6, 4:25 PM

10524

OptionProbability

Dems flip TX or OH

neither

Reps flip GA or MI

both

47

29

23

2

Which party will win GA-01 in the 2026 midterms?

May 28, 1:13 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

3332

OptionProbability

Democratic

Republican

Other

56

43

1

Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for Sale General Availability (GA) by 2027?

Jan 16, 5:03 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33%chance

9315

OptionVotes

YES

NO

187

39

GA-13 D primary winner

Apr 28, 11:55 AMMay 19, 11:59 PM

2144

OptionProbability

Jasmine Clark

Everton Blair

Emanuel Jones

Heavenly Kimes

Jeffree Fauntleroy

Joe Lester

51

16

15

9

5

5

Who will be the Democratic nominee for GA-01 in the 2026 midterms?

May 28, 1:14 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

112

OptionProbability

Other

Patti Hewitt

55

45

Where will the 11th U.S. National Eucharistic Congress in 2029 take place?

Dec 12, 4:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Chicago, IL

New Orleans, LA

St. Louis, MO

Los Angeles, CA

Philadelphia, PA

Boston, MA

San Antonio, TX

Atlanta, GA

Denver, CO

Dallas, TX

Other (Comment below for which city - may add to the list)

Other

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

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