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Prediction markets for Ga

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.9%chance

613548563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5386

853

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22.95%chance

427168325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12207

4763

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?

Sep 30, 7:42 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

80%chance

177111817

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1917

201

Will gay marriage be illegal in the United States during Trump's presidency.

Dec 5, 4:35 PMJan 23, 4:59 AM

3.21%chance

6784562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

59041

3675

Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025?

Jun 2, 4:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.54%chance

7327748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13488

6542

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.63%chance

3315534

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15062

6649

Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for Sale General Availability (GA) by 2026?

Jan 16, 5:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.95%chance

258410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6179

317

Will an LLM Agent discover a single significant contribution (+100 elo gain ) over the leading chess engine before 2028?

Nov 4, 5:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.64%chance

98202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17028

5873

Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for Sale General Availability (GA) by 2027?

Jan 16, 5:03 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.9%chance

11329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

201

33

which teams will qual for nationals from GA this year

Sep 21, 4:46 AMApr 11, 10:59 PM

2225

OptionProbability

walton hs

fsa hs

chatahoochee hs

brookwood hs

ia hs

gsmst hs

northview hs

66

59

46

22

13

8

6

How will I rate Garriga 1997? (+free lottery)

Nov 7, 5:11 AMNov 9, 1:11 AM

50.16%chance

640

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10032

9968

Where will the 11th U.S. National Eucharistic Congress in 2029 take place?

Dec 12, 4:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Chicago, IL

New Orleans, LA

St. Louis, MO

Los Angeles, CA

Philadelphia, PA

Boston, MA

San Antonio, TX

Atlanta, GA

Denver, CO

Dallas, TX

Other (Comment below for which city - may add to the list)

Other

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

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