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Prediction markets for Ga

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

42.67%chance

556467615

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2818

2386

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.21%chance

389146767

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8075

6113

Will gay marriage be illegal in the United States during Trump's presidency.

Dec 5, 4:35 PMJan 23, 4:59 AM

3.31%chance

6783631

OptionVotes

YES

NO

57797

3717

Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025?

Jun 2, 4:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.32%chance

6221652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13081

6829

Will China reinstate or enforce export restrictions on gallium after current suspension expires in Nov?

Dec 26, 5:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.27%chance

217018

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13559

7386

Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for Sale General Availability (GA) by 2026?

Jan 16, 5:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.98%chance

203537

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2737

513

Who will be the Democratic nominee for GA-01 in the 2026 midterms?

May 28, 1:14 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

32205

OptionProbability

Other

Patti Hewitt

98

2

Who will win GA-01 in the 2026 midterms?

May 28, 1:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11573

OptionProbability

Other

Buddy Carter

91

9

Which senate flip is more likely? Dems take TX or OH, or Reps take GA or MI?

Jul 28, 3:27 PMNov 6, 4:25 PM

12693

OptionProbability

Dems flip TX or OH

Reps flip GA or MI

neither

both

51

24

22

3

Which party will win GA-01 in the 2026 midterms?

May 28, 1:13 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

4483

OptionProbability

Republican

Democratic

Other

90

10

1

Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for Sale General Availability (GA) by 2027?

Jan 16, 5:03 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

31.46%chance

10319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

191

37

Where will the 11th U.S. National Eucharistic Congress in 2029 take place?

Dec 12, 4:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Chicago, IL

New Orleans, LA

St. Louis, MO

Los Angeles, CA

Philadelphia, PA

Boston, MA

San Antonio, TX

Atlanta, GA

Denver, CO

Dallas, TX

Other (Comment below for which city - may add to the list)

Other

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

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