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Prediction markets for Ga

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46%chance

547459947

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2969

2196

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51%chance

369133327

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2199

2191

Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025?

Jun 2, 4:04 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.98%chance

5420240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13385

6612

Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for Sale General Availability (GA) by 2026?

Jan 16, 5:02 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.12%chance

183337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2538

537

Gemini 3 Pro GA METR 50% time horizon

Feb 4, 2:53 PMApr 1, 10:59 PM

133264

OptionProbability

Other

6h30 - 7h00

6h00 - 6h30

5h30 - 6h00

4h30 - 5h00

5h00 - 5h30

7h00 - 7h30

3h30 - 4h00

4h00 - 4h30

<3h30

41

11

10

9

8

8

8

2

2

1

Who will win GA-01 in the 2026 midterms?

May 28, 1:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11573

OptionProbability

Other

Buddy Carter

91

9

Which senate flip is more likely? Dems take TX or OH, or Reps take GA or MI?

Jul 28, 3:27 PMNov 6, 4:25 PM

10495

OptionProbability

Dems flip TX or OH

neither

Reps flip GA or MI

both

45

30

23

2

Who will win the special election to fill Marjorie Taylor Greene's seat (GA-14)?

Mar 10, 4:15 PMJun 10, 4:11 PM

8446

OptionProbability

Clay Fuller (R)

Shawn Harris (D)

Colton Moore (R)

Other

91

7

1

1

Which party will win GA-01 in the 2026 midterms?

May 28, 1:13 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

3332

OptionProbability

Democratic

Republican

Other

56

43

1

Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for Sale General Availability (GA) by 2027?

Jan 16, 5:03 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35%chance

7302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

182

42

Who will be the Democratic nominee for GA-01 in the 2026 midterms?

May 28, 1:14 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

112

OptionProbability

Other

Patti Hewitt

55

45

Where will the 11th U.S. National Eucharistic Congress in 2029 take place?

Dec 12, 4:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Chicago, IL

New Orleans, LA

St. Louis, MO

Los Angeles, CA

Philadelphia, PA

Boston, MA

San Antonio, TX

Atlanta, GA

Denver, CO

Dallas, TX

Other (Comment below for which city - may add to the list)

Other

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

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