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Gap News

Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]

Jan 15, 8:44 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

53.23%chance

9083678

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1321

337

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before 2030?

Feb 26, 6:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.93%chance

252220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1028

442

Will Bitcoin experience "mining gaps" before the first 365-day period where transaction fees are >1/2 of total block rewards?

Dec 18, 9:07 AMMar 3, 4:59 AM

13.36%chance

14938

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1277

916

Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all current major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?

Oct 27, 5:11 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

8.61%chance

11715

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1249

958

Will the gap between open-weights and frontier models on GPQA Diamond be at most 7%?

Aug 5, 9:17 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

49.43%chance

8600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

99

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.23%chance

14560

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

931

Narva, Suwałki Gap, Rostov-on-Don - Entangled market

Mar 14, 1:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

68.32%chance

3196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

178

79

The gap will close between the quality of open source language models and Google's internal language models in 5 years

May 4, 7:06 PMMay 4, 7:05 PM

41.85%chance

5190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

93

86

Will a road crossing the Darien Gap have finished construction by 2050?

Aug 16, 11:25 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

42.4%chance

778

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

120

Benchmark Gap #9: Once a model solves current software engineering benchmarks, how long until humans don't code?

Jul 16, 10:00 PMJan 1, 10:15 PM

460

Will Fundamental Development Gap Map stay relevant and updated by 2027?

Apr 20, 4:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.41%chance

27

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

93

Is Conjecture 8.4 of "Proximity Gaps for Reed–Solomon Codes" true?

May 29, 6:49 PMJul 20, 4:59 AM

51%chance

37

OptionVotes

NO

YES

71

69

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