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Prediction markets for Gary

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.51%chance

355128360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2540

1886

Will Miles Brundage win his bet with Gary Marcus?

Dec 28, 6:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

23.03%chance

10148855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5915

4920

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

Sep 16, 8:34 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

89.93%chance

11745514

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2062

1522

Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage

Jan 8, 12:19 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

3130050

OptionProbability

Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels)

Task 1 will be achieved (understand a movie)

Task 3 will be achieved (write biographies)

Task 6 will be achieved (write 10k lines of code)

Task 10 will be achieved (write formally verifiable proofs)

Task 5 will be achieved (write legal briefs)

Task 4 will be achieved (video gaming)

Task 8 will be achieved (write Oscar level screenplays)

Task 9 will be achieved (Nobel level science)

The bet will be annulled

Task 7 will be achieved (write Pulitzer calibre books)

Miles will win the bet

Miles will win the bet by the end of 2026

Miles will win the bet by the end of 2025

88

78

71

70

66

65

43

26

25

25

23

14

6

1

By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

Sep 16, 8:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

86.92%chance

9025906

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1895

1106

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.61%chance

11225232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1668

729

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

82.27%chance

10116414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2263

656

Will Gary Marcus get AGI-pilled in 2025?

Jan 26, 8:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1.1%chance

2915322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9482

105

In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

Sep 16, 8:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

59.79%chance

11415066

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2017

1002

Will Sam Altman win a defamation case against Gary Marcus before 2030?

Feb 1, 5:41 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

3.09%chance

124819

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5494

16

Gary Marcus prediction: physical reasoning of AI systems will improve before psychological reasoning

Jan 23, 8:50 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

28.51%chance

363775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

974

Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?

Sep 16, 9:19 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

89.48%chance

413065

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1830

824

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