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Prediction markets for Gary

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22.95%chance

427168325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12207

4763

Will Miles Brundage win his bet with Gary Marcus?

Dec 28, 6:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39.28%chance

13995007

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6034

3354

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

Sep 16, 8:34 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

88.92%chance

12755508

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1879

1543

Possible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage

Jan 8, 12:19 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

4340370

OptionProbability

Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels)

Task 6 will be achieved (write 10k lines of code)

Task 10 will be achieved (write formally verifiable proofs)

Task 1 will be achieved (understand a movie)

Task 3 will be achieved (write biographies)

Task 5 will be achieved (write legal briefs)

Task 4 will be achieved (video gaming)

Task 9 will be achieved (Nobel level science)

Miles will win the bet

Task 7 will be achieved (write Pulitzer calibre books)

Task 8 will be achieved (write Oscar level screenplays)

The bet will be annulled

Miles will win the bet by the end of 2026

Miles will win the bet by the end of 2025

92

91

88

84

81

80

65

42

35

30

29

22

3

1

By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

Sep 16, 8:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

93.73%chance

9630812

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3607

937

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

92.21%chance

11626924

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3190

523

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

78.47%chance

10719653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1971

727

In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

Sep 16, 8:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

56.49%chance

11915639

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1904

1083

Will Sam Altman win a defamation case against Gary Marcus before 2030?

Feb 1, 5:41 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

3.3%chance

134820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5464

17

Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?

Sep 16, 9:19 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

93%chance

444365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2605

751

In 2028, will LLMs still be able to get Gary Marcus to make egregious errors?

Mar 8, 1:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

91.7%chance

15769

OptionVotes

YES

NO

989

728

Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)

Dec 25, 9:09 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

87.22%chance

24706

OptionVotes

YES

NO

989

872

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