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Prediction markets for Government Center

3. Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a messy falling-out. This will have meaningful consequences for the world of AI.

Dec 27, 8:14 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

79.49%chance

6116874

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1969

508

Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?

Jun 1, 2:14 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

17.63%chance

496222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4593

1443

Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2030?

Jun 2, 9:14 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

15.09%chance

393485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2372

422

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.85%chance

82541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10867

9202

Kendi/DiAngelo school of DEI widely repudiated as racist OR paranoid in USA before 2040.

Jul 13, 1:16 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

76.19%chance

191852

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

851

Will some AIs have a right to own property in the United States before 2050?

Aug 6, 12:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.28%chance

251496

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

966

Will there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2035?

Jun 1, 12:28 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

31.83%chance

241468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1464

683

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.23%chance

261358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1194

838

US citizen sent to CECOT before EOY 2028?

Apr 16, 7:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.31%chance

71280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1981

505

What donation-accepting entity (e.g., charity) would it be morally best to transfer $20 under the coherent extrapolation of my (Aaron Bergman's) values, all things considered?

Feb 6, 4:25 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

221270

OptionProbability

Lightcone Infrastructure

Rethink Priorities

Arthropoda Foundation

Other

Shrimp Welfare Initiative

Machine Intelligence Research Institute

Insect Welfare Research Society

Long-term Future Fund

Center on Long-Term Risk

Animal Welfare Fund (EA Funds)

Fish Welfare Initiative

Do not donate (ie Aaron keeps the $20 - maybe but not explicitly to donate later)

Center for Reducing Suffering

The Humane League

Center for the Governance of AI

Rethink Probabilities

GiveWell

Patient Philanthropy Fund

NYU Mind, Ethics, and Policy Program

Sentience Institute

Centre for Long-Term Resilience

Holly Elmore / Pause AI

Centre for Effective Altruism

Qualia Research Institute

Longview Emerging Challenges Fund

ALLFED

17

13

13

13

10

9

6

5

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will SCOTUS hear a Third Amendment case by EOY 2030?

Jan 1, 9:41 AMDec 9, 5:59 AM

8.42%chance

131163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1599

901

Will any Amazon Web Services data center be nationalized by any country by 2030?

Mar 5, 11:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.22%chance

17239

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

991

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