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Prediction markets for Governor House

When will Texas "Turn Purple"

Sep 27, 3:49 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

422916

OptionProbability

2030-2034

2025-2029

2035-2039

2050 or later

2045-2049

Before 2025

41

34

13

8

4

1

If the Texas GOP succeeds in redistricting, will they gain seats in the midterms?

Jul 21, 11:15 AMNov 8, 12:14 PM

86.69%chance

171725

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2552

392

Dems+GOP at all times hold >96% of each: US House, Senate, Governors, and state legislatures

Sep 6, 3:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

93%chance

5801

OptionVotes

NO

YES

356

101

Will Matthew McConaughey run for the Senate or the House of Representatives or governor before 2050?

Jan 14, 7:34 PMJan 22, 4:59 AM

36.79%chance

14707

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

958

Next Canadian federal election by April 30th, 2027?

Apr 30, 5:32 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

28.84%chance

5705

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1571

637

Will Texas enact new a congressional map during its second 2025 special session?

Aug 15, 4:23 PMSep 5, 10:59 PM

65.79%chance

8470

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1387

721

California attempts redistricting in 2025?

Jul 29, 1:42 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

94.61%chance

7386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

419

24

Will any of Donald Trump's children run for Senate, House, Governor, President or VP before the end of 2028?

May 2, 7:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.49%chance

8180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

162

62

When will Canada separate itself from the monarchy?

Mar 31, 1:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3175

OptionProbability

Not before King Charles has died/abdicated (not necessarily immediately)

By 2050

Not before Quebec declares independence

By 2040

Not before closing date

Before Quebec declares independence

While under King Charles

By 2030

In 2025

83

76

66

50

50

28

17

17

13

Will the 2028 Democratic or Republican nominee be a non-politician?

Nov 7, 10:01 PMNov 8, 4:59 AM

32.23%chance

2145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

69

Will the BRIGHT Act pass in the Massachusetts 194th General Court?

Apr 22, 5:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.57%chance

2135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1115

897

California AB 609 passes?

Apr 28, 3:11 PMDec 31, 4:09 PM

72.99%chance

464

OptionVotes

NO

YES

164

61

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