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Prediction markets for Grant

Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?

Nov 14, 3:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.3%chance

15386753

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6266

1436

Will an AI be granted legal personhood in any country by end of 2030?

May 19, 6:47 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

22.09%chance

21534169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6371

4040

Will SCOTUS rule that 14A doesn't grant citizenship to US-born children of undocumented immigrant parents by 2030?

Jan 28, 11:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.98%chance

2016016

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17376

6671

Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support unconditional cash transfers before 2027?

Dec 18, 3:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36%chance

3415050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6351

3156

Which country will grant Sheikh Hasina extended asylum by the end of 2025?

Aug 7, 5:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

178953

OptionProbability

India

UK

Other

China

Malaysia

Germany

Pakistan

Russia

France

35

23

16

7

5

4

4

3

3

Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support breastfeeding promotion before 2027?

Aug 23, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.72%chance

738464

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7531

3749

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Supreme Court grants certiorari in Monsanto v. Durnell before 2026?

May 19, 4:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.08%chance

124156

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5323

2519

Will any country grant legal rights to any new "nonhuman" entities (AI, robots, aliens...) before end of year 2040?

Mar 30, 1:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

52.01%chance

562081

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1344

1104

Will I get an emergent ventures grant?

Oct 31, 7:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.3%chance

14634

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1187

696

NSF awards a CAREER grant this year?

May 13, 9:06 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

44.14%chance

4391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1125

889

Donald Trump gets pardoned or granted clemency by EOY 2032

Mar 24, 2:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

8174

OptionVotes

YES

NO

148

108

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