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Top stories

BART Restores Full Service After Transbay Tube Power Failure

Authors

3

4 days ago

Prediction markets for Green

If Zack Polanski becomes leader of the Green Party (UK), how many Labour MPs will defect to the Greens?

Jun 3, 10:10 AMJun 3, 10:04 AM

154107

OptionProbability

0 defections

1 defection

Polanski does not become Green Party leader.

2-5 defections

6-10 defections

11+ defections

79

11

7

1

1

1

Will Marjorie Taylor Greene ever be president of a new confederacy?

Aug 13, 1:47 PMAug 21, 3:59 AM

3.59%chance

412159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1973

893

Will "On green" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Mar 25, 12:04 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

81.04%chance

161020

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1069

874

Will a Hubble Servicing mission receive a green light in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)

Jan 1, 7:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.89%chance

6995

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1428

700

Will John Green's next book be fiction?

Mar 11, 5:15 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.01%chance

5850

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1830

546

Will Zack Polanski become leader of the Green party

May 5, 9:36 AMDec 31, 9:33 AM

88.73%chance

5578

OptionVotes

NO

YES

281

36

There are no USA Presidents that had Green eyes. Will there be one by March 1st 2063?

Mar 21, 5:50 PMMar 2, 4:59 AM

28.47%chance

12547

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

926

Will Clean Air Task Force be recommended as a top charity by Founders Pledge or Giving Green in 2026?

May 23, 3:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76%chance

5314

OptionVotes

NO

YES

334

180

Will Congress pass a bill eliminating or increasing per-country caps on employment-based green cards by December 31 2026

Jan 30, 6:42 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

37.29%chance

4302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1297

771

Will the Green Anaconda, a.k.a. Giant Anaconda (Eunectes murinus) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 28, 7:22 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17.5%chance

5268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

716

410

Will the number of employment-based green cards awarded in 2025 be lower than 160,000?

Nov 8, 11:39 AMOct 2, 2:59 AM

82.64%chance

8216

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1185

931

Will the Australian outback be ‘greened’ / terraformed / geo-engineered before 2100?

Sep 11, 12:17 AMJan 10, 12:59 PM

86.74%chance

4162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

176

31

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