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OptionProbability
It won't release during 2024
Its knowledge cutoff will be in or later than July 2024
It will support at least 199.5k context
Output tokens will be cheaper than GPT-4 Turbo(as of March 12, 2024)
It will be trending on Twitter the day of release. A name like "GPT", "OpenAI", "GPT-5" could all count. Checked from a clean account.
It will be able to translate a page of manga (JP image -> EN text)
It will be trained on reasoning traces from o1/o3 type models
It will be a model router.
It will use a new architecture meaningfully different from GPT-4
It will have a different logo color from green, black, or purple(based on resolution of https://manifold.markets/MiraBot/what-color-will-the-next-openai-llm?r=TWlyYUJvdA)
It will be ranked the highest model on the LMSys Chatbot Arena, and not overtaken by another model, 3 months after the release date.
OpenAI will claim it faster than GPT-4 Turbo
It will be able to pass jim's "agents benchmark"
Will be claimed to be AGI by the New York times up to 3 months after release.
There will be credible reporting that it is or was "excessively horny" either before or up to three months after release
Will be claimed to be AGI by OpenAI up to 3 months after release.
Will be claimed to be AGI by Wikipedia up to 3 months after release.
It will release in April 2024 or before
It will release between May and October 2024
It will release in November 2024
It will release in December 2024
Its knowledge cutoff will be in or before April 2024
Its knowledge cutoff will be any day in May 2024
Its knowledge cutoff will be any day in June 2024
It will support at least 499.5k context
It will support at least 999.5k context
It will release before GPT 4.5
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95
69
11
8
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1
0
0
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0
0
OptionProbability
The company will be valued at >= $1 Billion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)
The company will be valued at >= $10 Billion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)
At least one of the founders (Ilya Sutskever, Daniel Gross, Daniel Levy) will leave the company
Zvi will mention the company in a blog post
Zvi will mention the company in a blog post in 2025
The company will be valued at >= $100 Million according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)
The company will raise more than $1 billion of capital
Ilya will remain at the company continuously until EOY 2025, or until the company is acquired/ceases to exist
The official SSI X account will have more than 100k followers
The majority of their compute will come from Nvidia GPUs
I will believe the company should have invested more in AI Safety relative to Capabilities at EOY 2025
The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves self-play/synthetic data
Ilya will discuss the company on a podcast
The company will publish an assessment of the model’s dangerous capabilities (e.g. https://www.anthropic.com/news/frontier-threats-red-teaming-for-ai-safety)
Ilya will give a presentation on research done at the company
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^24 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
A majority of people believe that the company has been net-positive for the world according to a poll released at EOY 2025
The company will include at least one image on its website
The company will announce that their model scores >= 85 MMLU
The company will announce that their model scores >= 50 GPQA
The company will invite independent researchers/orgs to do evals on their models
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^25 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
The company will have at least 100 employees
The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves creating an automated AI researcher
The company will publish a Responsible Scaling Policy or similar document (e.g. OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework)
The company will announce research or models related to automated theorem proving (e.g. https://openai.com/index/generative-language-modeling-for-automated-theorem-proving/)
The company will be on track to build ASI by 2030, according to a Manifold poll conducted at EOY 2025
I will believe at EOY 2025 that the company has significantly advanced AI capabilities
The company will release a publicly available API for an AI model
The company will publish research related specifically to Sparse Autoencoders
The official SSI X account will have more than 200k followers
I will meet an employee of the company in person (currently true for OAI, Anthropic, xAI but not Deepmind)
The company will sell any products or services before EOY 2025
The company will release a new AI or AI safety benchmark (e.g. MMLU, GPQA)
The company will announce that they are on track to develop superintelligence by EOY 2030 or earlier
The company will publish research which involves collaboration with at least 5 members of another leading AI lab (e.g. OAI, GDM, Anthropic, xAI)
The company will have a group of more than 10 people working on Mechanistic Interpretability
The company will release a chatbot or any other AI system which accepts text input
The company will release a model scoring >= 1300 elo in the chatbot arena leaderboard
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^26 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
The company will open offices outside of the US and Israel
I will believe at EOY 2025 that the company has made significant progress in AI Alignment
I’ll work there (@mr_mino)
The company will announce a commitment to spend at least 20% of their compute on AI Safety/Alignment
The company will be listed as a “Frontier Lab” on https://ailabwatch.org/companies/
The company will be involved in a lawsuit
It will be reported that Nvidia is an investor in the company
The company’s model weights will be leaked/stolen
I will believe at EOY 2025 that the company has built an fully automated AI researcher
The company will make a GAN
The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves continuous chain of thought
It’s reported that the company’s model scores >= 90 on the ARC-AGI challenge (public or private version)
The company will open source its model weights or training algorithms
It will be reported that a model produced by the company will self-exfiltrate, or attempt to do so
The official SSI X account will have more than 1M followers
The company will be valued at >= $100 Billion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)
The phrase “Feel the AGI” or “Feel the ASI” will be published somewhere on the company website
The company will be reported to purchase at least $1 Billion in AI hardware, including cloud resources
Leopold Aschenbrenner will join the company
The company will advocate for a AI scaling pause or will endorse such a proposal (e.g. https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/)
The company will have a public contract with the US government to develop some technology
The company will publish research related to Singular Learning Theory
Major algorithmic secrets (e.g architecture, training methods) will be leaked/stolen
The company will publish research related to Neural Turing Machines
The company’s AI will be involved in an accident which causes at least $10 million in damages
The company will release a model scoring in the top 3 of the chatbot arena leaderboard
The company will publish a research paper written entirely by their AI system
The company release a video generation demo made by their AI system
I will believe at EOY 2025 the company has made significant advances in robotics or manufacturing
Their model will be able to play Chess, Shogi, or Go at least as well as the best human players
There will be a public protest or boycott directed against the company with more than 100 members
The company will be closer to building ASI than any other AI Lab at EOY 2025, as judged by a manifold poll
The company’s model will independently solve an open mathematical conjecture created before 2024
The company will publish a peer-reviewed paper with more than 1000 citations
The company will be acquired by another company
Elon musk will be an investor of the company
The company will release a model that reaches the #1 rank in the Chatbot Arena (including sharing the #1 rank with other models when their confidence intervals overlap)
The company will release an app available on iPhone or android
The company will change its name
The company will be merged with or acquired by another company
The company will announce that they have created Superintelligence
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^28 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
It will be reported that Sam Altman is an investor in the company
The company will build their own AI chips
Their model will be the first to get a gold medal or equivalent in IMO (International Mathematics Olympiad)
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^29 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
The company will be reported to build a data center with a peak power consumption of >= 1 GW
The company will publish at least 5 papers in peer reviewed journals
The company will declare bankruptcy
The company will be reported to acquire an Aluminum manufacturing plant for its long term power contract
The company will be publicly traded
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^27 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^30 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
I'll work there (@AndrewG)
The company will be reported to build a data center with a peak power consumption of >=10 GW
The company will be reported to build a data center with a peak power consumption of >=100 GW
The company will be valued at >= $1 Trillion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)
The company will be valued at >= $10 Trillion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)
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OptionVotes
YES
NO
117528
88845
OptionProbability
No | 1400 - 1500
No | 1500 - 1600
Other
Chatbot Arena will no longer exist
Yes | 1200 - 1300
Yes | 1300 - 1400
Yes | 1400 - 1500
No | 1200 - 1300
No | 1300 - 1400
47
43
4
2
1
1
1
1
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
10337
9667
OptionProbability
OpenAI
xAI
Meta
Anthropic
DeepSeek
Moonshot AI
Alibaba
Other
53
22
14
3
2
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
It will have been released in H2 2025
It is not called Claude N, for some integer N
It will have Audio(Input) modality
It can score Bronze or higher on IMO
It is called Claude 4
It will have Audio(Output) modality
It will have Video(Input) modality
It is called Claude 5
It will have Video(Output) modality
It will have been released in H1 2025
It is SOTA according to Chatbot Arena Leaderboard
It is called Claude 6
It is called Claude 3
90
72
60
55
48
39
36
24
15
8
5
3
1
OptionProbability
It will have Audio(Input) modality
It will have Audio(Output) modality
It can score Bronze or higher on IMO
It will have Video(Input) modality
It will have been released in H2 2025
It will have Video(Output) modality
Its main name is GPT-5
It is #1 in Elo according to Chatbot Arena Leaderboard
It has an anthropomorphic name
It will have been released in H1 2025
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27
1
OptionProbability
Transformer-based architecture
Developed by OpenAI
Over 1T parameters
Part of the GPT-N family of models (GPT-5, GPT-6, and variations)
It is #1 in Elo according to Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at any time
Part of the o1 family of models (o1, o2, etc. and variations)
Developed by Google Deepmind
Developed by a non-British and non-American company
Narrow domain of knowledge. ie Does not know random facts such as when Google was founded, or who won the 1960 presidential election.
Part of the AlphaProof family of models (AlphaProof N and variations)
Based on Symbolic AI (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Symbolic_artificial_intelligence)
Energy-based Model (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy-based_model)
90
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68
45
25
19
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9
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5
OptionProbability
Chris Hipkins
Other
Kieran McAnulty
David Parker
Megan Woods
Carmel Sepuloni
Arena Williams
Barbara Edmonds
Willie Jackson
Peeni Henare
Cushla Tangaere-Manuel
Grant Robertson
Ayesha Verrall
Damien O'Connor
Adrian Rurawhe
Ginny Anderson
Christ Hipkins
36
31
11
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
OptionProbability
Everglades
Strip club
Yacht / sailing
Military base
Theme park rides
Space launch pad
Concert / club / rave
A tiger / big cat private zoo or animal sanctuary
MMA fight arena
90
88
85
76
72
71
69
62
57
OptionProbability
Other
Tyran Stokes
Caleb Holt
Christian Collins
Miikka Muurinen
Brandon McCoy
Alijah Arenas
Jason Crowe Jr.
Jalen Montonati
Jordan Smith
Anthony Thompson
Darryn Peterson
Mikel Brown Jr.
12
10
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9
9
6
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6