Gulf states News

Israel and Iran go to war again

Iran strikes Israel with missiles

Iran strikes US bases

Iran strikes US bases and kills at least one American

The US launches airstrikes on three different days

Ayatollah Khamenei is removed from power

The Strait of Hormuz is mined or otherwise closed

The US launches airstrikes

Oil futures exceed 80.00 according to https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil

The US launches airstrikes on March 7 (UTC)

The Strait of Hormuz is mined

Any state bordering the Persian Gulf launches an attack on Iran

Oil futures exceed 100.00 according to https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil

Significant protests are reported in February and March

US ground troops enter Iran

The rial loses 1/3 the value it had on January 1, 2026 (unofficially / on the black market)

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is killed

US military casualties exceed 100 by May 1, 2026

Mojtaba Khamenei named Supreme Leader by March 31, 2026

Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major facilities causing ≥5% production/export disruption) on energy infrastructure in ≥1 Gulf Cooperation Council state by June 30, 2026.

At least one instance of reported military activity (strike, missile launch, drone attack, or clash) involving US, Israeli, or Iranian forces or proxies occurs each day of March 2026 (UTC), per Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or ISW.

US or Israel strikes an Iranian power plant by May 1, 2026 (UTC)

Mojtaba Khamenei dies by December 31, 2026

US ground troops are present on Kharg Island by April 30, 2026 (UTC)

US ground troops enter Iran by May 1, 2026

Iran kinetically strikes the territory of any NATO member other than the US, excluding military bases, after March 22, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT by December 31, 2026, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet.

Mojtaba Khamenei is confirmed dead by the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2026

Iran takes at least one non-Iranian citizen hostage, confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet before January 1, 2027

Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium (approx. 440kg at 60% or higher purity) is reported missing by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, IAEA, or equivalent major international outlet by June 30, 2026

Brent crude closes above $100/bbl on more calendar days than below from March 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026

US launches a ground operation to seize highly enriched uranium from Fordow or another underground Iranian nuclear site before January 1, 2027, but fails to seize or destroy Iran's entire HEU stockpile per IAEA reports.

The US-Iran war is ongoing as of December 31, 2026

Iran (directly or via proxies) inflicts widespread damage (to ≥3 major desalination plants causing ≥5% national water supply disruption) on desalination infrastructure in Israel or ≥1 GCC state by December 31, 2026

US Congress passes a formal declaration of war on Iran or its proxies before January 1, 2027, reported by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major outlet.

Saudi Arabia, Iraq, or Turkey deploys combat troops or conducts airstrikes against Iranian forces by June 1, 2026

US military casualties exceed 500 by December 31, 2026

US attacks Kharg Island's oil terminals by March 31, 2026 (UTC)

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reaches at least 80% of pre-conflict (Jan-Feb 2026) average daily levels by April 15, 2026 (UTC), per MarineTraffic, Reuters, or equivalent AIS data.

Iran inflicts widespread damage on US tech firm (e.g. Amazon, Microsoft) outposts or data centers in the Middle East by May 1, 2026

Reza Pahlavi is confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet to have entered Iran by December 31, 2026

Iranian regime (Islamic Republic government) collapses by July 1, 2026, via significant security force defections or opposition control of Tehran.

FBI or DHS publicly attributes a terrorist attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) causing 10+ deaths or equivalent major damage to Iran or Iran-backed groups (IRGC, Hezbollah, Houthis) by December 31, 2026

More than 100 US citizens die in a single attack by Iran or its proxies (excluding lone wolves without direct support), confirmed by Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or equivalent major international outlet, by December 31, 2026

US national average regular gasoline price exceeds $5/gallon by June 1, 2026

The FCC revokes a US broadcast station's license explicitly citing its coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026

Iran launches a drone attack on U.S. soil (50 states + DC + territories) by December 31, 2026

The US administration (via DOJ indictment or equivalent formal charge) indicts a US-based journalist or news organization with treason explicitly citing their coverage of the US-Iran war by July 1, 2026

US military fatalities exceed 100 by May 1, 2026

Iran produces a functional nuclear weapon using primarily indigenous capabilities before January 1, 2027

US activates military draft by December 31, 2026

Brent crude's official daily settlement price exceeds $200/bbl before April 1, 2026

US or Israel detonates a nuclear weapon targeting Iran in 2026

Strikes go beyond March 30th

15-30 days (strikes end by March 30)

2-3 days (strikes end by March 3)

4-7 days (strikes end by March 7)

8-14 days (strikes end by March 14)

NO

NO

4 +

3

0–1

NO

YES

YES

YES

Louisiana (TBD)

Alabama (Mobile)

Mississippi (TBD)

Somaliland recognised by less than 30 UN members in 2030 / China doesn't recognise

Somaliland recognised by more than 29 and less than 150 UN members in 2030 / China doesn't recognise

Somaliland recognised by more than 149 UN members in 2030 / China doesn't recognise