Hastings News

Who will be the next CEO of OpenAI, after Sam Altman?

Nov 22, 9:50 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

262614

OptionProbability

Other

[None - Position will cease to exist]

Mira Murati

Elon Musk

Sam Altman

Greg Brockman

Bret Taylor

Larry Summers

Adam D'Angelo

Andrej Karpathy

Eric Schmidt

Paul Graham

Peter Thiel

Wojciech Zaremba

Ben Horowitz

Jessica Livingston

Marc Benioff

Sheryl Sandberg

Tim Cook

John Doerr

Reed Hastings

Fei Fei Lee

Alexander Wang

George Hotz

Brad Lightcap

Bob Mcgrew

Peter Welinder

Jason Kwon

Mark Chen

Helen Toner

Ilya Sutskever

Emmett Shear

Dario Amodei

Satya Nadela

Jeff Bezos

Demis Hassabis

Robin Li

Clément Delangue

Lila Ibrahim

Alex Karp

Reid Hoffman

Raquel Urtasun

Marc Andreessen

Aidan Gomez

Sandra Rivera

Gary Marcus

Jaime Teevan

Sundar Pichai

Jack Clark

Anna Makanju

Shane Legg

Andrew Ng

Pushmeet Kohli

Yann LeCun

Mark Zuckerberg

Yoshua Bengio

Hinton

Marissa Mayer

Spencer Rascoff

Garry Tan

What happened during the Jeju Air flight 2216 crash?

Dec 30, 12:37 PMJan 7, 4:59 AM

152005

OptionProbability

Both engines ingested birds

The spoilers were not working

Electrical failure compromised multiple redundant systems

The aircraft didn’t slow down in the runway because it was trying to take off again

Hydraulic failure compromised multiple redundant systems

The landing gear was not working

The flaps were not working

The pilot shut down the wrong engine

Landing was justifiably rushed due to fire or unbreathable air in the cabin

Does the asteroid polyhymnia contain elements missing from the periodic table?

Oct 25, 2:12 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

4.55%chance

261669

OptionVotes

YES

1521

941

Will OpenAI get unrestricted access to >60% of the work done by METR baseliners?

Jan 20, 3:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.16%chance

4550

OptionVotes

YES

1452

689

Will we find tree search in a vanilla transformer trained on chess games by 2026?

Jan 7, 1:04 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

19.76%chance

8154

OptionVotes

YES

382

246

Will Trump be diagnozed with Alzheimers disease by 2028?

Jan 22, 4:58 PMJan 30, 4:59 AM

21.97%chance

7152

OptionVotes

YES

208

122

How many times will Electron launch in 2025?

Dec 23, 7:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

275

OptionProbability

<= 18

<= 16

<= 14

<= 10

<= 12

<= 8

Will AIs who aren't trained on or exposed to humans argue about qualia by 2050?

Sep 13, 9:17 PMSep 21, 3:59 AM

30.62%chance

448

OptionVotes

YES

150

Will we get another high quality data point on Ball Lightning by 2030?

Oct 4, 6:15 PMOct 8, 3:59 AM

69.19%chance

442

OptionVotes

YES

150

Will the World Championship Punkin Chunkin return to Delaware by 2030?

Nov 18, 2:23 AMNov 25, 4:59 AM

30.77%chance

125

OptionVotes

YES

Computer Science/AI Academics among Manifold users (permanent)

May 2, 1:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

220

OptionProbability

Other

@HastingsGreer

Hastings Greer

Qualia: GPTs vs characters in dreams. Resolves when there is consensus on how to test for qualia (likely never haha)

Feb 28, 11:23 AMMar 4, 4:59 AM

211

OptionProbability

Neither Large GPTs nor characters in dreams have qualia

Large GPTs have qualia, characters in dreams have qualia

Large GPTs lack qualia, characters in dreams have qualia

Large GPTs have qualia, characters in dreams lack qualia

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Prediction markets for Hastings

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Prediction markets for Hastings

Who will be the next CEO of OpenAI, after Sam Altman?

What happened during the Jeju Air flight 2216 crash?

Does the asteroid polyhymnia contain elements missing from the periodic table?

Will OpenAI get unrestricted access to >60% of the work done by METR baseliners?

Will we find tree search in a vanilla transformer trained on chess games by 2026?

Will Trump be diagnozed with Alzheimers disease by 2028?

How many times will Electron launch in 2025?

Will AIs who aren't trained on or exposed to humans argue about qualia by 2050?

Will we get another high quality data point on Ball Lightning by 2030?

Will the World Championship Punkin Chunkin return to Delaware by 2030?

Computer Science/AI Academics among Manifold users (permanent)

Qualia: GPTs vs characters in dreams. Resolves when there is consensus on how to test for qualia (likely never haha)

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