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Prediction markets for High Court

Will SCOTUS strike down the preemptive pardons if it considers the case?

Jan 20, 2:01 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

20%chance

3814920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18124

6187

Will the proposed 5,000$ per child tax credit be signed into law before November 7 2028?

Aug 18, 2:06 PMDec 2, 6:59 AM

19.12%chance

1211085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18565

6494

Post-mortem revelations: will damning new evidence be revealed in the OJ Simpson case?

Apr 11, 3:36 PMApr 11, 6:59 AM

3.01%chance

185481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6380

416

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

55.66%chance

394057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

932

If asked, will the German Constitutional Court decide to ban the AfD?

Jan 20, 9:46 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30.92%chance

423097

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1094

692

New Zealand Labour forms a government in 2026 without requiring support from Te Pāti Māori

Mar 21, 5:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.62%chance

5854

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1750

571

Will an AI hold a high national office in the United States before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 19, 4:38 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3.97%chance

6272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

440

121

How many deputies will Partido Missão elect to Brazil's Chamber of Deputies in the 2026 general election?

Nov 24, 6:11 PMOct 5, 11:59 PM

4126

OptionProbability

0-4 deputies

5-8 deputies

9-12 deputies

13+ deputies

72

15

8

6

Trump vs the media: Which lawsuits will succeed?

Dec 27, 1:11 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

5122

OptionProbability

CBS case, over 60 Minutes Harris interview

Trump defamation suit against NYT (filed September 2025)

Des Moines Register case, over Ann Selzer poll

Simon & Schuster case, over Bob Woodward book

100

50

11

0

When will conscripted Ukrainians be able to demobilize?

Mar 18, 11:06 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

7119

OptionProbability

Until EOY 2027

Until EOY 2028

Until EOY 2026

Until EOY 2025

68

66

64

0

Italy judicial reform: Will the parliamentary list for lay members be at least 3x the seats to fill?

Mar 12, 11:30 AMDec 31, 12:28 PM

49.97%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1001

999

Italy judicial reform: Will a High Disciplinary Court ruling be challenged at the ECHR or Corte Costituzionale by 2032?

Mar 12, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.57%chance

235

OptionVotes

NO

YES

135

74

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