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Top stories

France’s Highest Court Annuls 2013 Chemical Attacks Arrest Warrant for Former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad Citing Personal Immunity

France’s Highest Court Annuls 2013 Chemical Attacks Arrest Warrant for Former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad Citing Personal Immunity

Authors

17

9 days ago

Prediction markets for Homs

Will Tesla offer autonomous vehicle delivery to customers' homes in 2025?

Apr 15, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

7915810

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

Will SF homelessness be solved by 2040?

Jun 16, 5:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25%chance

5511099

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

890

Will a utility suggest customers leave their home AC on full-blast during the day because of net-negative demand by '26?

Jan 27, 2:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.68%chance

505971

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3000

768

Will homosexuality be legal in Dubai in 2035 (partially or fully)?

Jun 24, 5:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 PM

48.64%chance

483403

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1028

973

In what state will the Kansas City Chiefs play a majority of their home games in the 2031 NFL season?

Jul 24, 2:54 AMJan 26, 5:59 AM

31771

OptionProbability

Missouri

Kansas

Other

70

28

2

Will an active male 1. Bundesliga player come out as homosexual / bi / queer before 2030?

May 31, 11:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

81.95%chance

171560

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2131

469

Will homicides return to pre-BLM levels by 2030?

Sep 29, 5:25 PMApr 1, 4:59 AM

58.36%chance

15915

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1218

801

Will I have a reliable automated home cleaner by 2028?

Sep 29, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

46.35%chance

25776

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1162

753

During the Trump presidency, will median home prices in Washington DC dip below 500k?

Nov 9, 12:52 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

41.59%chance

9585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1185

844

Will Homosexual couples have the same rights as Heterosexual couples worldwide by 2050?

May 5, 4:38 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7.39%chance

13556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1238

953

A startup in a programming language derived from homotopy type theory raises $10M by 2030

May 16, 6:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24.58%chance

17528

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1282

880

Where will the Athletics MLB team play their home games in 2028?

Jun 22, 11:13 PMApr 1, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Las Vegas (including Paradise)

Sacramento (including West Sacramento)

Somewhere within the San Francisco Bay Area

Somewhere else in California

Somewhere else outside California

20

20

20

20

20

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