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Horn of Africa News
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Somalia
War
Politics
Somalia Says Awdheegle Raid Kills Over 100 Al-Shabaab Fighters
Authors
3
10 months ago
Prediction markets for Horn of Africa
Prediction markets for Horn of Africa
How many UN members will recognize Somaliland at the end of 2026?
Dec 30, 1:08 AM
Jan 1, 11:59 PM
8
472
Option
Probability
0–1
2
3
4 +
57
30
7
6
Will armed conflict break out between Ethiopia and Eritrea by December 31, 2026?
Jan 21, 6:19 PM
Dec 30, 11:59 PM
17.73%
chance
6
338
Option
Votes
YES
NO
215
46
Will a crossing of the Bab-el-Mandeb, between Yemen and Djibouti or Eritrea, have started construction by 2040?
Jul 4, 8:28 AM
Jan 1, 3:59 PM
22.1%
chance
15
338
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1079
956
Will there be sustained armed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea by end of December 31, 2026?
Apr 19, 8:53 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
44.53%
chance
7
99
Option
Votes
YES
NO
112
90
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