Hospital São João News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

New James Bond actor is presented

"The New Norm" ends

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

A new supreme court justice appointed

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

USA experiences a recession.

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

Approval < 35%

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

trump gets hospitalized

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Fair elections in 2028

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

Vances have another kid

US national bitcoin reserve created

The US leaves the World Health Organization

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

Government shutdown

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

A major war in Asia occurs

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

New

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

Trump announces he is tired of winning

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

Joe Biden dies

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

A national ban on gender-affirming care

The department of education gets desolved

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Dow rises above 65,000

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Approval < 25%

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Tesla

Another pandemic

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Repeal obamacare

Trump says a racial slur

Trump visits Africa

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

54 or more Republican senate seats

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

55 or more Republican senate seats

JD Vance elected President

Trump runs for a third term

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Laura Loomer gets any government role

Record level unemployment

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Trump gets covid (again)

Constitutional Amendment

BTC falls below $38,000

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

New national park created

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Trump and Obama shake hands

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Starship lands on Mars

10% fewer government agencies

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump dies

Trump gets shot

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump bans abortion nationwide

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

"covfefe" posted again

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

US Invasion of any North/South American country

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

south park is canceled/discontinued

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

John Bolton indicted

Trump extends his term past 4 years

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

American Manned Lunar Landing

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

New US national anthem

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Cannabis is federally legalized

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Trump and Melania divorce

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump is assassinated

Constitutional Amendment

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump loses the fake tan

A hurricane will be nuked

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

Jimmy Carter dies

In the US

After his presidency

Before we get ASI

Before we get AGI

Mar-a-Lago

In a hospital

In Florida

Surrounded by his friends and loved ones

Before 2030

While in office

After 2035

On an airplane

During WW3

In front of a camera

On a Monday

On a Sunday

On a Tuesday

On a Wednesday

On a Thursday

On a Friday

On a Saturday

2026

The White House

While doing a speech

2028

2029

2031

2033

2034

2035

2027

2030

2032

2025

On a gold toilet

Getting depressed

Starting a new hobby

Getting a certification/degree

Breaking a personal record/achievement

Meeting a celebrity

Recovering from depression

Having sex

Going on 3 dates

Attending a funeral

eat a banana

Eating a shrimp

eat meat of any bird

Getting vaccinated

Winning a prize/money/giveaway

Getting a sincere compliment from a stranger on the street

Being happy

Reading 3 books

Stopping with therapy

Having sex in a different country

Eating a potato chip

Use a contraceptive (condom, pill, etc)

Getting a new job

Crying at the cinema

Having sex with 3 different people

Losing my mana streak

Going on a holiday alone

Getting a new house

Finding money on the street

Getting a new car

Running an official running event

Breaking the screen of my smartphone

Using LSD with someone who hasn't done it before

Either donating more to charity, or donating to a more cost effective charity, than last year

Trying 3 new recreational drugs

Losing or gaining weight (more than 5kg, now 72.8kg)

Doing drugs with my mother

Receiving a text message or call from someone who I haven't spoken in 3+ years

Learning a new language

Joining a sports team/club

Making a viral social media post

Joining a new or other political party

Getting a new girlfriend

Getting drinks with my first ex-girlfriend

Losing another family member

Crashing in a 2nd bicycle accident

Getting a game console

Being mistaken for someone famous

Getting Covid-19

Starting a side business

Winning a competition/award

Getting a STD

Starting a blog/substack/podcast

Getting a new nickname at my future job

Getting hearing aids

Moving to a different city/country

Experiencing a natural disaster

Attending an Ayahuasca ceremony

Getting shit on by a bird

Hospitalized (24H+)

Getting someone pregnant

Attending a wedding

Getting a medical operation

Getting back with my ex

Developing a chronic health condition

Experiencing war

Getting a new pet

Attending a baby shower

Getting married/engaged

Having more than 10K streams on an AI song I made

Deciding to get an abortion

Tell someone to commit suicide on Manifold (resolves YES)

Have sex with a cisgender person

Get a job

Go 14 days without making a bet on Manifold

Be hospitalized

Willfully do a recreational drug other than caffeine, alcohol, marijuana, or nicotine

Accidentally break my Nintendo Switch 2 (must be my fault; does not include manufacturing defects, inevitable battery degradation, etc)

Fail to vote in an American election that I'm eligible to vote in

Leave the USA

Get a STD (and be aware of it)

Willfully eat an animal product (excluding human and excluding lab-grown meat)

Vote for a Republican in a general election (excluding nonpartisan and unopposed elections)

YES

NO

Large Tech company announces layoffs

Pope Francis dies

New Pope

Tesla catches fire reported by news or https://www.tesla-fire.com/

Three or more teslas catch fire as reported by the Tesla-fire website (or multiple mainstream news)

Nintendo Direct airs

bitcoin reaches a new all time high

joseph anderson releases his long awaited witcher 3 video

new iphone releases

elon musk has another child

Earthquake over 8.0 magnitude

A famous global brand undergoes a rebranding

Dutch coalition resigns

gpt 5 released

hollow knight silksong releases

Trump or Biden are hospitalized for any period of time

Skate 4 Release

6 or more people die in a single shooting incident in the united states

Taylor Swift drops a new album (not a Taylor’s Version of an older album actually majority new tracks)

spacex makes >=150 launches in 1 year, all in 2025

White House goes under lockdown for any period of time

New CEO of Twitter

any country starts a new invasion of another country

at least one equipment caused death at a theme park in the USA due to ride failure, negligence, or other similar cause (not: pool drowning, natural disasters , medical, or forced violence)

MLB World Series won by the National League team

MLB World Series won by the American League team

official trailer releases for S&box (new facepunch / garry mod game)

there is a need to replace an existing supreme court justice (dies/retires/etc) or they add another justice

Assassination of an African head of state

Twitter releases peer to peer payment system, for at least all premium users if not everyone

Skibidi Toilet ends their original series

reddit r/Worldnews unpins the Russia/Ukraine thread

a twitter account besides elon musk reaches 200M followers

Imu face reveal in One Piece

Starliner program terminated

Israel : Hamas Ceasefire

Kanye West is arrested or admitted to a mental hospital

Taylor Swift becomes engaged to be married (to anyone)

Assassination of a North American or South American head of state

Taylor Swift breaks up with Kelce

grimace shake returns at mcdonalds in usa

Aberdeen Football Club are top of the Scottish Premiership table

Trump threatens to deport Musk

Donald Trump diagnosed with COVID-19

chris (strutheo) leaves Manifold and this market is resolved by the @mods

Russia : Ukraine ceasefire

Joe Biden dies

Bitcoin hits $200k USD

23andMe goes private

Alan's Conservative Countdown to AGI reaches 100%

H5N1 pandemic declared

tiktok USA company sale is signed and finalized

The same city wins at least two of the Super Bowl, NBA Finals, Stanley Cup, and World Series

USA government shutdown

nuclear detonation occurs (can be a test)

commercial airline hijacking

destiny talks to joe rogan

Assassination of a European or Asian head of state

Bitcoin closes higher on Festivus (Dec. 23, 2025) than it closed on Festivus (Dec. 23, 2024) [EST] ***

Total funding for the Effective Altruism movement grows >25% compared to 2023

Donald Trump dies

Someone other than Netanyahu becomes prime minister of Israel

MrBeast hits 500 Million subscribers

North Korea and South Korea conflict reignites into a hot war, and results in at least one death

AI wipes out humanity

Vivek Ramaswamy comes out as LGBTQ

bitcoin drops down and reaches 30k or less

Musk : Zuckerberg fight actually happens

Vladimir Putin dies

Chat GPT 6 releases

Spider Man beyond the Spiderverse releases after the delay from March 2024

LK99 or another room temperature superconductor causes another wave of mainstream global news hype

linda yaccarino still ceo of twitter at end of year

If they take a stance before 2027, Rootclaim/Saar will give a >90% probability that the Hospital was used for "command and control activities"

Rootclaim/Saar will take a probabalistic stance on Al-Shifa Hospital before 2027

Rootclaim/Saar will take a probabilistic stance on Al-Shifa Hospital before 2026

If they take a stance before 2027, Rootclaim/Saar will give a <10% probability that the Hospital was used for "command and control activities"

If they take a stance before 2027, Rootclaim/Saar will give a >50% but <90% probability that the Hospital was used for "command and control activities"

If they take a stance before 2027, Rootclaim/Saar will give a <50% but >10% probability that the Hospital was used for "command and control activities"

Wilful killing

Destroying or seizing the enemy's property unless such destruction or seizure be imperatively demanded by the necessities of war;

Wilfully causing great suffering, or serious injury to body or health;

Killing or wounding treacherously individuals belonging to the hostile nation or army;

Intentionally launching an attack in the knowledge that such attack will cause incidental loss of life or injury to civilians or damage to civilian objects or widespread, long-term and severe damage to the natural environment which would...

Unlawful deportation or transfer or unlawful confinement;

Utilizing the presence of a civilian or other protected person to render certain points, areas or military forces immune from military operations;

Employing weapons, projectiles and material and methods of warfare which are of a nature to cause superfluous injury or unnecessary suffering or which are inherently indiscriminate in violation of the international law of armed conflict...

Employing bullets which expand or flatten easily in the human body, such as bullets with a hard envelope which does not entirely cover the core or is pierced with incisions;

Extensive destruction and appropriation of property, not justified by military necessity and carried out unlawfully and wantonly;

Intentionally directing attacks against personnel, installations, material, units or vehicles involved in a humanitarian assistance or peacekeeping mission in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations, ...

Compelling the nationals of the hostile party to take part in the operations of war directed against their own country, even if they were in the belligerent's service before the commencement of the war;

Committing outrages upon personal dignity, in particular humiliating and degrading treatment;

Employing poison or poisoned weapons;

Intentionally directing attacks against the civilian population as such or against individual civilians not taking direct part in hostilities;

Wilfully depriving a prisoner of war or other protected person of the rights of fair and regular trial;

Taking of hostages.

Intentionally directing attacks against civilian objects, that is, objects which are not military objectives;

Killing or wounding a combatant who, having laid down his arms or having no longer means of defence, has surrendered at discretion;

Pillaging a town or place, even when taken by assault;

Torture or inhuman treatment, including biological experiments;

Intentionally directing attacks against buildings dedicated to religion, education, art, science or charitable purposes, historic monuments, hospitals and places where the sick and wounded are collected, provided they are not military...

Employing asphyxiating, poisonous or other gases, and all analogous liquids, materials or devices;

Declaring that no quarter will be given;

Making improper use of a flag of truce, of the flag or of the military insignia and uniform of the enemy or of the United Nations, as well as of the distinctive emblems of the Geneva Conventions, resulting in death or serious personal...

Compelling a prisoner of war or other protected person to serve in the forces of a hostile Power;

Declaring abolished, suspended or inadmissible in a court of law the rights and actions of the nationals of the hostile party;

The transfer, directly or indirectly, by the Occupying Power of parts of its own civilian population into the territory it occupies, or the deportation or transfer of all or parts of the population of the occupied territory within or ...

Subjecting persons who are in the power of an adverse party to physical mutilation or to medical or scientific experiments of any kind which are neither justified by the medical, dental or hospital treatment of the person concerned nor ...

Attacking or bombarding, by whatever means, towns, villages, dwellings or buildings which are undefended and which are not military objectives;

Intentionally directing attacks against buildings, material, medical units and transport, and personnel using the distinctive emblems of the Geneva Conventions in conformity with international law;

Intentionally using starvation of civilians as a method of warfare by depriving them of objects indispensable to their survival, including wilfully impeding relief supplies as provided for under the Geneva Conventions;

Committing rape, sexual slavery, enforced prostitution, forced pregnancy, as defined in article 7, paragraph 2 (f), enforced sterilization, or any other form of sexual violence also constituting a grave breach of the Geneva Conventions;

S.P.E.W (Society for the Promotion of Elfish Welfare) is featured

Ends within 10 years of release of first episode

The same actors play school-age Harry, Ron, and Hermione throughout

Harry Potters most used (spoken) spell is "Expelliarmus"

Covers all 7 books (i.e. not cancelled/ended early)

Is 7 seasons

Colin Creevey is in more than 2 seasons

Harry wears a pointy wizard hat in more than 1 season

Ends within 9 years of release of first episode

St Mungo's Hospital is shown

Blast-ended skrewt is shown

An actor comes out as trans before 2050

A child actor comes out as trans before 2050

Every season is 10 episodes or fewer

Muggle Studies class is ever shown

The same actor plays Dumbledore throughout (barring flashbacks/flashforwards with age differences)

Wins at least 1 Primetime Emmy

Wins at least 1 Primetime Emmy in an acting category

There's an episode without Harry on screen at all (barring recap, intro, outro, credits, sneak peeks, etc.)

Ends within 8 years of release of first episode

A child actor playing a "relevant" character comes out as trans before 2050 (see list)

Ends within 7 years of release of first episode

Arithmancy class is ever shown

Most trainee doctors return to work at public hospitals by September 2025

It is announced that the medical school quota will be restored to pre-crisis level (3k/year) by EoY 2024

Financial Activities

Manufacturing

Mining and Logging

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

Information

Professional and Business Services

Private Education and Health Services

Leisure and Hospitality

Construction