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Prediction markets for Hunt

Greatest Mathematician of all time

Aug 11, 11:37 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

18426206

OptionProbability

Gauss

Archimedes

Euler

Other

Alexander Grothendieck

Euclid (of Geometry)

Erdos (on amphetamines)

Von Neumann

Ramanujan

Newton

Kurt Gödel

David Hilbert

Augustin-Louis Cauchy

Pythagoras

Galois (died at 20 fighting for a girl he loved)

Alonzo Chuch (lambda calculus)

Matt Damon (of Good Will Hunting)

Poincare

Finkelstein (of the levi finkelstein conjecture)

Mandelbrot (The B in Benoit B Mandelbrot is Benoit B Mandelbrot)

Trick question; there are no mathematicians.

Idk, your mom seemed pretty good at multiplying last night

sixtynine, you filthy casuals

David A. Cox (Cox-Zucker machine)

The solver of the Riemann Hypothesis

Ludwig Wittgenstein

John Conway (group theory, among others)

the unknown ancient egyptian who invented zero

Descartes

Leibniz

Bourbaki

Laplace

@Mira

Georg Cantor

Frank Ramsey

Fermat

Emmy Noether

Ada Lovelace

.

p

Terry Tao

DottedCalculator

GPT8

Riemann

Claude Shannon

God

Alan Turing

Grigori Perelman

Olga Ladyzhenskaya

Weyl, Weyl

John Gabriel

Michael Atiyah

49

20

10

6

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will a team consisting primarily of ML models complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?

Jan 2, 7:09 AMJan 29, 7:59 AM

37.29%chance

2515523

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

437

Will LLMs be banned at the 2026 MIT Mystery Hunt?

Nov 12, 9:48 PMJan 17, 7:59 AM

18.11%chance

255053

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1068

968

When will a Mission: Impossible film be released without Tom Cruise as Ethan Hunt?

Jan 27, 12:36 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

292552

OptionProbability

By 2040

By 2035

By 2030

By 2025

86

60

22

1

Will "How it All Went Down: The Puzzle Hunt that to..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 3, 1:32 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10%chance

122081

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1389

948

Will Lord of the rings: The Hunt for Gollum (2026) have ≥7.5 on IMDB 30 days after US release?

May 10, 5:22 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

29.97%chance

8124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

Will Jose Luis Ricon and duck_master (@MIT) go duck hunting by EOY 2029?

Jul 28, 3:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.84%chance

2110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

208

48

Will monaduck69 OR bmorphisn and duck_master go 🦆 hunting together

Aug 2, 4:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.01%chance

275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

58

What will be the order the last commercial hunting countries of baleen whales stop?

Sep 30, 2:25 AMJan 6, 4:59 AM

359

OptionProbability

Norway, Iceland , japan

Iceland, Norway , japan

Norway, japan, Iceland

Iceland, japan, Norway

Japan, Iceland , Norway

Japan, Norway , Iceland

26

24

14

13

12

12

Will Mission Impossible do a James Bond on their Ethan Hunt Character

Jan 27, 12:44 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

36.44%chance

329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

84

59

Will Theo Jaffee and Cremieux both go duck hunting together by EOY 2029?

Jul 28, 3:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Can you hunt deer using anthropic reasoning?

Sep 24, 2:03 AM

140

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