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Prediction markets for In

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.91%chance

420611302743

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29339

16511

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

77.49%chance

25612232999

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10617

2119

Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?

Aug 19, 11:47 PMFeb 19, 4:59 AM

17671943374

OptionProbability

Gavin Newsom

Other

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Pete Buttigieg

Josh Shapiro

Jon Ossoff

Kamala Harris

J.B. Pritzker

Andy Beshear

Gretchen Whitmer

Mark Kelly

Wes Moore

Ruben Gallego

Michelle Obama

Amy Klobuchar

Raphael Warnock

Cory Booker

Kathy Hochul

Ro Khanna

Mark Cuban

Jamie Raskin

Brian Schatz

Jon Stewart

Gina Raimondo

None

John Fetterman

Hillary Clinton

Joe Biden

Jeff Jackson

Jared Polis

Mitch Landrieu

Roy Cooper

Dianne Feinstein

Jimmy Carter

Tim Walz

Chuck Schumer

Tim Kaine

Bernie Sanders

Tammy Duckworth

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Elizabeth Warren

Michael Bloomberg

Dwayne Johnson

[Duplicate - Invalid]

Hakeem Jeffries

Andrew Yang

Steven Kenneth "Destiny" Bonnell II

Dean Phillips

Bob Ferguson

Jay Inslee

Anthony Blinken

Susan Rice

Scott Wiener

Donald Trump

Sam Altman

Jeff Merkley

Merrick Garland

Taylor Swift

Tammy Baldwin

Katie Porter

Phil Murphy

Cenk Uygur

Joe Manchin

Sherrod Brown

Chris Murphy

John Bel Edwards

Clark Duke

Stacey Abrams

Nina Turner

john smith

Duplicate ignore

Ron Desantis

Beto O'Rourke

Vermin Supreme

Hunter Biden

Invalid answer

John Jacob

Alex Jones

Bob Roberston the IV

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Stephen A Smith

30

15

9

5

5

5

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity]

Nov 18, 4:29 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

4.96%chance

3451002860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

437854

22869

China's rebar failure rate below 20% in 2025 national quality check?

Nov 26, 6:18 AMJul 29, 10:59 PM

95.69%chance

103648842

OptionVotes

NO

YES

471246

21248

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?

Jun 11, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.45%chance

411581870

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15125

6621

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51%chance

559505052

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3523

1103

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

48.77%chance

502415333

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3100

2051

Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?

Jun 10, 7:37 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

63.22%chance

253131827

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1312

763

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

Sep 24, 9:28 AMOct 3, 2:59 PM

46.54%chance

5521313

OptionVotes

YES

NO

52335

46384

Spain's population end of 2026? [in MM]

Jan 11, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.75%chance

92186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5113

4977

Peggy Flanagan and Graham Platner both elected senators in November 2026?

Feb 5, 12:33 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

45%chance

5763

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1085

884

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