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Prediction markets for In

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.91%chance

449012301607

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25361

18164

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

87.68%chance

26902448745

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14273

1378

Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?

Aug 19, 11:47 PMFeb 19, 4:59 AM

18502141108

OptionProbability

Gavin Newsom

Other

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Jon Ossoff

Kamala Harris

Pete Buttigieg

Josh Shapiro

Andy Beshear

Gretchen Whitmer

J.B. Pritzker

Mark Kelly

Ro Khanna

Michelle Obama

Raphael Warnock

Wes Moore

Jon Stewart

Hunter Biden

Ruben Gallego

None

John Fetterman

Hillary Clinton

Joe Biden

Jeff Jackson

Jared Polis

Amy Klobuchar

Cory Booker

Mitch Landrieu

Roy Cooper

Dianne Feinstein

Jimmy Carter

Tim Walz

Chuck Schumer

Tim Kaine

Bernie Sanders

Tammy Duckworth

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Elizabeth Warren

Michael Bloomberg

Dwayne Johnson

[Duplicate - Invalid]

Hakeem Jeffries

Andrew Yang

Steven Kenneth "Destiny" Bonnell II

Dean Phillips

Bob Ferguson

Jay Inslee

Kathy Hochul

Anthony Blinken

Susan Rice

Scott Wiener

Donald Trump

Sam Altman

Jeff Merkley

Merrick Garland

Taylor Swift

Tammy Baldwin

Katie Porter

Phil Murphy

Cenk Uygur

Mark Cuban

Jamie Raskin

Joe Manchin

Sherrod Brown

Chris Murphy

Brian Schatz

John Bel Edwards

Clark Duke

Stacey Abrams

Nina Turner

john smith

Duplicate ignore

Gina Raimondo

Ron Desantis

Beto O'Rourke

Vermin Supreme

Invalid answer

John Jacob

Alex Jones

Bob Roberston the IV

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Stephen A Smith

23

14

12

12

7

5

5

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity]

Nov 18, 4:29 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

3.33%chance

4811516179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

539538

18559

Tesla has more fully autonomous rides than Waymo in 2026?

Jun 11, 5:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.65%chance

540866997

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30627

3269

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.59%chance

324660438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2872

2115

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.11%chance

619657288

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5625

4094

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

Mar 13, 3:40 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

46%chance

346291594

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5852

4245

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

61.17%chance

354261974

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1962

1364

Which political party wins the US presidency in 2028?

Nov 8, 6:22 AMNov 10, 7:59 AM

194149455

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other Party

60

39

1

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

Sep 24, 9:28 AMOct 3, 2:59 PM

54.68%chance

7864143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

55799

45083

Regime change in Cuba by 2030?

Jan 3, 8:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.56%chance

15528098

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1444

693

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