Incline News

Will Tesla launch level 4 robotaxis this summer?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

20.68%chance

19838043

OptionVotes

YES

1493

817

If Eliezer Yudkowsky tried diet and exercise for 6 months, would he lose a reasonable amount of weight?

Nov 14, 8:15 AMNov 21, 10:59 PM

83.19%chance

285530

OptionVotes

YES

350

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

YES

1629

626

Will a Republican win the US presidential election in 2024?/Will a Republican win the US presidential election in 2028?

Sep 7, 2:29 AMNov 22, 7:59 AM

171540

OptionProbability

A Republican wins in 2024 and a Republican wins in 2028

A Republican wins in 2024 and a Republican does not win in 2028

A Republican loses in 2024 and a Republican wins in 2028

A Republican loses in 2024 and a Republican loses in 2028

Will a four-legged robot run faster than a cheetah over a long distance outdoors before 2035?

Aug 7, 7:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

86.58%chance

271461

OptionVotes

YES

1513

872

When will Russia have military encounter with Finland?

May 20, 9:42 AMFeb 28, 10:17 AM

171268

OptionProbability

By 2030

Not before 2030

By 2029

By 2028

By 2027

By 2026

Will a Manifold user donate their kidney to me?

Oct 29, 1:49 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

5.78%chance

12752

OptionVotes

YES

1244

951

Will Zvi Mowshowitz consider the Community movie worthy?

Oct 2, 4:38 PMOct 10, 3:59 AM

42.38%chance

22572

OptionVotes

YES

1111

899

Will Elon Musk tweet a link to RRN by the end of 2025?

Nov 19, 1:41 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

37.14%chance

3301

OptionVotes

YES

1301

769

Will Moat Door Skip be performed RTA by 2030?

Jan 8, 8:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.82%chance

3125

OptionVotes

YES

What was Brad Spafford going to blow into pieces?

Jan 1, 12:54 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

260

OptionProbability

Nobody, playing with explosives is just good fun

Leftists

Congress

SCOTUS

Will Sri Lanka’s economy collapse under a new presidency before 2030?

Sep 22, 12:32 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

64.74%chance

638

OptionVotes

YES

135

Incline News

Prediction markets for Incline

Prediction markets for Incline

Prediction markets for Incline

Will Tesla launch level 4 robotaxis this summer?

If Eliezer Yudkowsky tried diet and exercise for 6 months, would he lose a reasonable amount of weight?

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Will a Republican win the US presidential election in 2024?/Will a Republican win the US presidential election in 2028?

Will a four-legged robot run faster than a cheetah over a long distance outdoors before 2035?

When will Russia have military encounter with Finland?

Will a Manifold user donate their kidney to me?

Will Zvi Mowshowitz consider the Community movie worthy?

Will Elon Musk tweet a link to RRN by the end of 2025?

Will Moat Door Skip be performed RTA by 2030?

What was Brad Spafford going to blow into pieces?

Will Sri Lanka’s economy collapse under a new presidency before 2030?

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