OptionProbability
Oil prices are $120/bbl or more (Spot Crude, IMF database)
NATO officially deployed into the conflict
Trump is POTUS
Israel-Hamas War is also over
Ukraine is in NATO
China has invaded Taiwan
Elon Musk has fled any criminal charges or sought asylum in any country
The US is in a state of civil war
Harris is POTUS
Zelenskyy and Putin are both alive
69
53
50
45
32
31
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1236
906
GPT-8 era
GPT-7 era
GPT-6 era
GPT-4 era
GPT-5 era
GPT-3 era
74
65
63
59
26
349
217
