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Prediction markets for Islamic State

US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?

Feb 3, 3:21 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

25.43%chance

8838280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1712

584

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Jan 3, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.7%chance

8325746

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8494

2739

Iran Government falls before end of March 2026

Mar 3, 4:51 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

1.64%chance

6717803

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7740

129

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?

Mar 11, 3:15 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

41.54%chance

192683

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1186

843

Will Trump abandon the Iran war?

Mar 6, 2:21 AMApr 26, 1:20 AM

75.33%chance

381931

OptionVotes

NO

YES

175

57

Will Iran successfully attack the mainland US before March 2027

Mar 7, 12:40 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

12.87%chance

191907

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2601

384

Will President Trump put "boots on the ground" in Iran before July 4, 2026?

Mar 15, 7:48 PMJul 3, 11:59 PM

66.94%chance

35845

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

1071

How much did the 2025/06/21 U.S. strikes on Iran delay the nuclear weapon program?

Jun 22, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4543

OptionProbability

>3 months

>6 months

>1 year

>2 years

>5 years

77

56

45

35

20

Will donald trump strike nigeria again

Dec 27, 6:20 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

57.73%chance

14401

OptionVotes

NO

YES

117

86

How many UN members will recognize Somaliland at the end of 2026?

Dec 30, 1:08 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7357

OptionProbability

4 +

3

0–1

2

35

26

21

19

Will Bangladesh turn into an Islamic Republic by 2030?

Dec 16, 10:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.59%chance

7343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138

73

Is Hamza Bin Laden (Osama’s Son) Still Alive? 💣💥🧨✈️

May 14, 2:04 PMMay 15, 1:55 PM

80.47%chance

4146

OptionVotes

NO

YES

203

49

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