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Prediction markets for Islamic State

US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?

Feb 3, 3:21 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

27%chance

3622939

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1644

608

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Jan 3, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.79%chance

5511142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7908

2969

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026

Jan 13, 11:54 PMJun 29, 11:59 PM

62.66%chance

466733

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1296

772

Predictions about Syria in 2026

Dec 9, 10:54 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

312035

OptionProbability

Will Syria be Democratic?

Will Syria be split into more than one state/nation?

Will Syria experience a genocide?

Will Syria be Secular?

29

23

19

17

Will U.S. weapons strike targets inside Iran by March 31, 2026?

Feb 1, 8:55 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

49%chance

251559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

98

Reza Pahlavi enters Iran by end of year 2026

Jan 11, 2:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.79%chance

26652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

231

43

How much did the 2025/06/21 U.S. strikes on Iran delay the nuclear weapon program?

Jun 22, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4543

OptionProbability

>3 months

>6 months

>1 year

>2 years

>5 years

77

56

45

35

20

If Khamenei is forcibly removed from power, will the Islamic regime survive?

Jan 5, 3:23 PMJan 1, 3:20 PM

42.2%chance

17540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117

86

Will donald trump strike nigeria again

Dec 27, 6:20 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

57.73%chance

14401

OptionVotes

NO

YES

117

86

Will Bangladesh turn into an Islamic Republic by 2030?

Dec 16, 10:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.59%chance

7343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138

73

Will Iranian protest successfully over Ali Khamenei's term before 1st march

Jan 14, 11:34 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

13.17%chance

7178

OptionVotes

YES

NO

257

39

Civil War in Iran in 2026?

Jan 13, 1:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

20.73%chance

6149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

196

51

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