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Prediction markets for Islamic State

US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?

Feb 3, 3:21 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

2.64%chance

319225457

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6078

165

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

Jan 3, 3:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.06%chance

9039266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17739

1192

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?

Mar 11, 3:15 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

75.5%chance

368304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1755

570

Will the Iranian regime fall by end of June?

Mar 2, 10:03 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

1.17%chance

382452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

919

11

Will Laura Loomer’s terrorist attack prediction be correct?

Mar 27, 1:11 PMDec 31, 2:09 PM

3.36%chance

312367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

536

19

Predictions about Syria in 2026

Dec 9, 10:54 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

352121

OptionProbability

Will Syria be Democratic?

Will Syria be split into more than one state/nation?

Will Syria be Secular?

Will Syria experience a genocide?

28

25

21

19

Will Iran successfully attack the mainland US before March 2027

Mar 7, 12:40 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

12.19%chance

202021

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2685

373

Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026):

Mar 12, 3:08 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

191671

OptionProbability

Unyielding Islamic Regime

Deal with minimal concessions

Deal with major concessions

Military coup (Artesh)

Popular takeover

Balkanization/long civil war

Venezuela-style puppet state

Voluntary transition of power

35

28

26

4

3

2

2

1

Reza Pahlavi enters Iran by end of year 2026

Jan 11, 2:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.53%chance

411616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

292

34

Will Iran suffer an oil blockade, and will the regime fall this year?

Mar 29, 2:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18759

OptionProbability

Oil blockade, regime stays

Oil blockade, regime changes

No oil blockade, regime changes

No oil blockade, regime stays

90

8

1

1

Will donald trump strike nigeria again

Dec 27, 6:20 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

57.73%chance

14401

OptionVotes

NO

YES

117

86

Is Hamza Bin Laden (Osama’s Son) Still Alive? 💣💥🧨✈️

May 14, 2:04 PMMay 15, 1:55 PM

80.47%chance

4146

OptionVotes

NO

YES

203

49

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