DeepNewz, mobile.
People-sourced. AI-powered. Unbiased News.
OptionProbability
Trump will be the POTUS
FED rates will be below 5% on 1st January 2025
MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be between 300M to 350M on 1st Jan 2025
At Least 1 earthquake with magnitude 8.0 or higher
1 or more Jan 6 rioters get pardoned
Israel attacks Iranian nuclear facilities
Elon removed as doge head
Pope dies
Yoon Suk Yeol impeachment upheld by supreme court
Its revealed that Elon Musk had more children then 13 already known
Famous global brand goes through a rebranding
GPT 5 releases
Russia retains de facto control over Crimea
Avatar: Fire and Ash released
Hollow Knight Silk song released
King Charles will be alive for the whole year of 2025
This whole market gets more than 300 traders
2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US
LEMMiNO releases a new video
Any incumbent world leader diagnosed with cancer after 28th January 2025
Biden gets hospitalised
FED rates will be below 4% on 31st December 2025
Yoon Suk Yeol convicted of insurrection
In one of the monthly polls, >= 80.0% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that weak AGI has been achieved
MKBHD marries his girlfriend Nikki Hair
After the release of GPT-5, every monthly Manifold poll results in a plurality of respondents agreeing that weak AGI has been achieved
Early general elections in Pakistan
At least one world leader (prime minister, president, or monarch) gets assassinated while in office
Alan's Conservative Countdown to AGI >= 97%
Ali Khamenei assassisnated
Attempt to assassinate trump in 2025
Department of Education ended by executive order (even if temporarily)
T1 three-peat as League of Legends world champions
Mike Johnson is not Speaker
Bitcoin reaches 150k sometimes during 2025
Ali Khamenei dies a natural death
In one of the monthly polls, >= 33.3% of Manifold users who provide an opinion agree that non-human intelligence has influenced Earth
Russia-Ukraine war will end in 2025
There will be less MAU at manifold in December 2025 then there would be in January 2025
Marco Rubio fired or "resigns" upon rumors of his impending termination
Californian independence gains enough signatures
Attempted assassination on Zelensky in which he gets hurt but survives
Dodgers win World Series
Los Ratones win against T1, or lose 2-3 (either case should resolve YES, if they don't play against each other this should be NO)
Elections in Bangladesh come to pass (currently planned for late 2025 to early 2026)
Saudi Arabia - Israel normalize relations
At least one Premier of a Canadian province proposes joining the USA
A country leaves NATO
Phillies win the World Series
Harry and Meghan divorce
2025 hotter then 2024
Putin dies
Biden dies
Taylor Swift will be "single" anytime during 2025
In one of the monthly polls, a plurality of Manifold users declares the achievement of weak superintelligence
Congress repeals any tariff
Apple will release first foldable smartphone during 2025
Chuck Schumer resigns
United States government acknowledges the existence of life anywhere other than on or close to Earth
Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80%
Elon Musk diagnosed with COVID-19
Bethesda releases a new game in the Elder Scroll series
China annexes Taiwan
Filibuster abolished
Zelensky Assassinated
Article 5 of NATO invoked
OpenAI o6 or any o6 variant released
Ukraine internal coup attempt
FrontierMath solved (>= 80%) and model is available to any person in the United States willing to pay for it
Kate and William divorce
Sam Altman gets fired again
At least one Premier of a Canadian province takes a concrete step, such as holding a referendum, to join the USA
Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 90%
Putin assassinated
NATO at war with Russia
Trump assassinated
Any newspaper reports a US Default on any debt
US-China war
A country leaves the EU
A nuclear bomb explodes
2025 is the 15th "Year of Three Popes"
US debt ceiling will be scrapped during 2025
United States government acknowledges the existence of non-human intelligence on or close to Earth
One of the Millenium prize problems falls to a model
The winds of winter by GRR Martin will release
USA claims intelligences of extra-terrestrial origin have credibly visited or sent technology to a location within our solar system in an official government statement
Los Ratones go to LoL Worlds
LK99 replicates at last
Greenland Joins USA
End of the world by celery
Ukraine joins NATO
Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80% on or before June 30
A US state secedes from the union
51st US State
Peter Turkson elected Pope
GTA 6 releases
Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero
Harris will be the POTUS
Bitcoin will be > 100k on 1st January 2025
MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be below 300M on 1st Jan 2025
MrBeast Channel Subscribers will be above 350M on 1st Jan 2025
Jimmy Carter will be alive on 1st January 2025
Jimmy Carter will be alive on 31st December 2025
Humanity's Last Exam passed with a grade of 80% on or before March 31
Francis is always Pope
New pope takes name "Francis"
First papal conclave >= 10 ballots
First conclave elects Pope on first ballot
100
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97
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81
79
69
61
59
55
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35
33
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2
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1
1
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0
0
0
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0
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0
OptionProbability
Officials Say
Trump Wins
Court Orders
Found dead
Texas Fire
Civil war
Olympic Gold
Climate Change
Bird Flu
Supreme Court
Trade War
Former President
Southern Border
Talks Between
Officials Declare
On record
First Ever
Talks Begin
Trump Ordered
New report
Earthquake Kills
Ceasefire Agreement
Lawmakers Move
Take Home
Drone Strike
Inflation down
In Setback
Assassination Attempt
declares war
Artificial Intelligence
Officials Deny
Tension Builds
Republicans Lose
National Emergency
nuclear weapon
Death Toll
Most Ever
Trump guilty
at Odds
Third attempt
Second Term
Generation Alpha
European Union
Landmark Decision
Dalai Lama
Strikes continue
Feared dead following
Officials Insist
court allows
Border Crisis
A.I. Legislation
Impeachment Inquiry
Demands Justice
Takes Gold
With Biden
Tipping Point
Olympic Debut
Summer Olympic Games
Hoping To
Sudden Death
In Historic Decision
Musk donates
Cancer cure
Fake news
Keir Starmer
Vows to
AI Czar
threat to democracy
General Condemns
Officials Worry
Chemical weapon
Highest Ever
Swift Becomes
Joins NATO
Alleged genocide
Nuclear war
Biden Announces
Homelessness ban
market crashes
nuclear bomb
Kremlin Says
Haley announces
Tempers Flare
trump’s assassin
Double Knockout
Supreme Court, 9-0
Leaves NATO
Carter Dead
Ghost Trees
Trump Convicted
69 billion
Harris Wins
Revolutionary Song
Artificial General Intelligence
"French Fries"
Occult hand
Effective Altruism
Apocalypse imminent
Biden Wins
TikToker Found
Trump Dead
Florida Man
Holy hell
Putin Dead
Biden Dead
owo what's this
I Like Ike
Astral Codex Ten
Manifold Markets
Williamson Wins
Africa Toto
General Condoms
Dewey Defeats Truman
En passant forced
Titanic 2 Sinks
skibidi toilet
never gonna give you up
Rationalussy Cult
"Vriska did nothing wrong"
100
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100
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100
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100
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100
96
84
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23
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19
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1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
UK has a queen again
USA adds 52nd state
President with Green Eyes elected
Room temperature superconductor discovered
24th Doctor Who regenerates into the 25th
Olympics hosted in Japan again
ChatGPT 10 releases
RSA-2048 cracked
Crewed mission to Phobos
Harlem Globetrotters lose again
2000 Pokemon Released or franchise ceases
Batman enters the public domain
The Beatles music enters the public domain
19th Doctor Who regenerates into 20th
Hershey's reintroduces the Gold bar
Norway Bans Whaling
African company or country lands on moon
Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 1B
Olympics hosted in Africa
Japan Bans Whaling
Tom Scott's This Video Has X Views hits 500M
Longest suspension bridge record broken
Pokemon Card sells for $10M
First hispanic USA president
End support date for Windows 12
Country claims the Bir Tawil triangle
Pickleball in the Olympics
Team Fortress 3 releases
ChatGPT 7 releases
human dies on the moon
Grand Theft Auto 7 releases
Human walks on mars
The next 9.0 magnitude earthquake
The first $10T market cap company
Chicago ends on Broadway
First asian USA president (as judged by self ID & manifold opinion after inauguration)
USA Adds 51st state
USA fully ends embargo on Cuba
Superman enters the public domain
Iceland Bans Whaling
The version after Windows 12 releases
Centennial Lightbulb burns out
Underwater hold breath world record broken
Bitcoin reaches $200K USD
China invades Taiwan or resolves conflict
Destiny retires from regular streaming
Grimace Shake returns to McDonalds
Sitting USA president visits Belize for the first time
Peppa Pig ends
EU reaches 30 member states
First female USA president
Windows 11 end support date
Taika Waititi's Star Wars film releases
India hosts the Olympics
Blood Meridian movie release
marijuana no longer federally a schedule 1 drug in the USA
Star Citizen releases or company ceases
Family Guy ends
Civilization 8 releases
Kingdom Hearts 4 releases
Two grand slams in one MLB game by one player again
ChatGPT 6 releases
South Park ends
Manifold reaches 20K MAU
1500 Pokemon Released
Xi no longer in power in China
Simpsons ends
First Trillionaire (USD)
Bugs Bunny enters public domain
1300 Pokemon Released
Manifold reaches 40K MAU
USA's Doris Miller aircraft carrier launched
Trump Dies
James Cameron's Avatar 4 releases
Human walks on moon again
Price of gold hits $5000/oz
Another Five Nights at Freddy's movie comes out
Putin no longer in power in Russia
Burj Khalifa record for tallest building broken
Bitcoin reaches $150K USD
One piece manga ends
a USA president impeached again
Uber OR Lyft bankrupt / acquired / ceases
Human runs official marathon under 2h
Skibidi Toilet ends
The first $5T market cap company
Half Life 3 releases
Sagrada Familia Church completed
Another MLB perfect game pitched
Russia / Ukraine conflict ceasefire
Book of Mormon ends on Broadway
Shrek 5 releases
Grand Theft Auto 6 releases
USA discontinues or changes penny coin
Twitter gets a new CEO after Linda Yaccarino (or ceases operations)
Death Stranding 2 releases
First $100B revenue media franchise
New Pope after Francis
Civilization 7 releases
Bitcoin reaches $100K USD
Mario 64 120star speedrun WR 1h36m00s or less
Dallas Mavericks play in the NBA championship
Sweden joins NATO
79
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OptionProbability
2025-02-01: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs MONTEREY BAY (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-02-23: REAL SALT LAKE vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-03-02: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-04: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-11: COLORADO RAPIDS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-11: COLORADO RAPIDS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-11: COLORADO RAPIDS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-11: COLORADO RAPIDS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-06: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-11: COLORADO RAPIDS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-06: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-11: COLORADO RAPIDS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-29: LOS ANGELES GALAXY vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-08: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SACRAMENTO REPUBLIC (US Open Cup)
2025-06-26: FC DALLAS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-26: FC DALLAS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-26: FC DALLAS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-26: FC DALLAS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-26: FC DALLAS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-26: FC DALLAS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-26: FC DALLAS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-26: FC DALLAS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-21: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (US Open Cup)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs DC UNITED (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-10: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-17: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SAN DIEGO (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-24: HOUSTON DYNAMO vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-08-31: AUSTIN vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-09-13: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs LOS ANGELES FC (Major League Soccer)
2025-09-21: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs ST. LOUIS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-09-28: SAN DIEGO vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-06: VANCOUVER WHITECAPS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-19: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-19: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-19: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-19: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-19: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-19: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-19: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (Major League Soccer)
2025-10-05: VANCOUVER WHITECAPS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-07: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (US Open Cup)
2025-03-30: SEATTLE SOUNDERS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-01-25: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs LOS ANGELES FC (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-02-05: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs PORTLAND TIMBERS (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-02-08: NEW YORK RED BULLS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-02-12: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs CHICAGO FIRE (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-02-15: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs ST. LOUIS CITY (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-03-09: MINNESOTA UNITED FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-03-16: COLORADO RAPIDS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-03-22: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs CHARLOTTE (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-13: LOS ANGELES FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-20: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs SPORTING KANSAS CITY (Major League Soccer)
2025-04-26: COLUMBUS CREW vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-15: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs INTER MIAMI (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-15: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs INTER MIAMI (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-15: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs INTER MIAMI (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-15: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs INTER MIAMI (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-15: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs INTER MIAMI (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-15: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs INTER MIAMI (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-17: NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-25: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs HOUSTON DYNAMO (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-25: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs HOUSTON DYNAMO (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-25: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs HOUSTON DYNAMO (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-25: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs HOUSTON DYNAMO (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-25: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs HOUSTON DYNAMO (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-25: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs HOUSTON DYNAMO (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-31: ST. LOUIS CITY vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-05-31: ST. LOUIS CITY vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-14: PORTLAND TIMBERS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-06-29: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs LOS ANGELES GALAXY (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-06: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs NEW YORK RED BULLS (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-13: MINNESOTA UNITED FC vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-17: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs FC DALLAS (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-17: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs FC DALLAS (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-17: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs FC DALLAS (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-20: SEATTLE SOUNDERS vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-27: REAL SALT LAKE vs SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (Major League Soccer)
2025-07-09: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (US Open Cup)
2025-07-09: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (US Open Cup)
2025-07-09: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (US Open Cup)
2025-07-09: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES vs AUSTIN (US Open Cup)
100
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100
100
100
100
100
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34
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Joseph Anderson releases long awaited Witcher 3 video
Mr Beast reaches 400M subscribers on youtube
English Wikipedia reaches 7M articles or more
new apple iphone releases
Manifest 2025 happens
Trump enacts tariffs on china
Spider Man Beyond the Spider Verse release date announced
Coyote vs Acme release date is announced
Verdict in P Diddy Sean Combs trial is reached
Trump deportations officially start happening
grok 4 releases
Earthquake magnitude 7.8 or higher somewhere in the world
100th spacex launch of the year
Chat GPT 5 releases
Sailing releases as a skill in Old School Runescape
Trump fires / discharges / replaces a member of his cabinet
Release date of Hollow Knight Silksong known
Manifold reaches 2000 engaged users
Skate 4 releases
Manifold announces they have raised more money through grant/investors/etc
StubHub IPO finalized
Skibidi Toilet ends their original series
Bitcoin BTC reaches $150K USD or more
Lego releases a record breaking set with the most pieces (bigger than Lego Art World Map)
Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases
New record breaking price for a Magic the Gathering card ($3M)
ukraine and russia announce a ceasefire
Imu face reveal in One Piece
Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users
Twitter gets a new CEO
Tom Scott's 'this video hax X views' video reaches 80M views
Taylor Swift announces engagement or marriage
SpaceX IPO finalized
Any nuclear explosion happens (test, bomb, etc)
USA Government has a shutdown
Eric Adams no longer mayor of NYC
2h0m0s marathon barrier officially broken
Stripe IPO finalized
Next Game of Thrones novel release date announced (Winds of Winter)
A commercial airline hijacking
This market reaches 500 traders
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
98
91
88
87
85
53
50
50
50
47
40
39
34
29
28
27
24
23
20
19
18
15
7
7
6
5
5
4
3
OptionProbability
trump is impeached by either house OR senate
Bitcoin reaches 200K usd or more
a second cybertruck explodes (intended or unintended) that makes the news
Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 80M views on Youtube
this market reaches 100 traders
undersea cables reported cut around taiwan
EOD Boxing Day - Dec 26
this market reaches 5k individual TRADES
English Wikipedia reaches 70M PAGES or more
Saw XI Releases in USA
alan greenspan passes away
coup in an african country
noam chomsky passes away
chinese spy balloon incident reported on news
openai loses another board member, or sam altman no longer ceo
another trump assassination attempt
discord IPO happens
2025 nobel peace prize winner announced
Hades 3 announced (game)
EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 28
Last game of the MLB World Series ends
israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will
the "500 poll" reaches its target goal of 500 responses
Taylor Swift announce engagement or marriage
zootopia 2 releases
Spacex launches 150th rocket of the year
EOD Halloween - Oct 31
First game of the MLB World Series starts
manifold raises more money
EOD Lief Erikson Day - Oct 9
Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases
MLB rookie of the year announced
Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 75M views on Youtube
Bitcoin reaches 150K usd or more
stripe ipo happens
Legally Blonde 3 release date announced
GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86
Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users
Cy Young award winner announced
Third dune movie officially announced
trump removes a cabinet member
windows 12 announcement is made
the third Atlantic hurricane of the season
Skate 4 releases
someone reaches 100k traders on creator leaderboard
onepieceexplained reaches 15k subs on youtube
Skibidi Toilet ends their original series
trump starts mass deportations
Imu face reveal in One Piece manga
Bitcoin reaches 125K usd or more
Prong.Studio releases a 3rd product (not an accessory or part for an existing one)
Spacex launches 100th rocket in one year
Chat GPT 5 releases to the general userbase
the second Atlantic hurricane of the season
Sailing releases as a skill in Old School Runescape
the first Atlantic hurricane of the season
Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse release date announced
Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the world
Earthquake magnitude 7.8 or higher somewhere in the world
Killing Floor 3 releases on Steam
grok4 release date
the start of Amazon Prime Day(s) 2025
EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4
the third Pacific hurricane of the season
28 years Later releases in USA
the second Pacific hurricane of the season
chime IPO happens
Spacex launches 75th rocket of the year
First Apple Event of the year
the first Pacific hurricane of the season
manifest 2025 ends
Manifest 2025 starts
Mr Beast hits 400M Youtube Subscribers
Bitcoin reaches 110K usd or more
English Wikipedia reaches 7M ARTICLES or more
claude 4 sonnet releases (or later version)
EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5
Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year
Last day of the NFL draft
Llama 4 released to the general userbase
Joseph Anderson releases long awaited Witcher 3 video
south korean president removed from power
the first Solar eclipse of the year
First Nintendo direct of the year
trump declares war or orders military actions on another country
Ukraine and Russia announce any ceasefire
EOD Ides of March - Mar 15
the first Lunar eclipse of the year
EOD Fat Tuesday/Mardi Gras
trump enacts new or changed tariffs on mexico
new iphone releases in the USA (official date)
Spacex launches 25th rocket of the year
new iphone release date announced (in the USA)
grok 3 release date
nintendo switch successor announced officially
trump enacts new or changed tariffs on china
CGP Grey releases a new video (not a reupload)
doomsday clock announcement
USA President issues 10th executive order
USA President issues 1st executive order
Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends
this market reaches 1k individual TRADES
98
94
86
86
86
83
81
75
74
72
72
72
71
69
69
69
69
67
66
65
65
64
63
63
63
63
61
61
60
59
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55
55
54
54
53
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52
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51
50
50
50
50
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50
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46
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45
44
44
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40
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28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
OptionProbability
Ukraine joins Nato
Luigi Mangione Convicted of Murder
Eric Adams is no longer Mayor of NYC
Officially supported Netflix app releases for the Apple vision pro
Evergrande liquidation completed
A previously unrecognized country receives its first recognition by a UN member state.
Trump will eliminate Daylight Saving Time
Taylor Swift becomes engaged to be married
Any AI-assisted song generated by me and posted at stevesokolowski.com receives 11,111 listens
prong.studio releases another product (not an accessory/add on)
hollow knight silksong releases
GPT-5 released
Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher
Bitcoin hits $65k
Donald Trump becomes US president again
97
95
94
87
86
86
83
81
55
45
41
9
1
0
0
OptionProbability
Large Tech company announces layoffs
Pope Francis dies
New Pope
Tesla catches fire reported by news or https://www.tesla-fire.com/
Three or more teslas catch fire as reported by the Tesla-fire website (or multiple mainstream news)
Nintendo Direct airs
bitcoin reaches a new all time high
joseph anderson releases his long awaited witcher 3 video
new iphone releases
elon musk has another child
Earthquake over 8.0 magnitude
A famous global brand undergoes a rebranding
Dutch coalition resigns
gpt 5 released
New CEO of Twitter
Israel : Hamas Ceasefire
Trump or Biden are hospitalized for any period of time
Skate 4 Release
6 or more people die in a single shooting incident in the united states
Taylor Swift drops a new album (not a Taylor’s Version of an older album actually majority new tracks)
spacex makes >=150 launches in 1 year, all in 2025
White House goes under lockdown for any period of time
any country starts a new invasion of another country
at least one equipment caused death at a theme park in the USA due to ride failure, negligence, or other similar cause (not: pool drowning, natural disasters , medical, or forced violence)
Kanye West is arrested or admitted to a mental hospital
MLB World Series won by the National League team
Russia : Ukraine ceasefire
MLB World Series won by the American League team
official trailer releases for S&box (new facepunch / garry mod game)
there is a need to replace an existing supreme court justice (dies/retires/etc) or they add another justice
hollow knight silksong releases
Assassination of an African head of state
Twitter releases peer to peer payment system, for at least all premium users if not everyone
Skibidi Toilet ends their original series
reddit r/Worldnews unpins the Russia/Ukraine thread
a twitter account besides elon musk reaches 200M followers
Imu face reveal in One Piece
Starliner program terminated
Taylor Swift becomes engaged to be married (to anyone)
Assassination of a North American or South American head of state
Taylor Swift breaks up with Kelce
grimace shake returns at mcdonalds in usa
Aberdeen Football Club are top of the Scottish Premiership table
Trump threatens to deport Musk
Donald Trump diagnosed with COVID-19
chris (strutheo) leaves Manifold and this market is resolved by the @mods
Joe Biden dies
Bitcoin hits $200k USD
23andMe goes private
Alan's Conservative Countdown to AGI reaches 100%
H5N1 pandemic declared
tiktok USA company sale is signed and finalized
The same city wins at least two of the Super Bowl, NBA Finals, Stanley Cup, and World Series
USA government shutdown
nuclear detonation occurs (can be a test)
commercial airline hijacking
destiny talks to joe rogan
Assassination of a European or Asian head of state
Bitcoin closes higher on Festivus (Dec. 23, 2025) than it closed on Festivus (Dec. 23, 2024) [EST] ***
Total funding for the Effective Altruism movement grows >25% compared to 2023
Donald Trump dies
Someone other than Netanyahu becomes prime minister of Israel
MrBeast hits 500 Million subscribers
North Korea and South Korea conflict reignites into a hot war, and results in at least one death
AI wipes out humanity
Vivek Ramaswamy comes out as LGBTQ
bitcoin drops down and reaches 30k or less
Musk : Zuckerberg fight actually happens
Vladimir Putin dies
Chat GPT 6 releases
Spider Man beyond the Spiderverse releases after the delay from March 2024
LK99 or another room temperature superconductor causes another wave of mainstream global news hype
linda yaccarino still ceo of twitter at end of year
Jimmy Carter dies
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
99
99
91
86
84
81
80
75
74
73
73
62
55
52
50
50
50
50
45
45
41
37
34
34
31
31
31
21
20
20
20
20
19
18
18
16
15
14
13
13
12
11
10
10
10
9
8
8
8
6
5
5
5
4
4
4
3
3
3
2
1
1
0
OptionProbability
Vancouver Whitecaps FC
Inter Miami CF
LAFC
Minnesota United FC
Columbus Crew
Houston Dynamo FC
LA Galaxy
Philadelphia Union
Real Salt Lake
Seattle Sounders FC
San Diego FC
Atlanta United
Austin FC
Charlotte FC
Chicago Fire FC
FC Cincinnati
Colorado Rapids
D.C. United
FC Dallas
CF Montréal
Nashville SC
New England Revolution
New York Red Bulls
New York City FC
Orlando City SC
Portland Timbers
San Jose Earthquakes
St. Louis CITY SC
Toronto FC
Sporting Kansas City
27
12
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
OptionProbability
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive during the entire month
noam chomsky alive until end of month
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it
Sam Altman still CEO through end of month
dick cheney still alive at end of month
Tumbles is late to pay back a loan https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba
trump leaves usa at least once
web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month
large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement
a tesla catches fire as reported by mainstream news
nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain
trump posts on twitter/x ten or more times
EF3+ Rated Tornado Impacts the US
NASDAQ hits an all time high
Anthropic or Meta release a new model
$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month
spacex launches 15 or more rockets
Volcano dormant for half a year erupts
Donald Trump mentions Obama's birth certificate
earthquake 7.0+ magnitude
starship launch
100F temperature in nyc at least one day
israel hamas ceasefire
major tech company merger/acquisition announced
An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced
bitcoin reaches 150k or more at least one day
earthquake 7.5 magnitude or higher
silksong game release date announced
another indictment revealing a right wing media personality is taking money from russia
twitter/x banned in another country (announced, even if it can be circumvented)
Hurricane landfalls in Florida
nVidia becomes the largest company in the history of the world (by market capitalization) at least once
silksong game releases
american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran
a supreme court justice is replaced, or announces retirement
spider man beyond the spider verse release date announced
ukraine russia ceasefire
usa troops enter lebanon
usa troops enter syria
luffy finds the one piece
usa bombs or missle strikes lebanon
usa bombs or missle strikes syria
china taiwan military conflict resulting in at least 1 death
destiny goes on joe rogan
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates
another indictment or charges announced against trump
@realDonaldTrump is shot!
winds of winter (next GoT book) release date announced
99
92
92
92
92
90
90
80
69
69
69
69
60
59
58
50
50
50
50
50
45
45
33
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
23
20
20
20
20
17
16
14
14
10
10
10
8
8
5
5
5
4
OptionProbability
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive during the entire month
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it
dick cheney still alive at end of month
web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month
large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement
a tesla catches fire as reported by mainstream news
Sam Altman still CEO through end of month
noam chomsky alive until end of month
nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain
NASDAQ hits an all time high
starship launch
trump leaves usa at least once
Anthropic or Meta release a new model
$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month
spacex launches 15 or more rockets
Hurricane landfalls in Florida
trump posts on twitter/x ten or more times
Volcano dormant for half a year erupts
ukraine russia ceasefire
israel hamas ceasefire
earthquake 7.0+ magnitude
major tech company merger/acquisition announced
100F temperature in nyc at least one day
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates
An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced
nVidia becomes the largest company in the history of the world (by market capitalization) at least once
bitcoin reaches 150k or more at least one day
earthquake 7.5 magnitude or higher
spider man beyond the spider verse release date announced
usa bombs or missle strikes syria
american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran
another indictment revealing a right wing media personality is taking money from russia
a supreme court justice is replaced, or announces retirement
twitter/x banned in another country (announced, even if it can be circumvented)
luffy finds the one piece
usa bombs or missle strikes lebanon
another indictment or charges announced against trump
Tumbles is late to pay back a loan https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba
destiny goes on joe rogan
china taiwan military conflict resulting in at least 1 death
usa troops enter lebanon
usa troops enter syria
silksong game releases
silksong game release date announced
winds of winter (next GoT book) release date announced
98
94
92
80
69
69
69
69
63
63
58
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
41
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
20
20
20
20
20
14
14
14
10
10
6
OptionProbability
Supersonic aircraft breaking the sound barrier
Weapon detonation
Earthquake
77
20
4