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Prediction markets for Kaliningrad

Will Kaliningrad achieve independence from Russia by the end of 2026?

Feb 4, 5:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.49%chance

488207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

942

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before 2030?

Feb 26, 6:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.93%chance

252220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1028

442

Will Russia control Kaliningrad on Jan 1st 2031?

Feb 24, 10:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

79.57%chance

151221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

268

153

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2025?

May 5, 6:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.43%chance

81140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

830

12

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2026?

May 5, 6:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.94%chance

8653

OptionVotes

YES

NO

272

37

Will Ukraine invade any additional "minor constituent" (check description) of the Russian Federation before 2030-1-1?

Feb 6, 7:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12.32%chance

8296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

263

113

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2027?

May 5, 6:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.03%chance

11249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

299

33

Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2028?

May 5, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.16%chance

7187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

282

35

Will Russia lose kaliningrad by 2060

Sep 19, 2:27 AMSep 26, 3:59 AM

36.76%chance

11176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

245

182

Will the entirety of the currently designated Kaliningrad Oblast still be administered by Russia at the end of 2028?

Jun 19, 5:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

87.98%chance

7176

OptionVotes

NO

YES

276

38

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