OptionProbability
Not before 2027
2025
2026
November–December 2023
January–June 2024
July–December 2024
September 2023
October 2023
50
33
14
1
0
Controlled by Azerbaijan; Armenian population expelled/killed
Controlled by Azerbaijan; Armenian population moderately repressed
Controlled by Azerbaijan; Armenian population mostly not repressed
Other
In active armed conflict
Independent state recognized by relevant parties
Part of Armenia recognized by relevant parties
Under foreign or international control / protection
Contested, under pressure by (some of) its neighbors
Contested but mostly peaceful
95
2
No new members
Bougainville
Somaliland
Palestine
New Caledonia
Sovereign State of the Bektashi Order
Quebec
Kosovo
Scotland
East African Federation
Siberia
Tatarstan
Western Sahara
Catalonia
Puerto Rico
Taiwan
Abkhazia
Northern Cyprus
Wales
Northern Ireland
South Ossetia
Transnistria
Nagorno-Karabakh
Crimea
Basque Country
Russia
Korea
Vatican City
Greenland
34
28
15
8
6
3
