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Prediction markets for Kern

Which release of Linux kernel will have the first Rust-only driver for consumer-grade hardware ?

Mar 1, 5:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

106615

OptionProbability

Other

6.18

6.17

6.14

6.15

never

6.8

6.9

6.10

6.11

6.12

6.13

6.16

81

6

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will one person be able to rewrite the Linux Kernel from scratch in Rust, with the help of AI, by EOY 2030?

Jan 2, 2:49 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

30.07%chance

383426

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1525

656

Will I gain kernel-level privileges on my Switch 2, in 2025?

May 7, 3:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40%chance

182062

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

816

Will Android still use the Linux kernel by 2035?

Jun 8, 4:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.34%chance

9695

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1838

917

Will one of the teams that left the race in 2025 start at Etoile de Besseges in 2026?

Feb 10, 5:12 PMFeb 18, 5:59 AM

66.59%chance

5412

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1412

708

Will the Linux kernel still be an actively maintained project in 2050?

Mar 29, 12:48 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

80.43%chance

13314

OptionVotes

NO

YES

444

151

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 16th State Senate district

Jul 2, 3:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

285

OptionProbability

Melissa Hurtado (incumbent)

Mike Boudreaux

Other

79

10

10

Will "Kernel Method" come back before 2031?

May 9, 11:23 AMMar 5, 10:59 PM

56.16%chance

475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

113

88

Will Kernel expand into at least two other cities by end of 2025?

Dec 11, 11:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.23%chance

245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

69

Will NeuroField Neurotherapy use a kernel flow helmet by EOY2028?

Sep 27, 3:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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