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Prediction markets for LA

Will an adversarial attack for the human brain, a la "basilisk" from BLIT, be discovered by 2030?

Jul 29, 5:11 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

23.51%chance

494997

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

786

Will the 2028 Summer Olympics be cancelled or moved out of LA?

Jun 9, 9:59 PMJul 20, 12:00 AM

9%chance

133978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3180

314

"Shangri-La diet" theory becomes widely accepted by scientists before 2030.

Nov 30, 9:36 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

8.78%chance

193924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

945

Will there be a high-speed rail between LA and SF by the end of 2040?

Dec 31, 6:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

43.5%chance

482436

OptionVotes

NO

YES

998

945

Will the SF to LA segment of the HSR be completed by 2040?

Mar 13, 6:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.54%chance

161045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

969

937

Will Trump threaten to move the 2028 Olympics out of LA?

Jun 9, 6:18 PMJul 14, 10:59 PM

43.42%chance

15911

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

876

Will the USA win the most Gold medals by the end of the 2028 LA Summer Olympics?

Aug 12, 4:42 PMAug 21, 3:59 AM

80.63%chance

10730

OptionVotes

YES

NO

994

883

Will LA Metro choose a monorail option for the Sepulveda Transit Corridor?

Sep 6, 4:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

29.01%chance

8697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1564

639

California HSR operational between San Francisco and LA before Mars landing?

Jun 18, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.77%chance

5491

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

976

Will a La Liga regular season match be played in the United States before the end of the 2025/26 season?

Aug 23, 8:26 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

49.35%chance

4250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1013

987

Will "Should CA, TX, OK, and LA merge into a giant ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Nov 9, 4:42 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

5%chance

2164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

264

85

¿Partido ganador de la eleccion a la alcaldia del D.C. en 2025? / Winning party of the C.D. 2025 mayoral election?

Dec 16, 4:50 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

583

OptionProbability

Partido Nacional

Libertad y Refundación

Partido Liberal

Otro / Other

36

34

33

17

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