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Prediction markets for Lula

Who will be the next World Leader to Leave?

Feb 23, 3:06 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11598317

OptionProbability

Benjamin Netanyahu

Lula Da Silva

Volodomyr Zelenskyy

Keir Starmer

Donald Trump

Emmanuel Macron

Javier Milei

Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Vladimir Putin

Anthony Albanese

29

19

16

16

5

5

4

3

2

1

🇧🇷 2026: winner is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado vence

Sep 24, 9:28 AMJan 16, 7:59 PM

45.03%chance

4711308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

43273

34126

Will Lula win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Jun 15, 5:53 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

35.17%chance

353820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1465

376

Will Lula finish his term as President of Brazil?

Apr 25, 6:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

88.28%chance

302737

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1192

946

Who will be on the ballot for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Jan 27, 2:03 AMOct 5, 3:59 AM

142653

OptionProbability

Lula

Léo Péricles

Tarcísio de Freitas

Michelle Bolsonaro

Gusttavo Lima

Fernando Haddad

Romeu Zema

Soraya Thronicke

Simone Tebet

Sofia Manzano

Jair Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro

Ciro Gomes

João Doria

64

63

51

50

27

23

23

17

15

10

8

7

7

4

Will Lula be impeached?

Nov 27, 12:38 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

13.1%chance

132457

OptionVotes

YES

NO

430

125

Will Lula be a candidate for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Jan 9, 5:15 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

63.55%chance

241880

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

773

Will Lula be a key actor in the peace between Ukraine and Russia?

Feb 23, 5:28 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

4.98%chance

161505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2046

896

During a 4 month period, will Lula score a 55%+ approval rating by 2 or more major pooling outlets during his current term?

Feb 1, 1:02 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

73.52%chance

101487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

87

Will Lula's 3rd term in Brazil have above-average (>75%) congressional support?

Nov 12, 5:42 PMJan 2, 2:59 AM

43.36%chance

151318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1072

880

Will Brazilian President Lula pass away in 2025?

Jul 27, 8:21 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

21.49%chance

191314

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1912

523

By the end of Lula's term in office, will he have a better supporting score in the House than Bolsonaro?

Feb 1, 12:52 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

56.96%chance

11970

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1205

805

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