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Top stories

US Sends Seven Warships Toward Venezuela, Prompting Regional Rift

US Foreign Policy

US Sends Seven Warships Toward Venezuela, Prompting Regional Rift

Authors

44

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Maduro

Who was the Polymarket trader who made $400k betting on Maduro's ouster?

Jan 7, 4:13 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

211394705

OptionProbability

Gannon Ken Van Dyke

We don't find out by end of 2026

Other

JD Vance (VP)

Stephen Miller (Homeland Security)

Pete Hegseth (SecDef)

Barron Trump

Marco Rubio (Sec State)

John Ratcliffe (CIA)

Nicolás Maduro (former Venezuelan President)

Eitan Levi (is a civilian associate within the extended personal network of a U.S. Delta Force member)

Jorge Rodríguez (brother of Delcy Rodríguez)

Amanda Rubio (daughter of Marco Rubio)

Aurelio Perez-Lugones (Pentagon Contractor)

98

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Maduro die in U.S. custody?

Jan 3, 7:52 PMFeb 28, 7:51 PM

50.76%chance

7610479

OptionVotes

NO

YES

216

182

Will we learn by 2027 that Maduro’s ouster was an internal coup with US assistance?

Jan 4, 11:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.33%chance

323958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2084

90

Will Maduro have a trial in USA during 2026?

Jan 6, 10:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.18%chance

232540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

670

15

If the Musk/Maduro fight happens and Maduro loses, will Maduro cede power?

Aug 1, 11:23 PMJul 29, 3:59 AM

24.81%chance

112020

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1741

574

Will Trump pardon Maduro?

Jan 3, 2:15 PMJan 4, 2:15 PM

38.43%chance

221235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

79

Will Trump pardon Nicolas Maduro before 1 Feb 2027?

Jan 30, 6:37 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

12.08%chance

121167

OptionVotes

NO

YES

604

75

Will Nicolas Maduro continue to accept migrant deportations of Venezuelans illegally residing in the US before 2028?

Dec 18, 10:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.14%chance

7839

OptionVotes

YES

NO

481

21

Will Maduro be released before 2027?

Jan 4, 1:17 PMJan 5, 1:17 PM

6.3%chance

22824

OptionVotes

YES

NO

386

26

What US charges will Nicolás Maduro be found guilty of?

Jan 4, 5:59 PMJan 5, 5:48 PM

17752

OptionProbability

Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy

Cocaine Importation Conspiracy

Possession of Machineguns and Destructive Devices

Conspiracy to Possess Machineguns and Destructive Devices

61

51

45

42

Maduro back in power before 2030?

Jan 4, 2:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.01%chance

12703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

396

25

Trump administration does another regime change after removing Venezuela's Maduro?

Jan 5, 10:38 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

81.68%chance

9241

OptionVotes

NO

YES

211

47

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