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Top stories

US Sends Seven Warships Toward Venezuela, Prompting Regional Rift

US Foreign Policy

US Sends Seven Warships Toward Venezuela, Prompting Regional Rift

Authors

44

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Maduro

Who was the Polymarket trader who made $400k betting on Maduro's ouster?

Jan 7, 4:13 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

167231211

OptionProbability

We don't find out by end of 2026

Other

Pete Hegseth (SecDef)

Jorge Rodríguez (brother of Delcy Rodríguez)

Aurelio Perez-Lugones (Pentagon Contractor)

JD Vance (VP)

Stephen Miller (Homeland Security)

Barron Trump

Marco Rubio (Sec State)

John Ratcliffe (CIA)

Nicolás Maduro (former Venezuelan President)

Eitan Levi (is a civilian associate within the extended personal network of a U.S. Delta Force member)

Amanda Rubio (daughter of Marco Rubio)

90

6

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Maduro remain president of Venezuela through 2026?

Dec 30, 7:25 PMDec 31, 1:45 PM

2.32%chance

9962646

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6496

154

Will Maduro die in U.S. custody?

Jan 3, 7:52 PMFeb 28, 7:51 PM

45.74%chance

7510384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

203

197

When Coup in Venezuela? Will a new government be established in Venezuela that officially ceases to recognize Maduro?

Jan 4, 3:48 AMDec 29, 11:59 PM

324027

OptionProbability

before December 28 2027 (ET)

before 31 December 2026 (ET)

before September 2026 (ET)

before August 2026 (ET)

before June 2026 (ET)

before April 2026 (ET)

before February 2026 (ET)

before March 2026 (ET)

73

56

49

40

19

4

0

0

Will we learn by 2027 that Maduro’s ouster was an internal coup with US assistance?

Jan 4, 11:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.04%chance

263356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2717

1188

If the Musk/Maduro fight happens and Maduro loses, will Maduro cede power?

Aug 1, 11:23 PMJul 29, 3:59 AM

24.81%chance

112020

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1741

574

End of 2026, will Tumbles think it was good Trump unilaterally removed Maduro?

Jan 3, 10:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.3%chance

28905

OptionVotes

YES

NO

123

63

Will Trump pardon Maduro?

Jan 3, 2:15 PMJan 4, 2:15 PM

15.82%chance

18859

OptionVotes

YES

NO

231

43

Maduro out of custody by EOY 2026?

Jan 3, 7:24 PMDec 30, 7:23 PM

16.91%chance

18310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

137

Will Maduro be released from U.S. custody before his wife?

Jan 3, 7:51 PMDec 31, 7:49 PM

17.51%chance

9253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

217

46

Maduro dead by EoY 2030?

Jan 4, 8:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

5107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

Will the Spanish ex-president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be tried because of his involvement with Maduro’s government?

Jan 22, 5:20 AMJan 30, 11:59 PM

37.61%chance

435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

129

78

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