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Prediction markets for Mainland

Bridge built connecting mainland Italy to Sicily through 2030

Aug 27, 5:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38.89%chance

375903

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1094

742

Will a bridge across the Strait of Messina between mainland Italy and Sicily have started construction by 2030?

Jul 5, 9:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

56.25%chance

334974

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1211

786

Will Iran successfully attack the mainland US before March 2027

Mar 7, 12:40 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

11.73%chance

252970

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2743

365

Will Sicily be connected with the mainland by a bridge before 2038?

Mar 18, 10:23 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

55.43%chance

222142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1090

861

By 2063, will the Republic of China annex any territory in the mainland?

Mar 29, 2:30 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

19%chance

211509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1523

819

Russia attacks or invades China mainland by mid 2028

Mar 1, 11:44 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

3.9%chance

10619

OptionVotes

YES

NO

899

187

Will Trump make a statement supporting mainland China over Taiwan during his term?

Feb 23, 1:05 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

41.46%chance

15434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

Will direct passenger ferry service between mainland Taiwan and mainland China resume by end of 2026?”

Apr 5, 8:44 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

8.91%chance

10280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

165

92

Will Blizzard games still be legally available in Mainland China at the end of 2030?

Apr 10, 4:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.11%chance

13249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1209

905

Bridge built connecting Hainan to mainland China through 2040

Aug 28, 2:07 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

42.04%chance

7107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

151

146

Conditional on a Sicily-mainland bridge being built, will unemployment in Sicily decrease wrt to Italy?

Oct 26, 2:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64%chance

431

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

93

Will China invade Taiwan directly or will they apply a salami tactic and only take over small islands near the Mainland?

Aug 16, 11:39 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

61.28%chance

430

OptionVotes

NO

YES

127

97

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