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Prediction markets for Marche

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

59.91%chance

176211240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5780

3435

By March 2026, will 3+ prominent US politicians advocate for banning open-weight AI models?

Sep 20, 5:51 PMApr 2, 6:59 AM

41%chance

5214619

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

834

Fewer US programming jobs 1 year from March 13, 2025? [Tegmark / Ng bet]

Mar 13, 11:40 PMMar 20, 11:59 PM

53.02%chance

505406

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

941

Will another Ivy+ university lose the general ability to enroll international students by end of March 2026?

May 22, 9:57 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

57.02%chance

202185

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1152

868

Will a former US president accuse Trump of interfering with the 2026 mid-term elections, before March 2027?

Feb 26, 9:17 PMMar 1, 1:00 AM

24.98%chance

71320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2732

1577

Will there be a pandemic at least as deadly as COVID-19 by March 1st 2044?

Feb 29, 11:21 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

63.21%chance

241238

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1488

437

Chinese military parade on September 3, 2025, features marching humanoid robots

Jul 25, 5:57 PMSep 4, 11:59 PM

29.72%chance

151064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1538

650

Will Mark Zuckerberg blame Trump threats/pressure for Meta content policy changes? (By March 2029)

Jan 18, 2:04 AMMar 31, 1:29 PM

27.66%chance

9930

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1617

618

There are no USA Presidents that had Green eyes. Will there be one by March 1st 2063?

Mar 21, 5:50 PMMar 2, 4:59 AM

28.47%chance

12547

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

926

Will Lesswrong get fewer visits in March 2026 than in March 2023?

Mar 28, 11:13 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

25.44%chance

15497

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1260

889

Will the Taliban still be in power in Afghanistan five years from now? (March 2024-2029)

Mar 19, 8:33 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

76.62%chance

16398

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

963

Will the definitive function/purpose of the Roman Dodecahedron be identified before March 6th, 2035?

Mar 6, 5:20 PMMar 7, 6:59 AM

45.8%chance

5122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

924

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