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Prediction markets for Market Square

[Metaculus] Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?

Jun 20, 7:27 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

7.04%chance

1017511

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3634

275

Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?

Oct 16, 9:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.69%chance

326882

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2653

1601

Will a 3x3 magic square of distinct perfect square numbers be proven impossible by end of 2025?

Jun 13, 11:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.04%chance

306116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3707

625

Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?

Jun 6, 12:13 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

54.13%chance

795708

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1957

1369

Will Russia control at least 90% of Donbass at the end of 2025?

Aug 17, 3:50 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

15.12%chance

274895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2370

422

Will there be more deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon in 2025 than in 2024?

Jan 29, 11:08 AMFeb 1, 3:59 AM

29.21%chance

133310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3865

53

Does the CKM matrix violate unitarity (near the 0.1% level)?

Aug 29, 2:26 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

22.72%chance

241362

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

952

Will a self-driving ride hailing service be available to the general public in Greater Toronto by the end of 2035?

Oct 25, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.76%chance

71200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1985

504

Net territory gained by Russia in 2025 (in square kilometres)

Nov 3, 11:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.44%chance

1739

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1443

693

Will the increase in global average temperature from 1978 to 2048 be above 1 degree Celsius?

Apr 8, 7:51 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

73.96%chance

18653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1465

769

Conservationists purchase Rothbury estate (England's largest land sale in 30 years)?

Oct 29, 11:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

53.75%chance

378

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

928

In which Quarter will open the first new part of Venice MarcoPolo Airport with Gates A?

Jul 31, 4:37 PMMar 30, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

3/2025

4/2025

1/2026

Other

25

25

25

25

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