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Prediction markets for Market Square

[Metaculus] Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?

Jun 20, 7:27 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

7.14%chance

1117513

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3607

277

Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?

Oct 16, 9:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.68%chance

387946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3651

1346

Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?

Jun 6, 12:13 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

23.98%chance

807018

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3197

598

Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses in any month of 2026?

Jan 10, 1:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.3%chance

273162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1318

762

Does the CKM matrix violate unitarity (near the 0.1% level)?

Aug 29, 2:26 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

22.72%chance

241362

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

952

Will a self-driving ride hailing service be available to the general public in Greater Toronto by the end of 2035?

Oct 25, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.76%chance

71200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1985

504

Will the increase in global average temperature from 1978 to 2048 be above 1 degree Celsius?

Apr 8, 7:51 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

76.93%chance

18803

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1637

732

Will Russia control at least 85% of the four annexed oblasts at the end of October 2026?

Jan 10, 10:39 PMOct 31, 11:59 PM

43%chance

6785

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

869

Is the best packing of 17 squares inside a square with the sides of precisely the feigenbaum constant?

Dec 21, 6:57 AMDec 1, 9:59 PM

6.76%chance

8291

OptionVotes

YES

NO

441

75

Conservationists purchase Rothbury estate (England's largest land sale in 30 years)?

Oct 29, 11:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

58.12%chance

4178

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1178

849

Will Russia control at least 95% of Donbass at the end of January 2027?

Dec 31, 1:06 AMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

52.04%chance

485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

Zohran Mamdani raps again

Jan 6, 4:15 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

13.46%chance

231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

98

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