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Prediction markets for Market Square

[Metaculus] Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?

Jun 20, 7:27 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

7.04%chance

1017511

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3634

275

Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?

Oct 16, 9:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.25%chance

357419

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3130

1464

Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?

Jun 6, 12:13 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

28.2%chance

806768

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2947

686

Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses in any month of 2026?

Jan 10, 1:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.11%chance

171619

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1366

772

Does the CKM matrix violate unitarity (near the 0.1% level)?

Aug 29, 2:26 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

22.72%chance

241362

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

952

Will a self-driving ride hailing service be available to the general public in Greater Toronto by the end of 2035?

Oct 25, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.76%chance

71200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1985

504

Will the increase in global average temperature from 1978 to 2048 be above 1 degree Celsius?

Apr 8, 7:51 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

76.93%chance

18803

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1637

732

Will Russia's net territorial gain in February 2026 exceed 400km²?

Feb 4, 1:08 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

29.04%chance

10704

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1563

640

Will Russia control at least 85% of the four annexed oblasts at the end of October 2026?

Jan 10, 10:39 PMOct 31, 11:59 PM

44.52%chance

3605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1117

896

Will I be able to purchase a house robot by the end of 2026?

Mar 13, 4:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30%chance

15333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

The End of the Russia–Ukraine War in 2026

Jan 30, 11:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7279

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2027

Before Oct 2026

Before Dec 2026

Before Jun 2026

Before Aug 2026

Before Apr 2026

Before Feb 2026

36

28

28

24

24

12

4

Conservationists purchase Rothbury estate (England's largest land sale in 30 years)?

Oct 29, 11:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

53.75%chance

378

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

928

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