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Prediction markets for Market Square

[Metaculus] Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?

Jun 20, 7:27 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

7.14%chance

1117513

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3607

277

Will Ukraine gain more territory than it loses in any month of 2026?

Jan 10, 1:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

93.34%chance

7512928

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3737

244

Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?

Oct 16, 9:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.35%chance

4611855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4880

1150

Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?

Jun 6, 12:13 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

20.49%chance

817268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3447

526

Will Russia control at least 95% of Donbass at the end of October 2026?

Dec 31, 1:00 AMNov 1, 11:59 PM

46%chance

222009

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1226

751

Does the CKM matrix violate unitarity (near the 0.1% level)?

Aug 29, 2:26 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

22.72%chance

241362

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

952

Will a self-driving ride hailing service be available to the general public in Greater Toronto by the end of 2035?

Oct 25, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.76%chance

71200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1985

504

Will Russia control at least 85% of the four annexed oblasts at the end of October 2026?

Jan 10, 10:39 PMOct 31, 11:59 PM

40%chance

7843

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

817

Will the increase in global average temperature from 1978 to 2048 be above 1 degree Celsius?

Apr 8, 7:51 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

76.93%chance

18803

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1637

732

Will a Midjourney Scanner be available for paid public full-body scans in the US by Dec 31, 2027?

Jun 18, 3:36 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

8.53%chance

8695

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1561

1280

Will Ukraine militarily recapture Sumy Oblast by the end of the war?

Jun 4, 11:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.06%chance

3650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

870

Conservationists purchase Rothbury estate (England's largest land sale in 30 years)?

Oct 29, 11:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

68.6%chance

5478

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1478

677

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