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Prediction markets for Market Square

[Metaculus] Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?

Jun 20, 7:27 AMJan 2, 1:00 AM

7.14%chance

1117513

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3607

277

Pope Leo XIV mentions prediction markets before 2027?

Oct 16, 9:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.08%chance

4812070

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4661

1179

Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?

Jun 6, 12:13 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

16.92%chance

817531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3762

454

Will Russia control at least 95% of Donbass at the end of October 2026?

Dec 31, 1:00 AMNov 1, 11:59 PM

5.69%chance

385797

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3712

161

Will Russia control at least 85% of the four annexed oblasts at the end of October 2026?

Jan 10, 10:39 PMOct 31, 11:59 PM

14.39%chance

122149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2440

410

Does the CKM matrix violate unitarity (near the 0.1% level)?

Aug 29, 2:26 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

22.72%chance

241362

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

952

Will a self-driving ride hailing service be available to the general public in Greater Toronto by the end of 2035?

Oct 25, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.76%chance

71200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1985

504

Will the increase in global average temperature from 1978 to 2048 be above 1 degree Celsius?

Apr 8, 7:51 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

64.63%chance

191035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

932

Will Ukraine militarily recapture Sumy Oblast by the end of the war?

Jun 4, 11:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.73%chance

4680

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1112

900

Will Russia control at least 95% of Donbass at the end of January 2027?

Dec 31, 1:06 AMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

32.98%chance

11669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1458

666

Will Ukraine control more territory after the war than it would have under Trump's 28-point plan?

Jul 6, 4:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

6612

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Conservationists purchase Rothbury estate (England's largest land sale in 30 years)?

Oct 29, 11:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

68.6%chance

6480

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1478

677

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