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Prediction markets for Market St

Will the Milky Way still exist in 2030? [long-term interest rate market]

Jan 9, 8:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

95.08%chance

77311312

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4397

228

Will my startup RESMP.DEV become a unicorn, over 1 billion USD market cap, before the the end of 2026?

Jul 5, 6:19 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.52%chance

72137696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32247

7663

What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030

Oct 14, 3:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

222114545

OptionProbability

Nvidia

Alphabet

SpaceX

Apple

Microsoft

Anthropic

OpenAI

Amazon

Strategy₿ (MSTR)

Other

Tesla

TSMC

Broadcom

Meta

A company that did not exist at the posting of this question

Samsung

Saudi Aramco

Tencent

IBM

Baidu

Walmart

Berkshire Hathaway

Intel

Eli Lilly

ByteDance

ASML

Oracle

16

14

13

11

10

9

8

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Manifold Markets still be around by 2030?

Jul 16, 9:18 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

92%chance

4427807

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1130

955

In the next five years, will Nvidia's stock drop by 30% from its price at market close on 3/7/24?

Mar 8, 1:23 PMMar 9, 4:59 AM

14.42%chance

9611055

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2522

274

Starmer vs Burnham decision market - will Labour win a majority in the next general election?

Jun 20, 10:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

135579

OptionProbability

**Assuming Burnham is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

**Assuming Starmer is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

31

6

Unspecified Stock Market Variable (USMV)

Jun 1, 7:55 PM

242376

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1459

1148

Jane Street guilty of Indian market manipulation or settles for $100M+?

Jul 5, 11:39 AMJul 6, 11:33 AM

36.21%chance

282177

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1327

754

Before 2028, will a sovereign state directly manipulate a real-money prediction market?

Aug 12, 9:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.17%chance

9959

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1204

831

Will Sabine Hossenfelder mention any prediction markets on string theory or BSM physics before the end of 2027?

Jun 16, 5:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41%chance

2923

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3681

2100

Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030

Dec 16, 1:20 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

61.92%chance

17472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1278

777

By 2030, will I have strong regrets about having created some market about an aspect of my personal life?

Jun 11, 6:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.04%chance

1087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

972

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