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Prediction markets for Market St

Will the Milky Way still exist in 2030? [long-term interest rate market]

Jan 9, 8:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

97%chance

47228980

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5690

176

Will my startup RESMP.DEV become a unicorn, over 1 billion USD market cap, before the the end of 2026?

Jul 5, 6:19 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.9%chance

67131661

OptionVotes

YES

NO

36656

7470

What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030

Oct 14, 3:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19791390

OptionProbability

Alphabet

Nvidia

Apple

Microsoft

OpenAI

Anthropic

Tesla

Amazon

Other

Strategy₿ (MSTR)

Broadcom

Meta

TSMC

Oracle

A company that did not exist at the posting of this question

SpaceX

ASML

Saudi Aramco

Tencent

IBM

Baidu

Walmart

Berkshire Hathaway

Intel

Eli Lilly

ByteDance

18

18

12

12

7

6

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

In the next five years, will Nvidia's stock drop by 30% from its price at market close on 3/7/24?

Mar 8, 1:23 PMMar 9, 4:59 AM

16.73%chance

9310771

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2354

305

Unspecified Stock Market Variable (USMV)

Jun 1, 7:55 PM

222244

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1329

1172

Jane Street guilty of Indian market manipulation or settles for $100M+?

Jul 5, 11:39 AMJul 6, 11:33 AM

41.63%chance

242019

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1184

845

Will Manifold Markets still be popular at the end of 2026?

Apr 16, 5:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.41%chance

551898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

771

Manifold bans "Permanent Stock" markets before 2030

Dec 15, 8:40 PMDec 31, 5:01 PM

30.22%chance

181019

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1077

713

Will the US stock market have experienced another lost decade before 2034?

Sep 16, 8:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.32%chance

18994

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1227

919

Before 2028, will a sovereign state directly manipulate a real-money prediction market?

Aug 12, 9:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57.1%chance

8909

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

867

Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030

Dec 16, 1:20 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

61.92%chance

17472

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1278

777

By 2030, will I have strong regrets about having created some market about an aspect of my personal life?

Jun 11, 6:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.04%chance

1087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

972

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