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Prediction markets for Market St

Will the Milky Way still exist in 2030? [long-term interest rate market]

Jan 9, 8:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.65%chance

78320760

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5375

186

Will my startup RESMP.DEV become a unicorn, over 1 billion USD market cap, before the the end of 2026?

Jul 5, 6:19 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.68%chance

73139147

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31300

7709

What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030

Oct 14, 3:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

228123219

OptionProbability

Nvidia

SpaceX

Apple

Alphabet

Anthropic

Microsoft

OpenAI

Other

Tesla

Amazon

Strategy₿ (MSTR)

Meta

TSMC

Broadcom

Samsung

Saudi Aramco

Tencent

IBM

A company that did not exist at the posting of this question

Baidu

Walmart

Berkshire Hathaway

Intel

Eli Lilly

ByteDance

ASML

Oracle

21

13

11

11

11

10

9

4

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will any Big Tech Company Start a Public Prediction Market by the end of July 2027

Aug 2, 12:38 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

5131809

OptionProbability

Meta

Amazon

SpaceXAi

Microsoft

Reddit

Bytedance

OpenAI

Anthropic

Discord

Google

62

14

14

13

12

10

6

6

6

5

Will Manifold Markets still be around by 2030?

Jul 16, 9:18 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

92%chance

4629366

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1130

955

Unspecified Stock Market Variable (USMV)

Jun 1, 7:55 PM

3624390

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1659

1446

In the next five years, will Nvidia's stock drop by 30% from its price at market close on 3/7/24?

Mar 8, 1:23 PMMar 9, 4:59 AM

18.91%chance

9911453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2221

334

Starmer vs Burnham decision market - will Labour win a majority in the next general election?

Jun 20, 10:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

155892

OptionProbability

**Assuming Burnham is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

**Assuming Starmer is Labour leader**, Labour wins a majority

31

6

Will Sabine Hossenfelder mention any prediction markets on string theory or BSM physics before the end of 2027?

Jun 16, 5:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33%chance

31541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4299

1739

Will I outperform the market by individually picking/trading stocks?

Jul 30, 5:35 PMSep 1, 11:00 PM

53.26%chance

181014

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

937

Before 2028, will a sovereign state directly manipulate a real-money prediction market?

Aug 12, 9:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.17%chance

9959

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1204

831

By 2030, will I have strong regrets about having created some market about an aspect of my personal life?

Jun 11, 6:01 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.04%chance

1087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

972

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