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Prediction markets for Market Street
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
50.42%chance
976741418
OptionVotes
10003
9896
Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion during his lifetime?
Sep 20, 7:29 PMJun 29, 3:59 AM
85.09%chance
11076712
OptionVotes
2913
484
Will the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?
Jan 6, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
18.32%chance
2818339
OptionVotes
2112
474
OptionVotes
3197
598
Will I get hit by a bike before I graduate high school?
May 2, 4:09 PMJun 11, 6:59 PM
23.59%chance
332211
OptionVotes
1157
930
Jane Street guilty of Indian market manipulation or settles for $100M+?
Jul 5, 11:39 AMJul 6, 11:33 AM
41.63%chance
242019
OptionVotes
1184
845
OptionVotes
1051
951
Will the Wall Street Journal create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Jan 9, 10:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
14.42%chance
15577
OptionVotes
1455
887
Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?
May 18, 3:55 AMMay 27, 3:51 AM
53.61%chance
7311
OptionVotes
1075
930
US government loses more than $50 million in cryptocurrency by end of 2028
Mar 16, 10:33 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM
45.42%chance
5298
OptionVotes
1096
912
OptionVotes
1168
856
OptionVotes
1061
942