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Top stories

San Francisco Lets Waymo, Premium Rideshares Return to Market Street in Pilot

San Francisco Lets Waymo, Premium Rideshares Return to Market Street in Pilot

Authors

3

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Market Street

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53%chance

995746565

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10534

9400

How many Anthropic/OpenAI employees will resign in September 2026 due to ethical concerns?

Sep 10, 8:16 AMOct 3, 6:59 AM

7836816

OptionProbability

1+ OpenAI employees resign

2+ Anthropic employees resign

2+ OpenAI employees resign

3+ Anthropic employees resign

3+ OpenAI employees resign

4+ Anthropic employees resign

4+ OpenAI employees resign

5+ Anthropic employees resign

5+ OpenAI employees resign

48

45

24

22

18

12

11

7

6

Will the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026?

Jan 6, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.23%chance

4724076

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1370

730

Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?

Jun 6, 12:13 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

16.92%chance

817531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3762

454

Will GME reach $30 before the end of 2026?

Jan 8, 9:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.64%chance

64542

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1405

712

Jane Street guilty of Indian market manipulation or settles for $100M+?

Jul 5, 11:39 AMJul 6, 11:33 AM

30.12%chance

312983

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1523

657

Will I get hit by a bike before I graduate high school?

May 2, 4:09 PMJun 11, 6:59 PM

19.97%chance

362529

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1350

877

Did Jane Street do anything wrong in India?

Jul 9, 9:59 PMJan 1, 5:51 PM

47.56%chance

251610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

952

Will large amounts of GTA VI-related time-off requests be reported within two weeks of release?

May 27, 2:12 PMNov 20, 7:59 AM

31.26%chance

91154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1483

674

Will the Wall Street Journal create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 10:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.42%chance

15577

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

887

US government loses more than $50 million in cryptocurrency by end of 2028

Mar 16, 10:33 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

45.42%chance

5298

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

912

Rippling wins its lawsuit against Deel by 2028?

May 12, 5:33 PMJan 1, 6:33 PM

52.98%chance

5183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

942

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