Mason News
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Prediction markets for Mason
OptionProbability
100
100
56
42
42
40
39
37
37
31
31
31
30
28
22
20
17
16
15
15
14
11
8
8
8
8
6
6
6
6
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
0
0
0
Will any Mox member (as of Sep 11 2025) be a billionaire 5 years from now?
Sep 12, 1:36 AMSep 12, 1:29 AM
44.36%chance
2913437
OptionVotes
1120
893
OptionProbability
100
100
58
38
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Jan 9, 6:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
60.32%chance
343263
OptionVotes
1102
779
Will Mason Greenwood play in the Premier League again?
Feb 2, 5:18 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
30.55%chance
182450
OptionVotes
1429
708
Will Bryan Caplan create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Jan 9, 6:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
27.56%chance
251467
OptionVotes
1589
587
Will Tyler Cowen create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Jan 9, 6:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
14.5%chance
17950
OptionVotes
1703
786
Will Trump serve any time in a jail or prison by July 4th, 2029, for any past or new convictions?
Jul 27, 3:31 PMJul 5, 3:59 AM
7%chance
14523
OptionVotes
364
27
Will Robin Hanson (professor, blogger, and inventor of prediction markets) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Jan 5, 6:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
3.51%chance
10398
OptionVotes
432
148
Roland Fryer [Harvard Economist] Multiple Choice markets (many topics, many market lengths)
Dec 10, 9:05 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
8280
OptionProbability
64
57
44
33
31
24
24
0
0
0
0
0
Will Sam Darnold be the only QB from the 2018 class to win a Super Bowl?
Feb 13, 7:42 AMFeb 21, 11:59 PM
20%chance
4131
OptionVotes
200
50
Will mason, Jose Luis Ricon, Evan Lin, Henry Bass, adic_9, janus/repligate all get to live in a treehouse by 2027?
Jul 27, 11:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
39.31%chance
125
OptionVotes
124
80